Earth Bureau | Visit the Middle East for a year and a half, what small abacus to fight?

Author:Qilu Yiyi Time:2022.07.13

Reporter Zhao Enting

From July 13th to 16th, US President Biden will be the first trip to the Middle East since taking office. In accordance with the Watch Press Secretary John-Pierre's official announcement in the middle of last month, Biden will visit Israel, Palestine and Saudi Arabia in succession, and will attend the National Cooperation Committee of the Gulf Arabian Arabic National Cooperation Committee (Haihe Club) and Iraq, Jordan, Egypt Three Kingdoms summit.

Worship

Biden originally planned to visit the Middle East at the end of June, but was exposed to the plan to postpone it early last month. It has been a year and a half since Biden came to power. He has visited European countries four times and visited Asian countries. The main direction of the government's external force is not in the Middle East.

This is completely opposite to the Middle East foreign policy of the previous US government. Trump broke the convention after coming to power, and used the Middle East as the first visit destination. He visited Saudi Arabia, Israel and Palestine. Action tone.

The Trump administration's Middle East policy has reshaped the geopolitical pattern: to curb Iran as the main axis, unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, and strive to build a military alliance- "Middle East version of the small NATO"; comprehensively strengthen the United States and Saudi Arabia and Israel's ally relations , Strive to accelerate the reconciliation of Israel and the Arab countries; in the root cause of Pakistan and Israel, the root cause of the Middle East, while supporting Israel, and adopting radical operations such as relocation to the embassy and recognition of Jerusalem positions.

Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed

The Trump administration's "combined fist" came down. When Bayeng entered the White House in January last year, the situation in the Middle East has changed dramatically compared with his deputy president in January 2017 -the relationship between the United States and Iran is extremely tense, Bakin -Israel ’s war re -ignited, Israel and UAE and other Arab countries have achieved normalization of relations. The relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia has improved. The influence of Turkey’ s regions has increased greatly. The Weiwei is clear.

Obviously, the Middle East is not a preferred option for Biden's government foreign policy -at least at this stage, otherwise it will not be late. Looking at the performance of the United States in the Middle East in the past and a half years, it is not difficult to find that the Bayeng government partially regained the "extraction" of the Obama period, and partially inherited the Trump's "re -balance" approach.

In the later period of Obama, the United States and other countries reached the Iraqi nuclear agreement. The relationship between the United States and the United States and the United States and Saisha had a significant cooling. Trump went on the other hand, and now Biden chose the "Folding Middle Route": returning to the Iraqi nuclear agreement, but the performance of the contract was delayed for a long time; Explaining the radicals of the ex -predecessor on specific dispute issues; continue to support and promote Israel to reconcile with more Arab countries; and continue to promote the concept of regional military alliances.

Relevant party talks at the Iranian nuclear agreement. (Expressive)

To this end, Biden needs to straighten out the relationship with related countries through this trip to the Middle East.

The first is Saudi Arabia. Compared with Bitter Trump's relationship with Saudi Arabia, Biden stopped on the stage and stopped selling Saudi Military sales, stopped supporting Saudi -led blow -leading military operations, and announced the investigation report of the Saudi journalist Kashuji. Refers to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed, which clearly states that the relationship between "re -calibration" and Saudi Arabia. The high -level exchanges of Misha also changed from Trump and Muhammad to Byden and Saudi Kings Salman.

The Saudi reporter Kashuji was hit by Saudi Arabia, which is in line with Bayon's like to engage in the so -called "human rights diplomacy" style. After the Kashuji case in October 2018, Biden criticized Saudi Arabia, and even let Saudi Arabia "pay" and "become a bitch" when he was running for president.

A typical case of US -Saisa relations to cool down again is that the international energy prices have risen after the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict. In order to cope with the high domestic inflation pressure to cope with high oil prices, Biden called Saudi Arabia leaders -Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed — Communicate the increase in crude oil to suppress the price of oil, but was rejected by the other party. In fact, in terms of energy supply, due to the large number of shale oil production capacity in the United States in recent years, the United States has changed from a crude oil consumer to an exporter, and the between Misa has changed from supply and demand to a competitive relationship.

Today, Biden has a 180 -degree turn on the US Saudi relations, which is good for Saudi Arabia. In early June, the Organization of the Organization of the Petroleum (OPEC) and the non -OPEC oil -producing country decided to increase the increase in the upper limit of production. At the same time, the two parties of the Yemen conflict will extend the national ceasefire time for two months. In this regard, the United States praised Saudi Arabia's role, and it was a great meaning of creating an atmosphere and alleviating embarrassment for the first visit of Biden.

Saudi reporter Kashuji (expansion film)

Secondly, it is even harder to "harmonious mud" on the issue of Pakistan. After a series of operations during the Trump period, the Pakistani -Israeli relationship that Biden took over was no longer like four years ago. The United States and the relationship between the United States and the United States have stepped out of the haze of the Obama period, but the relationship between the United States and Palestine is almost completely interrupted.

Although the Bayeon government reiterated its support for the "two countries", the US Embassy in Israel is still in Jerusalem instead of the previous Tel Aviv, and it has not recovered the state of the United States that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. More importantly, Biden is still promoting more Arab countries to reconcile Israel with more Arab countries including Saudi Arabia, and this is essentially based on the "Century Agreement" based on the Trump administration. , The marginalization of Pakistani and Israeli is a factor. In other words, in the past, the main tone of the geopolitical structure of the Middle East was centered on the Pakistani issue, and the Arab country headed by Saudi Arabia was not as powerful as Israel. Now this core issue is replaced by Iran, and in the context of Russia and Ukraine's conflict leading to high international energy prices, energy supply and price issues have also become the main issues.

In this context, although the trip to Biden the Middle East helps to restore the relationship between the United States and Palestine, the balance of Palestinian -Israeli issues has been unbalanced, and Palestine and other countries that support Pakistan have completely seen the true face of the United States. How to get the trust of the intervention mediation door? Frankly speaking, the issue of Pakistani is not the top priority of Biden, and it takes time to deal with the "痼 disease" in the Middle East. Biden can "can't afford it". A question mark.

In 2018, the U.S. embassy in Israel moved from Traviv to Jerusalem. (Expressive)

Furthermore, under the premise of curbing Iran, balanced the return of the Iranian military alliance to return to Iran. This involves at least three issues, that is, continue to play with Iran but to ensure that the relevant performance negotiations do not break, continue to promote the normalization of Israeli relations with Arab countries, and putting the strategy of the United States and some countries in the Middle East in the form of the "Middle East Version" issue. The conformity point transforms into reality.

The negotiations on the recovery of the Iraqi Agreement Agreement, as early as April last April, began in Vienna, Austria. The EU as the middleman and the United States and Ichon started indirect negotiations. However, after the eight rounds, the negotiations fell into stagnation, and the "one step was to go" reflecting the "three hearts and two intentions" in the United States. It not only hoped that Iran's nuclear ability, and did not want to abandon the goal of curbing Iran in essence. Recently, the related negotiations restarted in Qatar, but the show of Mei and Yishe's shouting was as before.

This time, Biden goes to the Middle East, and it will inevitably communicate and coordinate with Iraqi policy with Israel, Saudi Arabia and other regions, especially the restoration of the Iran nuclear agreement. Once the Iran nuclear agreement is recovered, the shackles of Iran's shackles are loosened, and then talked about curbing Iran, it is the so -called "Middle East version of the small NATO".

This "在 idea" began to brew during the Trump period. As the Gulf -headed Arab country headed by Israel and Saudi Arabia is the United States' "left arm and right arm" in the Middle East, it is imperative to promote Israel and Arab countries and solutions. Biden continued to work in this regard, which requires him to improve the relationship with Saudi leaders. When the Israeli politics re -seizure, the United States has stable relationships. On this basis , Egypt's Three Kingdoms Meeting, outlines the embryonicity of the "Middle East Version".

The sea conferences include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Barin, and Kuwait.

The direct goal of this potential alliance is to fight against Iran. More importantly, the United States will take it as a tool for Russia's influence that Russia has continuously enhanced Russia in recent years.

With the Obama administration "drawn" from the Middle East, the United States has weakened its influence in the Middle East. Although the Trump administration "returns" the Middle East, Russia has rapidly expanded its regional influence by intervening in the Syrian civil war. At the same time, the Arab countries including Saudi Arabia and other bays have gradually realized that many times they are not expected to be in the United States, and diplomatic independence has become increasingly strengthened. Russia improves the level of cooperation.

After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the Middle East country did not "stand in line" in the West as the United States wishes, but adopted a neutral attitude. Previously, the Israel Bened government had participated in the situation of the Military and Ukraine. Communicate.

The "one advance and one retreat" of Russia and the United States in the Middle East forced Bayeng to re -examine Middle East diplomacy, which means that the United States is facing more complicated and bulls of diplomatic reality. At present, the risk of high inflation in the United States, the risk of economic recession increases, and the fire violence and racial contradictions have intensified. The mid -term elections in the November of the Congress are gradually entering a critical moment.

Russian President Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed