Witness history!1 euro = 1 dollar, the US dollar index hit a new high for nearly 20 years!How does it affect the RMB exchange rate?

On July 11, the US dollar index rose 1.24%to 108.2193, a new high in the past 20 years.

On the afternoon of July 12, the euro fell to 1.0005 against the US dollar, that is, 1 euro = 1 USD, the first time in December 2002.

Analysts pointed out that the strength of the US dollar is the direct cause of the euro's plunge in the US dollar. Since the beginning of this year, under the market's expectations of the Fed ’s accelerated interest rate hike, the US dollar index has continued to rise. On Tuesday, the US dollar index has been high to 108.55, a new high in November 2002. As of press time, the US dollar index was reported at 108.40.

From a deeper point of view, analysts believe that the interchange rate of the euro to the US dollar is close to the price of Europe and the United States in terms of economic fundamentals, energy dependence, and monetary policy.

In addition, driven by the decline in the middle price, the exchange rate of the RMB on July 12 was low in the market for the US dollar. The daytime close of the period was reported at 6.7345, which fell 269 basis points from the previous trading day.

You need to be vigilant

"Affected by European energy issues, it has been softened due to non -US currencies such as the euro on Monday, and the US dollar index has risen sharply. Compared with other non -US currencies, the RMB trend is not bad. "A foreign exchange trader in Shanghai said.

Xingye research pointed out that the focus of market transactions in the short term lies in the tightening of the Fed and the decline of the euro area. The US dollar index still has the potential for upward, and the euro will face the risk of exchanged with the US dollar. In terms of RMB exchange rate, the scale of foreign capital inflows in land converters has reached a high level of history, and it is necessary to be alert to the risks of the border flow of A -share capital. After weakening the support of foreign capital increases A shares, the pressure on the purchase of foreign exchange and the US dollar index will appear. It is necessary to be alert to the RMB exchange rate to continue to open the repair.

Euro against the US dollar parity

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Research Institute, pointed out that the exchange rate of the euro to the US dollar is close to 1: 1. The most fundamental reason is that the macroeconomic fundamentals of the two economies of the United States and Europe have occurred in the marginal changes that are conducive to the United States. It is not conducive to the relative changes in the euro zone. The continuous existence of Russia and Ukraine's conflict is the main reason for the deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals in the euro zone.

He believes that, on the one hand, in the context of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the sanctions on the euro zone on Russia have caused the normal economic and trade exchanges between the two and reduced the efficiency of resource allocation. On the other hand Economic production and residents' lives have an impact, increasing the operating costs of the euro zone. "Both have formed a large degree of economic form of the euro zone economy."

CCTV news reports also pointed out that the weakening of the euro exchange rate is mainly due to the slowdown in European economic growth in the near future, and the market has continuously reduced the expectations of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike expectations. In addition, the market's expected increase in the US Federal Reserve Commission's expected increase in interest rate hikes at the end of July has led to a stronger exchange rate in the US dollar.

According to reports, market participants believe that the European Central Bank expects to curb inflation through interest rate hikes, and is worried that interest rate hikes will cause some southern European countries to increase debt pressure. Therefore, the movement is slow. The tightening pace of the European Central Bank lags behind the Fed, which puts the euro exchange rate.

Will the euro continue to fall?

Will the euro continue to fall? According to Shanxi Securities, regardless of the intensity of tightening or economic support, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar still has further downward logic. The strengthening of the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar is passively under pressure. In the second half of the year, it may fall below the parity to challenge the 0.98 support point.

Shanxi Securities also believes that the euro is derogatory and degraded in the final analysis, reflecting that my country is facing pressure on European exports, so it affects the profit expectations and profitability of related companies. At the same time, the European debt crisis alert resurgence or will the staged impact on the A -share market risk appetite. It is recommended to keep attention to the European Central Bank, but the above -long and long -term impact of the above shock is limited and it is not sustainable. my country's market is expected to be based on economic upward definitation. And gradually reproduce the advantages of "shelter".

How long can the US dollar be strong?

Zheng Houcheng believes that in the short term, the probability of the US dollar index will also be located in a high range, mainly based on the following four reasons.

First of all, from the current situation, there are signs of countermeasures against Russia, which will increase the intensity of the Russian -Ukraine conflict and further benefit the macroeconomic economy in the euro zone. Secondly, the Russian conflict cannot be effectively resolved in the short term. The probability will destroy the investment environment of the euro zone, so that funds will flow out of the euro zone and enter the United States, and the Lido dollar index.

Third, although the European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates in July, considering that the Federal Reserve will maintain a higher rate of interest rate hike in the short term, and the high probability of starting the process of shrinkage, which means that in general, the US monetary policy The degree of "eagle" is higher than the euro area and supports the US dollar index.

Fourth, the trend of global economic recession and even entering a depression will continue in the short term, and continuing Lido as the US dollar as the US dollar.

Wang Youxin also said that he looked at it in the short term. However, he reminded that with the increase in the risk of economic recession in the United States, the negative effects of economic fundamentals will gradually exceed the impact of monetary policy, and the US dollar exchange rate will fall.

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