On the 139th day, the Russian -Ukraine conflict is positive and normalized

On July 12, 2022, the Russian and Ukraine War progressed to 139 days.

Based on the information of all aspects, the author believes that the Russian -Ukraine conflict erupted on February 24 is positive and normalized.

The so -called persistence is divided into two aspects: Ukraine and the international situation. In Ukraine, even in the near future, Russia announced the end of special military operations and unilateral suspension of fire. As long as Russia does not return to the border before February 24, Ukraine will not give up. Russia and Ukraine will form a military actual control line in Ukraine, and then the two parties will start confrontation and competition on the actual control line. This kind of confrontation and contest along the real control line, the scale of the battle will not be too large, the intensity will not be too strong, but it may last a long time. In terms of international situation, the sanctions and restrictions on Russia such as the United States and other Western countries such as the United States and other Western countries caused by the conflict of Russia and Ukraine will continue.

The so -called normalization refers to whether in the United States, such as the United States, or Russia, or Ukraine. Over time, they will obtain a balance in war, construction, economic development, and trade. The output and demand of international trade, rather than the beginning of the war. Regardless of the parties, the relevant parties do their best to divide the victory and defeat in a short period of time.

On July 11, the Dutch Prime Minister Ratt visited Ukraine and met with Ukraine President Zelezki. Laut said to Zellennki: "The duration of this war may be longer than we want or expect."

Lutter's words are very targeted.

Because Zeleki said earlier, I hope to end the battle before the winter comes. A few days ago, Zelei also ordered the Ukrainian military to prepare the military for millions of troops. He was going to fight back. According to reports, the main counterattack direction of the Ukrainian army is Hermone. To this end, Ukraine's senior management shouted to the people of the Hermuson Russian army, asking them to evacuate quickly, because the counterattack is coming, you quickly avoid it, and don't be injured by the fire.

Lutter's words were splashed with cool water for Zellezzky and made him sober.

In terms of conflict to normalization, the signs are relatively obvious.

The first is the assistance from Western countries such as the United States. At the beginning, it was a large water irrigation. Now there is a trend of fine water. The United States promised to assist $ 54 billion, of which security assistance actually provided $ 8 billion. Although the $ 8 billion has surpassed the US $ 7.4 billion in US $ 7.4 billion in the first 5 years before the Afghanistan war, it is clear that the United States has a backhand. The US Minister of Defense, which has been convened by dozens of countries in the United States, has opened several times. The purpose is to balance the military assistance to Ukraine in accordance with the strength of their respective countries to achieve the purpose of long water flow and normalization.

Secondly, in the EU and Russia's energy contest, the US position has begun to soften.

The representative event is the problem of retention of the turbine of the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline component. This machine is a key component exported to Russia to Germany and was previously sent to Canada for repair. After imposing sanctions against Russia and other Western countries in the United States, Canada detained this machine, while Russia reduced natural gas exports to Germany through "Beixi-1". The German side was nervous and coordinated. As a result of coordination, Canada sent machines to Germany and then returned to Russia by Germany. In this case, Canada has not violated its sanctions against Russia, and Russia can also export natural gas to Germany normally.

It is worth noting that Canada sent machines to Germany. Ukraine is opposed and the United States is in favor. On July 11, a US State Department spokesman Price stated in a statement: "In the short term, the turbine will allow Germany and other European countries to supplement their natural gas reserves, enhance their energy security and elasticity, and (enhance it) against Russia. Turn energy weapons (capability). "

Third, about Ukrainian grain exports. On July 11, Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin and Ukraine President Zelei Sky went to discuss the establishment of the Black Sea Grain Export Safety Corridor. On the same day, Ukraine media reported that the Ukrainian Navy escorted the first eight batch of foreign ships used to export Ukrainian Channel to Ukraine Port.

All of the above, obviously have conflicts and conflicts, trade belongs to trade, and the taste of well water will not be committed.

This is normal.

So far, there are two boots that have not landed. The two boots are on the ground, which also marks that the Russian -Ukraine conflict has officially entered the stage of persistence and normalization. These two boots, one, is the end of Russia's announcement of special military operations and unilateral ceasefire; the other is that Russia merged its area occupied into Russia.

The two boots landed, the military real control line was formed, and then a long contest and tug -of -war.

Maybe it will last for many years.

Source: Economic Observer

Edit: Weekend

- END -