Don't rush to cheer!Oil prices are expected to usher in two consecutive declines tomorrow, and gasoline No. 92 may return to the "8 yuan era"!

Fengkou Finance reporter Dong Wanwan

Continue to drop! The next round of domestic oil prices will be opened at 24:00 on July 12th. Oil prices are expected to usher in the second consecutive decline. This is also the third time this year.

As of the early morning of Monday, crude oil rebounded nearly 2.01%, Brent crude oil closed at $ 107.02/barrel. The current crude oil change rate was -5.46%. The cumulative decrease of domestic oil retail prices was 300 yuan/ton. It is predicted that the next round of price adjustment window is to reduce the price. Friends who need to refuel can wait.

Many parties in the industry also believe that if the price of crude oil continues to fluctuate and falls, it is expected that the next round of adjustments will be adjusted, and domestic refined oil prices may be reduced three consecutive times.

It is worth noting that when high oil prices soaring this year make fuel car owners "discouraged", the new energy auto market ushered in a wave of high sales.

Domestic oil prices may welcome the first "two consecutive declines"

At 24 o'clock on the evening of July 12, a new round of refined oil price adjustment windows will be ushered in. Oil prices are expected to be downgraded in the third round of the year in the new round of adjustment windows, which will also be the first two consecutive declines in the year.

At present, No. 92 gasoline in many places in China is still in the "9 yuan era", and after this adjustment, most regions will return to the beginning of 8. Taking the Qingdao area as an example, before the adjustment of this round, the retail price of 92 gasoline market was 9.05 yuan/liter, and the retail price of 95 gasoline market was 9.71 yuan/liter.

During this round of this cycle, although the fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand have not changed significantly, the inventory remains low, and the risk of supply interruption has always existed. However, from a macro perspective, the closely tracking economic data of the market shows signs of recession, the market is worried about its strong emotions, and the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expectation has strongly driven the US dollar to strengthen, which has led to a significant decline in international crude oil prices.

Source: Visual China

According to reports, as of the eighth working day of this cycle, the domestic crude oil change rate was -4.75%, and the predictions fell 260 yuan/ton, which was converted to 0.2 yuan/liter-0.22 yuan/liter. ) The oil is 10 ~ 11 yuan. Of course, this is not the final adjustment range. The specific oil price adjustment must be combined with the change rate of crude oil on the last two working days.

Industry analysts pointed out that the oil market has shocked recently. The international oil price declines in the first two trading days have fallen by more than 10%. New changes have occurred in the past two days. The opening window brings uncertainty.

However, although the current international oil prices have risen, the overall crude oil changes are still negative. Therefore, at 24:00 on July 12, domestic refined oil prices may still be reduced.

It is reported that after this adjustment, the next adjustment date for domestic oil prices will be July 26.

Public information shows that before the majority of international crude oil falling on July 5, Citi Group predicts that if the demand has arrived seriously, by the end of this year (2022), it may fall to $ 65 per barrel at the end of this year, and by the end of 2023 to $ 45.

This year's oil price adjustment 12 times

According to statistics from reporters, this year's oil prices have been adjusted 12 times this year (oil prices have risen 10 times, oil prices have fallen twice), gasoline has raised a total of 2400 yuan/ton, and diesel has raised a total of 1310 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to rising 1.91 yuan/liter to 2.20 yuan to 2.20 yuan /Lift.

Compared with the beginning of the year, the 50 -liter fuel tank with a box of 50 liters is nearly 100 yuan. In the first half of last year, domestic oil prices were still in the "6 yuan era".

After multiple rounds of raising, why does the price of domestic refined oil products usher in the first two consecutive declines? As we all know, the prices of domestic oil -based oil -based products are mainly crude oil futures. During this round of reporting, the US economic situation is not optimistic. The confidence of the commodity market is significantly frustrated, and international crude oil fluctuates.

On July 5th, international crude oil plummeted late at night, and WTI crude oil futures plummeted nearly 10%, falling below $ 100/barrel; the cloth oil disk fell over 10%. On July 7, international oil prices rebounded again. According to Wenhua Finance data, as of July 8, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil futures has fallen by about 17%since early June.

In addition, on June 29, the Ministry of Finance and the Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on the Implementation of the Related Price Subsidies after the International Oil Prices Touch the Ratial Limit" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") clearly, when the international oil price is higher than 130 When the US dollar per barrel, the price of domestic oil products will no longer be raised at the stage, and it will also implement phased price subsidies for refining companies. The policy duration is temporarily grasped for two months.

Oil prices "soaring" stimulate new energy vehicle sales

The prices of soaring gasoline seemed to have continued to force many car consumers to turn their attention to new energy vehicles.

According to data on July 8th of the Passenger Federation, in June of this year, the national passenger car market retail sales reached 1.943 million units, an increase of 22.6%year -on -year, and 43.5%month -on -month. Retail growth was the highest value in the same period of nearly six years. New energy vehicles still maintain a rapid growth trend, and the growth of passenger vehicle exports has become an important increase in driving passenger car retail.

On July 11, the latest production and sales data released by the China Automobile Industry Association showed that in the first half of the year, the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 10.434 million and 10.355 million, respectively, an increase of 6.0%and 3.4%year -on -year; the production and sales of commercial vehicles were completed by 168.3 respectively 168.3, respectively. 10,000 and 1.702 million units decreased by 38.5%and 41.2%year -on -year; the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 2.661 million and 2.6 million, respectively, a average year -on -year increase of 1.2 times, and the market share reached 21.6%. In addition, the China Automobile Industry Association also said that comprehensive judgment of the automotive market throughout the year is expected to reach 27 million vehicles in 2022, an increase of about 3%year -on -year. Among them, the sales volume of passenger vehicles is expected to be 23 million units, a year -on -year increase of about 7%; commercial vehicles are expected to be 4 million units, a year -on -year decrease of about 16%. New energy vehicles are expected to reach 5.5 million units throughout the year, an increase of more than 56%year -on -year.

The rise in oil prices is undoubtedly good for new energy vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted many times, and they have risen more. Domestic auto and diesel have increased by 2,330 yuan and 2245 yuan per ton, respectively.

Some owners have calculated a account. A private car with a 50 -liter fuel tank is currently full of 93 yuan more than the beginning of the year. If it is based on running 15,000 kilometers a year, the fuel consumption is 10 liters per 100 kilometers. This year's continuous price increase will allow the owner to spend 4,500 yuan a year. The continuous rise in oil prices has caused car owners to feel that "unbearable", and No. 95 gasoline in some areas once entered the "10 yuan" era.

"New energy vehicles ushered in development opportunities, and the public's choice of green travel will also be even more common." Mai Haochao, Dean of the Yibang Power Research Institute, said that oil price fluctuations bring the development window period to the new energy vehicle industry chain. All aspects of manufacturing, energy storage, and recycling treatment have ushered in new opportunities.

"Take the new energy vehicle market Dongfeng, and a large number of car companies will release new energy and new cars in the second half of the year, which is expected to promote the new energy market to continue to attract consumers." Some industry experts said that maintaining the expectations of new energy vehicles this year, it is expected to be new in 2022 new energy vehicles. The sales scale of energy passenger cars has the opportunity to exceed 5.5 million units, and continue to achieve about 70%of high growth.

Since 2022, international oil prices have fluctuated, and domestic refined oil retail prices have been raised several times. The cost of fuel vehicles has risen significantly, and it has increased the opportunity to increase the development of new energy vehicles. The increase in the amount of new energy vehicles has gradually become obvious on the substitution of domestic gasoline demand.

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