Daoda Investment Notes: We ushered in a good and wide shock after the plate, and the fluctuation is coming soon

The market decline this Monday, which should be expected to many friends. The market has risen more and needs to be relieved.

In the current context, Xu Xiang's wife Ying Ying's review article was pushed to the cusp. Ying Ying's article mainly said two points. One is because of pork prices and other factors. The CPI may approach 3%year -on -year. If it exceeds 3%, it will restrict the monetary policy. The price has been overvalued.

Speaking of CPI data, Da Ge remembered that the consumer stocks had gone very much last year. At that time, the institutions used CPI data to interpret the reasons for the downturn of consumption. Essence Now, the situation is in turn, pork prices have recovered and CPI rises, but this CPI data is mainly caused by pork prices. When the market saw CPI data rise, it began to speculate on monetary policy. Moreover, even if the monetary policy is really weakened, will the macro -control have only monetary policy left? Obviously not. The infrastructure at the beginning of the year has followed the logic of fiscal policy to support the recovery of the economic recovery.

As for Tianqi Lithium Industry, I don't know that the valuation has not reached the top, but from the data disclosed by the China Automobile Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance on Monday, the growth is still rapid and the prosperity is still there. Xu Xiang's wife Ying Ying's words are not the essence of decline, and she is not so powerful, and in essence, new energy has risen.

Virtual power plant becomes new fermented theme

The most powerful rebound in this round is the track stocks. The waves of Tianqi Lithium have doubled more than doubled. Now that the PPI is down, most of the funds in the resource sector are more cautious. When new energy is hot, transaction funds can account for one -third of the market, which must have problems. As for whether this wave is top, it is still difficult to assert, but the short -term needs to be rushed.

On the disk, good performance is mainly defensive theme, and almost all of them are the direction mentioned by Dago. A new fermented theme last weekend is a virtual power plant. 16 departments such as the General Administration of Market Supervision issued a notice on the implementation of the "National Standardization Development Outline" action plan for the implementation of the "National Standardization Development Outline", and put forward the strengthening of the construction of new power system standards. A virtual power plant or an important part of it.

Wind power photovoltaic is uncertain, and the volatility of the power grid is strengthened. Therefore, it is necessary to rely on digital means. Real -time dynamic balance of the power grid is a necessary condition for the safe operation of the power grid. Virtual power plants are one of the important forms of flexibility.

To put it plainly, it is to master algorithm tools and models, rely on data accumulation, provide transaction feedback, iterative optimization, and then control the accuracy to slowly approach the physical power plant. It can coordinate the contradiction between smart grids and distributed energy, and improve the efficiency of resource utilization. At present, all parts of Shenzhen are pushing the virtual power plant project. The institution predicts that the potential market size of the industry may reach 100 billion yuan.

Pharmaceutical commerce is at the forefront of the gain list. Affected by the epidemic news, the hype of the new coronal virus infection of EVUSHELD's domestic agency right is expected to start fermenting. Before the agency news is implemented, the short -term hype may continue. The policy of traditional Chinese medicine in the next three to five years should be continuous favorable.

Circuit stocks have been regulated in an all -round way, and the pharmaceuticals such as the increase in funds with a small return increase are the idea of ​​"high cutting and low". At present, the intensity of large consumption is not enough, and it is only out of defense configuration, looking for low -absorbing opportunities in the callback.

How will the market react to favorable

Based on the market situation on Monday, Da Ge felt that there were the following points:

First of all, from the index level, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index was empty and lowered on Monday, falling below the low point of last week, announcing the market entering the adjustment period. The gap that jumping and low means that 3424 points have become the probability of recent market highs.

Since the rebound of this round, the rise has continued for 46 trading days. The callback is just a few trading days. In terms of time and space, the current adjustment is insufficient. Combined with the current fundamentals, capital, and policy, we must prepare psychological preparations for the upcoming wide -split shock period.

Whether the short -term Shanghai syndrome index is replenished in the gap, the key depends on whether the volume can be coordinated. Combined with the previous operation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the first support was near 3260 points, and the second support was near 3200 points. Focus on the establishment of a low -funded low -absorbing platform after the callback, which will provide us with the opportunity for the mid -line low -absorbing layout.

Second, pay attention to the market's reaction on Tuesday. After the market on Monday, the central bank announced the financial data in June. Both M2 and social finance data exceeded market expectations. It was a favorable and can dispel market's guess on monetary policy.

What a reaction to the market to favorable is the test of the market for observing the market. Of course, the possibility that the market will continue to rise rapidly and quickly, but at least the probability of maintaining a high horizontal vibration trend will be increased by at least.

Finally, at the background of the return operation level, in the context of the decrease in market risk preferences on Monday, we must pay attention to controlling positions. In short -term participation, it is necessary to get fast forward and fast, and the midline can wait for better "hitting points".

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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