The oil price of refined oil products ushered in the short term of "two consecutive declines" in the short term, and oil prices will still operate in the shock

According to the information of the National Development and Reform Commission, according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, and in accordance with the current mechanism of oil prices of refined oil products, from 24:00 on July 12, domestic auto and diesel prices have reduced 360 yuan and 345 yuan per ton, respectively.

The price adjustment is the 13th price adjustment since this year, and it is also the first time that the "two consecutive declines" in the year. After the price adjustment, refined oil prices have shown the pattern of "ten rises and three declines and zero stranded" within the year. According to the calculation of market institutions, after the price increase, 92#gasoline was reduced by 0.28 yuan per liter, 0#diesel was reduced by 0.29 yuan per liter, and the general private car with a fuel tank capacity was calculated. Essence Xu Wenwen, an refined oil analyst in Longzhong Information, said that for the 100 kilometers of fuel consumption of 7L to 8L in the urban area, the average cost of every 100 kilometers per driving is reduced by about 2 yuan; for large -scale logistics and transportation vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, on average The fuel cost of 100 kilometers was reduced by about 11.6 yuan. Jin Lianchuang analyst Ma Jiancai said that the current domestic retail 92#gasoline price range is 9 yuan/liter to 9.15 yuan/liter. After the retail price of this round is redeemed again, except for Tibet and Hainan and other markets. Return to the "8 yuan era", the price level will be 8.7 yuan/liter to 8.85 yuan/liter, and the price level of 0#diesel will be 8.35 yuan/liter to 8.5 yuan/liter, which is obvious from the price before June 28.

The monitoring of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission showed that the international oil price declined significantly during the price adjustment cycle of this round of oil (June 28 -July 11). On average, Brent in London and WTI in New York decreased by 4.95%lower than the previous round. During the price adjustment cycle, the global economy may fall into the worry of the decline, the market for sale in the crude oil market, and the price of oil prices has declined sharply. The US CPI CPI was a 40 -year high in May. The market is expected to raise interest rates sharply. The central banks of developed economies such as the European Union and the United Kingdom have also increased. Both the net bulls of Lente and the WTI crude oil futures in New York fell to the lowest level since April 2020. In addition, the growth of US crude oil inventory and the number of drilling platforms have increased to the highest factors since March 2020, and the US dollar indexes have hit new high factors for nearly 20 years. The oil prices of the two cities fell to a low point in nearly 3 months, and the price of WTI in New York fell below $ 100 per barrel. On average, Brent and WTI oil prices in London decreased by 4.78%and 5.13%compared with the previous price adjustment cycle, respectively.

The National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center predicts that oil prices will still operate in the short term. On the one hand, the United States has strengthened sanctions on Russia and Iran. Libya, Ecuador's domestic turbulence affects crude oil production, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC member states have limited idle capacity and cannot increase production. Constracts; on the other hand, the market is worried about the global economic recession and the demand for crude oil is suppressed. Under the influence of multiple factors, the frequency of fluctuations in oil prices may increase.

The next price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on July 26. Li Yan, an analyst of Longzhong Information, believes that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a downward trend. At present, although the supply is still expected to be tightened, the Fed may raise interest rates again this month, and the market's concerns about economic and demand for the market will continue. It is expected that the probability of regulating the price of refined oil in the next round is greater. Ma Jiancai also said that the current supply and demand game of the international market continues, and the price trend fluctuates in the short term, and the probability of a new round of retail price is a high probability.

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