Wang Yunjin: In June, credit demand rebounded, structural improvement

Zhongxin Jingwei, July 12th.

Author Wang Yunjin Zhixin Investment Research Institute senior researcher

According to the data disclosed on the 11th of the central bank, the new RMB loan was 2.81 trillion yuan in June, and the growth rate of credit balance rose to 11.2%at the end of June, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the end of last month; the social increase in June was 5.17 trillion yuan; 6 At the end of the month, the size of the social merger growth rate was 10.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The growth rate of M1 (narrow currency) at the end of June was 5.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the end of the last month; the growth rate of M2 (broad currency) was 11.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the end of the last month. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 1.368 trillion yuan, an increase of 919.2 billion yuan year -on -year; social integration increased by 21 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2 trillion yuan year -on -year. The increase in credit and social integration in January, March, and June made up for the lower growth of February and April. In the first half of the year, credit growth was generally stable, and credit demand was restored.

In the second quarter, a number of bailout policies landed densely, which has obvious effects on credit and social integration. In the second quarter of the second quarter, the market liquidity was relatively abundant, supported small and medium -sized loans and residential housing loans, and new national financing guarantee funds re -guaranteed cooperation business scale of more than 1 trillion yuan, increased by 800 billion yuan in policy bank credit quota, inclusive small and micro A number of policies such as the increase in loan support tool quota and support ratio have doubled, and the active fiscal policy continues to make efforts, effectively realizing the stabilization amplification capacity, and has achieved a greater policy effect on the rational growth of credit and social finance.

Among the credit structure, the new bill financing in June reached the minimum level of nearly 14 months, down to less than 100 billion yuan, and the phenomenon of "rushing" has been significantly improved; Credit recovery until the same period of 2021. Corporate credit expanded sharply by 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 752.5 billion yuan year -on -year. It may be recovered by investment confidence and pulled major construction projects. The medium and long -term credit increased significantly by 1.45 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period of 2021.

In addition to credit stimulating, the increase in government bond financing has also been one of the main force of the increase in social bond financing. In the first half of the year, the issuance of special bonds for local government was basically completed the annual amount; the issuance of issuance in June significantly accelerated, and government bond financing increased by 1.62 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 867.6 billion yuan year -on -year. In the second quarter, the three off -table financing continued to drop, but the scale was reduced month by month. The increase in the RMB loan of social finances exceeds 3 trillion yuan, indicating that loans of non -bank financial institutions have declined. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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