"Beixi No. 1" starts 10 days of annual maintenance from this year, and all Europe has panicked.

According to Reuters, on July 11, local time, Russia transported the largest single pipeline of natural gas to Germany- "Nord Stream 1" to start annual maintenance work, so it is expected to be suspended for 10 days (July in July (July July Natural gas delivery from 11th to July 21st.

The operator Nord Stream AG confirmed that the suspension of supply in central Europe started on Monday at 6 o'clock on Monday, and the natural gas supply of the pipeline fell to zero after the following hours.

The "Beixi No. 1" pipeline sends 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia through the Baltic Sea every year. However, in the middle of last month, Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. said that Russian Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. was forced to reduce the "Beixi No. 1" gas transmission because Siemens did not deliver the repaired gas compression unit in time. According to Siemens, parts were sent to Canada for repair, but have not been paid due to Canada's sanctions on Russia.

Siemens, Germany, said on the 10th that Canada has made a decision to return the "Beixi No. 1" natural gas pipeline component to Germany, which was previously repaired. This is an important step. At present, experts from Siemens are stepping up to solve all procedures and logistics problems, and hoping to send the parts to the repair parts to return to Europe as soon as possible.

However, the 10 -day "Beixi 1" annual maintenance brings more uncertainty. The German governments, markets, and enterprises are worried that due to the continuity of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the shutdown time of the pipeline may be extended.

Lee Hardman, an analyst at Mitsubishi Daily Financial Group, said in a comment email sent to the reporter of the Daily Economic News that the increasingly worse supply form has encouraged countries to implement energy distribution. "According to reports, Germany is limited to supply hot water, dark street lights, and turn off the swimming pool."

"Beixi No. 1" starts maintenance, Europe is concerned about Russia for a long time to suspend supply

Reuters reports that Europe is worried that Russia may extend the original expected maintenance time of "Beixi 1" (July 11th to July 21st) to further restrict European natural gas supply, so as to make the plan to store natural gas in winter Falling into chaos and exacerbating the natural gas crisis, this has prompted European governments to take emergency measures.

German Economic Minister of Economic Minister Robert Habeck said that Germany should face the possibility of Russia's possibility of transporting natural gas through the "Beixi No. 1" after the predetermined maintenance period.

Habeck said, "Everything is possible, and everything may happen. After the maintenance is over, Russia may continue to push to Germany through the pipeline, or the gas transmission is more than before, and it may not happen. To be honest We need to prepare for the worst situation and try our best to deal with possible problems. We need 'Beixi No. 1' to fill our natural gas inventory. Safety is equally important. "

Subsequently, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refuted the statement about Russia's use of oil and natural gas for political pressure. The plan is not a repair caused by human reasons.

According to the "Guardian", it is currently an important period for Germany to storage in winter. The German government plans to raise natural gas inventory to 90%of its gas storage capacity by November this year, but currently only about 63%. German Prime Minister Tsold said on July 9 that the German government has taken many measures in a short time to prepare for energy shortage. But in the long run, Germany's goal is to achieve independence in the import of oil, coal and natural gas, and expand the share of renewable energy.

Zongqiang Luo, a natural gas analyst at the consulting company Rystad Energy, said that Russia "is not impossible" to extend the maintenance period on the grounds of any delay. However, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" noticed that in the past few years, the regular maintenance cycle of "Beixi 1" was about 10-12 days each year, and the maintenance work was completed on time. Nevertheless, from a professional perspective, in the daily maintenance process of pipelines or natural gas infrastructure, additional faults are often found. If necessary, operators can extend the time to stop.

Goldman Sachs analyst said that although natural gas is completely suspended, it is considered unlikely, but Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. has not re -arranged traffic through other pipelines, which means that it is possible to reduce traffic for a long time.

If Russia stops natural gas, German GDP may lose 195 billion US dollars

According to Reuters, Germany has entered the second level of the German natural gas three -level emergency plan. This is a step before the government's fuel consumption distribution. Germany also warned that if the "Beixi No. 1" was suspended, the country would have a economic recession. According to data from the VBW Industry Association of Bavaria, Germany last month, (once Russia's natural gas is suspended), Germany's GDP loss may be as high as 193 billion euros (about 195 billion US dollars) in the second half of this year.

VWB's general manager Bertram Brossardt said, "The suspension of Russia's natural gas will also have a significant impact on Germany's labor force, and about 5.6 million jobs will be affected by this."

"Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that once Russia's natural gas stopped supply, its impact will also be more extensive -in the past few months, the price of natural gas that has continued to rise in the past few months has caused a huge impact on German industry and families. Lee Hudman pointed out that one week before the Pipeline of Beixi 1 was suspended, European natural gas prices (TFF) continued to rise, and the current price was about 135%higher than the low point of the previous month.

Picture source: Bloomberg

Rob Jetten, Minister of Energy of the Netherlands, commented on this, "If the" Beixi No. 1 'suspended or Germany lost all Russia (natural gas) imports, the entire Northwestern European region will be affected. " Jendon said in an interview with Reuters that when Russia's natural gas was completely suspended, the Grandengen gas field in the Netherlands could still help neighboring countries, but the increase in output would cause the risk of earthquakes.

Seeing that the energy crisis is constantly increasing, the risk of comprehensive interruption of Russian natural gas supply will lead to serious consequences. In Germany, since its initial accusations of Russia, they have to seek substantial solutions and even propose to restart the "Beixi 2" channels.

Germany may import natural gas from the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands through pipelines. The natural gas network in Europe is connected together, so it can be shared. However, the global natural gas market has begun to be nervous before the Ukraine crisis.

In addition, Germany is still seeking methods to expand the import and storage of LNG (LNG). Germany hopes to expand its import capabilities by building a new liquefied natural gas receiving end and plans to build two receiving terminals within two years.

Recently, Europe's concerns about the disconnection of natural gas have also become one of the main reasons for the continued weakening of the euro. Li Hudman told the reporter of the Daily Economic News in the email, "(Recently) the main reason for the weakening of the euro is that people's concerns about the tightening of energy supply to the European economy have continued to intensify."

From the beginning of the year to the present, the euro trend against the US dollar (picture source: Bloomberg Society)

Daily Economic News

- END -