The price of photovoltaic silicon material has reached a new high for nearly ten years

Recently, the price of domestic photovoltaic silicon materials (polysilicon) has risen, with a maximum of 300,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 250%from early 2021, and hit a new high in nearly 10 years.

7月6日，中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布的最新数据显示，国内单晶复投料价格在28.8万~30万元，成交均价为29.16万元，周环比涨幅为1.85%；单晶The price of the secret material is 286,000 to 298,000 yuan, the average transaction price is 289,600 yuan, and the period ratio increases by 1.9%.

From the perspective of manufacturers, all silicon materials companies have basically been signed in July, and even some orders are exceeded until early August, and the mainstream quotation will be 288,000 to 296,000 yuan. There are also a small number of scattered orders sold at a relatively high price, with the price of 296,000 to 300,000 yuan.

Insiders believe that recently, due to the suspension of production and expansion of emergencies, the domestic silicon market supply is limited, and the downstream photovoltaic industry has risen. The silicon market is in the situation of extreme shortage of supply, driving the price to continue to rise. In the short term, the supply of silicon material is still expected to decrease, and the price is expected to increase. However, with the release of new capacity release and maintenance devices in the later period, the tight supply of the silicon material market is expected to alleviate, and the price may be reduced, but the overall operation will still be maintained.

From the perspective of demand, in February this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration's "Planning Plan for the Large Wind Power Photovoltaic Base Planning Planning Planning Planning Planning Planning for Gobi, Desert, and Deserts" proposed that by 2030, the total installation machine will be about 455 million kilowatt. Subsequently, large installedrs led by the five major power generation central enterprises successively announced the landscape installation target in 2022, and the demand for photovoltaic installations suppressed in 2021 was released. According to data from the National Energy Administration, from January to May, the total number of new installations in my country was 23.71GW, a year -on -year increase of 41.34%. Among them, in May, the number of new photovoltaic installations in my country was 6.83GW, a year -on -year increase of 139.25%, and continued to maintain a high -speed growth trend.

From the perspective of the supply side, in June, due to power -limiting or planning to discontinue production, the total supply of silicon materials in China has decreased compared to expected. The lack of supply caused by temporary reduction of production has increased in the short term, which has insufficient silicon material supply. According to the latest production planning plans for each enterprise, the current status of silicon materials in July will continue. It is expected that the output of silicon materials in China in July is about 58,000 tons, a decrease of about 3200 tons from the previous month, and a decrease of about 5%.

It is understood that in July, Xinjiang GCL, Oriental Hope, Tianhong Ruike and other companies planned to reduce production or maintenance, with a total of about 6,700 tons of silicon material. During the same period, GCL Technology, Baotou Xinte, Yunnan Tongwei, and Asian Silicon Industry 4 companies expanded production capacity to release a small amount of production capacity. In addition, the output of individual companies had normal fluctuations. Including imports, it is expected that the supply of silicon materials in the domestic market in July is about 65,000 tons, which can only meet the silicon wafer output of about 24.5GW. Compared with the silicon material required for the current production conditions that already have the production conditions, there are still existence of the silicon material required for the production capacity. Large gap.

"The investment threshold and technical added value of silicon material are high, so the expansion speed can not keep up with the middle and lower reaches." People in the photovoltaic industry said that the deep cause of the price increase of silicon materials is because the speed of the middle and lower reaches is beyond the upstream silicon material end. It is expected that the price of short -term silicon material will rise.

However, with the release of new capacity of silicon materials in the later period, the market supply and demand situation is expected to improve.

The Everbright Securities Research Report pointed out that in July, the 5 companies planned for maintenance. The overall three quarters of silicon materials may not be expected. In the context of driving the global photovoltaic demand in overseas markets, the price of silicon material will be maintained at a high level. However, with the resumption of production in the market in the third quarter, the new production capacity has been resumed in production and maintenance devices. It is expected that the tight supply and demand of silicon materials in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be alleviated and the price may be reduced.

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