The new energy sector has plummeted and dragged the market

Summary:

(1) On July 11, a fierce adjustment of the New Energy Circuit has been adjusted, and a stock review message is fermented on the weekend, but it is essentially disturbed by factors such as Europe and the United States, the performance disclosure of A -share interim performance, and the peak of the science and technology board lifting. After fluctuations, after the accumulation of a certain increase in the growth sector, the overall cost -effectiveness will weaken, and the market structure may be more balanced.

(2) After the market on July 11, the central bank announced the financial data in June, which exceeded expectations as a whole. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the tone of monetary policy may not have a large reversal, and credit conditions may still be loose. Although the short -term epidemic still has repeated risks, the restrictions on economic growth have eased, and the economy can be moderate and optimistic in the future.

(3) As the disclosure of the interim report is coming, the investment opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector can be concerned in the near future. Yao Ming Kant's performance in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, showing that the overall performance of the listed head CXO company still maintains a high -speed growth. Many active changes in the industry are happening, such as the performance of companies in the generic drug industry to bottom out in batches, profit bottom and profit expectations have stabilized; pharmaceutical investment and financing improved, and Sino -US relations ease the emotional recovery of catalytic industrial chain.

text:

On July 11, the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities opened low and low all day. Looking at the market, coal, non -ferrous, and cars have fallen first, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, home appliances and other anti -trend. As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 1.27%to 3313.58 points, and the CSI 300 and the GEM index fell 1.67%and 1.78%, respectively. A shares barely exceeded trillion throughout the day, breaking over trillion on the 12th in a row.

The outflow of the northbound funds narrowed in the afternoon, sold 1.068 billion yuan throughout the day, and sold more than 3.2 billion yuan in the early days.

Source: Wind

On July 11, the new energy track was adjusted sharply. A stock review news was fermented on the weekend. But essentially, as we mentioned in "Science and Technology Chips gradually crowded, pay attention to the early rising sectors" and "Liang Xing: ETF Investment Strategy in the Third quarter", Europe and the United States rate hikes, A -share interim performance disclosure, science and technology board lifting the ban on the ban on the ban on the ban on the ban on science and technology boards, etc. Under the disturbance of the factors, the market fluctuations are expected to increase in July. After the accumulation of a certain increase in the growth section of the scientific and technological growth sector, the overall cost -effectiveness will weaken, and the market structure may be more balanced.

However, from a fundamental point of view, the automobile industry, including new energy vehicles, does not have problems. On July 11, the Chinese Automobile Association disclosed the latest data. In June, domestic automobile production and sales completed 2.499 million and 2.502 million, respectively, with a month -on -month increase of 29.7%and 34.4%, respectively, an increase of 28.2%and 23.8%year -on -year. The China Automobile Association judged that since June, the supply chain affected by the epidemic affected by my country's automotive industry has been fully restored, and enterprises have accelerated the rhythm of production to make up for losses.

The growth rate of new energy vehicles was still higher. In June, the production and sales of 590,000 and 596,000 were in June, respectively, an increase of 26.6%and 33.4%month -on -month, with a year -on -year increase of 1.3 times, and the market share reached 23.8%. The China Automobile Association comprehensive judgment on the automotive market throughout the year. It is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 5.5 million units throughout the year, a year -on -year increase of more than 56%.

Source: China Automobile Association

Recently, there are also many support policies for new energy vehicles. Last week, the Ministry of Commerce proposed that the issue of exemption of new energy vehicle vehicle purchase tax policies was postponed. Township support policies, actively support the construction of charging facilities, and so on.

With the policy support of the country and localities, electric models with high oil prices and more performance advantages have been launched one after another. New energy vehicles have continued to appear. Domestic new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate penetration, and the middle and long -term high growth attributes remain unchanged. After the short -term new energy vehicle ETF (159806) and the car ETF (516110), etc., after accumulating a certain increase, they should pay attention to the risk of phased adjustment.

After the market on July 11, the central bank announced the financial data in June, overall exceptional expectations:

(1) New RMB loan is 2810 billion yuan, the market is expected to be 2440 billion yuan, and the previous value is 1890 billion yuan.

(2) The scale of social financing is 5170 billion yuan, the market is expected to be 4650 billion yuan, and the previous value is 2792.1 billion yuan.

(3) M2 is 11.4%year -on -year, the market is expected to be 10.8%, the previous value is 11.1%; M1 is 5.8%year -on -year, and the previous value is 4.6%.

Source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities

In the year -on -year increase in social finance, government bonds accounted for most (867.6 billion year -on -year), followed by enterprises for medium and long -term loans (613 billion year -on -year). At the same time, residential loans declined significantly year -on -year (20.3 billion year -on -year). Huatai Securities believes that in June, the high -increase government financing volume and short -term backlog demand for social finances cannot be explained that the vitality recovery of micro -subjects cannot be explained.

The first is the historical high of the issuance of special bonds, and it also leverages a large number of infrastructure supporting loans. Among them, the amount of 800 billion policy loans that will increase by the National Frequency will increase faster. Second, the backlog demand during the epidemic is centrally released, including the demand for the restoration of the capacity of the company's capacity to restore normal operations, and the demand for houses and car purchase of houses.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, the tone of monetary policy may not have a large reversal, and credit conditions may still be loose. Compared with the first half of the year, the growth rate of social finances faces several major support factors: the low level of the epidemic economy has improved, and the demand for physical financing is expected to recover; real estate out of the market will help drive residents' long -term loan growth; policy financial efforts, and last year under the end of last year Half -year low base effect, etc. Although the short -term epidemic still has repeated risks, the restrictions on economic growth have eased, and the economy can be moderate and optimistic in the future. As the interim report disclosure season is coming, you can pay attention to investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector recently. On the evening of the 11th, Yaoming Kangde released the performance forecast of the first half of 2022. The company's revenue in the first half of the year was 17.756 billion yuan, an increase of 68.52%year-on-year, and the previous company announced the upper limit of 63%-65%of the company; The increase was 73.29%, and the non -net profit was 3.850 billion yuan, an increase of 81.00%year -on -year. The overall performance of the listed head CXO company still maintains a high -speed growth. On the one hand, due to the influence of the new crown orders, on the other hand, with the implementation of new capacity for two consecutive years, the performance of the head CXO company is also high.

Since February 2022, the global medical investment and financing situation has declined significantly, and it has gradually been repaired in May-June. At the same time, the secondary market innovation drug index has been bottomed out. The general biological technology ETF (XBI) and the Hong Kong stocks Hang Seng Medical Care Index gradually picked up after the bottom in mid -May. The A -share biomedical index gradually picked up after the bottom of April, and the trend of the innovative drug industry chain was obvious.

From January to June 2022, the global biomedical industry investment and financing situation, source: Soochow Securities

This round of the pharmaceutical sector has fallen from a high level in July 2021. Especially in April this year, under the disturbance of multiple factors such as the new crown epidemic and overseas environment, the medical services and pharmaceutical outsourcing services of the pharmaceutical sector have encountered a more extreme blow Several black swans superimposed, which fully reacted the pessimistic expectations of the market. At present, the level of valuation of the sector is still equivalent to the low point in 2018.

Many active changes are happening at the moment. For example, the performance of companies in the generic drug industry to bottom in batches, profit bottom and profit expectations have stabilized; pharmaceutical investment and financing improved, and Sino -US relations ease the recovery of the emotional recovery of catalytic industrial chain. In the future, you can actively pay attention to investment opportunities for biomedical ETF (512290), medical ETF (159828), and innovative medicine CSI ETF (517110).

risk warning

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