Nancai fast comments: continuously enhanced the confidence of market players and stimulate effective financing needs

Dong Ximiao (chief researcher of Zhailian Financial)

Recently, the Social financing scale and financial statistics data report released by the People's Bank of China in June 2022 and the first half of the year showed that social financing and financial data in June and the first half of the year reached a new high, both in terms of total and structure than expected. This shows that the market's effective financing demand has recovered significantly, and the economy is gradually recovering. In the next step, we should continue to take measures to consolidate the trend of recovery and further stabilize the macroeconomic market.

There were two highlights of financial data in June and the first half of the year. First of all, the total growth is growing rapidly. The report shows that the broader currency (M2) at the end of June increased by 11.4%year -on -year, and the narrow currency (M1) increased by 5.8%year -on -year, all higher than the growth rate at the end of last month and the same period last year. This shows that monetary policy has increased adjustment and market liquidity is relatively rich. In June, the scale of social financing increased by 5.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.47 trillion yuan year -on -year; RMB loans increased by 2.81 trillion yuan in June, an increase of 690 billion yuan year -on -year. Among them, the scale of new social integration and RMB loans in June reached a record high in the same period. In the first half of the year, the cumulative increase in social financing was 21 trillion yuan, which was 3.2 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 13.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 919.2 billion yuan year -on -year. The rapid increase in RMB loans and the increase in government bonds are the main driving factor for the growth of social financing.

Second, the structure is significantly optimized. The report shows that from the perspective of the credit structure, the loan structure of residents' loans or enterprises (affairs) is continuously optimized. Since this year, the increase in RMB loans is mainly from short -term loans and bill financing. For example, in May, the loans of enterprises (things) increased by 729.1 billion yuan year -on -year, of which short -term loans and bill financing increased by 264.2 billion yuan and 712.9 billion yuan, respectively. From the perspective of the first half of the year, the proportion of medium and long -term loans has risen rapidly. In the first half of the year, household loans increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, of which the medium- and long -term loans increased by 1.56 trillion yuan, accounting for 71.6%. This shows that with the steady development of the real estate market, the demand for residential housing consumption has steadily recovered. In the first half of the year, the loans of enterprises (affairs) increased by 11.4 trillion yuan, of which the medium- and long -term loans increased by 6.22 trillion yuan, accounting for 54.6%. This shows that corporate confidence and expectations have begun to recover, and effective financing demand has risen steadily.

Since this year, due to the complex factors at home and abroad, my country's economic development has faced "triple pressure". In order to support the stability of the economy and employment, the country and localities have introduced a solid policy and measures to stabilize the economy, and increase the support for the real economy, especially small and medium -sized enterprises, especially small and medium -sized enterprises. The fiscal policy has made ahead of time to increase tax cuts and fees, especially in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, the issuance of special bonds in local government basically completed the annual amount, boosting the scale of government bonds' net financing scale, and then boosted the growth of the total amount of social integration. In terms of monetary finance, the steady monetary policy implementation of counter -cycles and cross -cycle adjustment, market liquidity is relatively abundant, precise drip irrigation of key areas and weak links, active effects are showing, and the intensity of support for real economy support is increased. At the same time, real estate financial policies have been adjusted in a timely manner to meet the reasonable needs of real estate enterprises' financing and residential housing consumption.

In short, as the impact of the epidemic continues to decline, my country's stable economic measures have accelerated the landing, the social life and production order have gradually recovered. In the first half of the year, corporate confidence and expectations continued to improve. Effective financing of the real economy is accelerating. And accelerating the rebound created favorable conditions.

However, while seeing the significant improvement of financial data, we must also see the hidden concerns. In the first half of the year, RMB deposits increased by 1.882 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.77 trillion yuan year -on -year, of which household deposits increased by 10.33 trillion yuan. This shows that residents' willingness to savings is still stronger, and investment and consumption demand needs to be improved. From the perspective of residential loans, although the demand for residential credit has improved, the recovery speed is still slow. Data show that in June, residents' medium- and long -term loans decreased by 98.9 billion yuan year -on -year, and from January to June, a total of 1.87 trillion yuan was reduced. In the next step, measures should be taken to better stabilize the employment and income of residents, boosting the willingness and ability of residents to consume; increase the adjustment of differentiated housing credit policies, reasonably grasp the credit of credit, effectively meet the demand for self -occupation and improvement of residents ; Enrich the financial management channels of residents and promote the effects of effectively transformation of residents' savings into long -term funds required for the development of the real economy.

In the second half of the year, the annual economic growth goals are still challenged. We should continue to implement a package of stable growth, employment, and stable prices, and take more practical and effective measures to coordinate the relationship between the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic development; The difficulty of resolving the market entity and the steady recovery of the real economy, strengthening the confidence of market entities, and stimulating effective financing needs. In particular, monetary policy must adhere to the "master of me", comprehensively use measures to reduce interest rate cuts, and optimize and improve from the two aspects of total and structure. Financial institutions should further enhance social responsibility. In the case of adhering to the overall commercial sustainability and risk, they should appropriately optimize the allocation of financial resources, innovate products and services, and better meet the areas and industries that are affected by the real economy. Demands increase the support services of market entities, especially manufacturing and small and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, and new citizen groups.

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