European Energy Change ｜ The price of heat waves and gas prices are soaring. Germany intends to cancel 2035 energy carbon neutrality and target

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter Wu Bin reported that in the summer, a huge heat wave swept the northern hemisphere, adding another fire to the more and more intense European energy crisis.

The continuous high temperature weather has increased the electricity consumption of electricity such as air -conditioning, and the demand for electricity in many places in Europe has reached a record high. The spot price of the European Power Exchange once exceeded 400 euros/MWh time, approaching the historical high. At the same time, natural gas is an important power generation energy source in Europe. Recently, the supply tension pattern is making European natural gas prices at a relatively high level of about 160 euros/sum times. The high price of natural gas has also exacerbated the pressure of European electricity prices.

Extremely high -temperature weather outside Europe has actually appeared frequently. In the United States, due to the continuous attack of the heat waves, on July 11, local time, the demand for electric power in Dezhou is expected to hit a record high. The state's major power grid operators have required residents and enterprises to save electricity. The Texas Electric Power reliability committee (Ercot) said that the total power demand on the 11th is expected to exceed 79 Gava, which will create another record.

David Winter, a senior economist of Oxford Economic Research Institute, told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald that the earth is undoubtedly warming. In 2020, the global average temperature is 1.2 ° C higher than before industrialization. The temperature of the entire northern hemisphere is the most significant, and the temperature of some countries has risen by 2 ° C. On the whole, the probability of extreme high temperature weather is rising, which will also adversely affect normal economic activities.

Energy Transformation Pioneer Pioneer Germany "Discir"

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine was unbelievable, and the European energy crisis ushered in the summer heat waves. Faced with the intensified energy crisis, the German government has confirmed "driving a reverse". Germany intends to amend the draft environmental policies and laws and cancel the climate goals of "the energy industry achieved carbon neutrality by 2035." This modification has been passed in the lower house of Germany.

In addition, the German government has chosen to return to the "era of coal burning" earlier, and coal -fired and fuel generator sets can return to the German market. The passage of the latest legal draft means that coal power no longer conflicts with environmental protection goals.

Just in December last year, the new German government also promised to accelerate the elimination of coal power. At that time, the Social Democratic Party led by the German Prime Minister, the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Liberty Democratic Party, which mainly for environmental protection, formed a new government to plan the goal of eliminating coal power to 2030.

However, due to the lack of key components of the Beixi Pipeline 1 last month, Russia had a decrease of about 60%of European gas transmission, which caused tension from various countries. Germany announced that it entered a state of natural gas secondary alert. Restarting coal is helpless. Without energy, family and enterprises will be huge. Earlier, a German chemical giant related persons had warned that without sufficient natural gas, its largest Lutchiga Port Factory would be completely stopped.

When talking about the necessity of coal, Robert Habeck, Vice Premier, Economic and Climate Protection, said: "This is painful, but in this case, it is necessary to reduce natural gas consumption. Filling up before winter, this is the most important. "

It should be noted that on July 11, Russia's largest pipeline Beixi No. 1, the largest pipeline that transported natural gas to Europe for ten days of annual maintenance and temporary interruption of supply, but the European government, market, and enterprises were worried that this time the pipeline closed time would be closed. extend.

Beixi 1 pipeline transports 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Germany each year. Last month, Russia reduced pipeline traffic to 40%of the total pipelines for technical reasons, saying that Germany Siemens failed to return the air pump device to Canada to return to Russia in time.

At present, it is an important period for European countries such as Germany and other European countries. The German government plans to increase the natural gas inventory to 90%of the gas storage capacity by November, and now it is only 62%. Therefore in stock.

But the good news is that Western attitude has begun to soften. Canada has stated on the 10th that it will return the pipelines sent by Siemens.

"Dark moment" has not yet arrived

Although high temperature weather in summer has faced European tests, the worse moment is far from arrival.

EU countries will discuss the winter emergency plan at an emergency meeting on July 26 to ensure enough natural gas reserves to meet the peak needs of heating and electricity. The energy industry warns that if Russia cuts off supply, it may be more difficult in winter, because the choice of natural gas from other places around the world is limited.

Frans Timmermans, vice chairman of the European Commission, warned that in this winter, Europe will face very intense and destructive conflicts due to energy prices and should restore the use of fossil fuels in the short term to resist the risk of civil strife. "If society is in conflict because there is no energy, then the environmental protection goal is the empty pavilion. We need to ensure that people will not feel cold in the coming winter."

The current situation is not optimistic. According to data released by the German Federal Statistics Bureau this month, Germany's exports in May have shrunk by 0.5%to 125.8 billion euros. This is the first time in Germany's trade deficit since 1991, the main reason is that import costs have soared. Data show that the price of energy imports rose by 157.4%year -on -year, of which natural gas prices rose 301.2%over the same period last year.

Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald that the European energy system has natural vulnerability, extremely low self -sufficient rate, and high dependence on imports. Globally, the first energy consumption of Europe in 2020 is close to 90 Ai Jiao ear, accounting for 16%of the global proportion, second only to 26%of China. Despite the huge consumption, European natural gas, petroleum, coal and other traditional energy output are low, and the external dependence is extremely high. In Zhao Wei's view, due to the "radical" and green energy fluctuations of energy transformation, EU energy supply and demand has been relatively fragile in recent years. Geopamental conflict has exacerbated the rise in energy prices, which has intensified the vulnerability of the European energy system.

For the severity of the next situation, Habeck even warned that Russia's reduction of European natural gas supply may trigger a greater risk of the energy market.

Habeck explained that the loss of energy suppliers is increasing due to the forced to replenish losses at high prices, and there may be a risk of overflowing the local public business industry and its users (including consumers and enterprises). "If the losses are so large that they can't bear it, the entire market will collapse at a certain moment. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system."

In addition to Germany, another large economy France is also preparing for the cold winter. French energy -intensive enterprises are accelerating the formulation of emergency plans and transforming some gas boilers into fuel boilers to prepare for power outages due to further reduction in Russia's natural gas supply. The act of turning to oil also shows that France hopes to prioritize the cost of soaring energy prices to the local economy, rather than the long -term goal of turning to zero -carbon fuel.

However, France has certain advantages over Germany. 70%of France's power depends on nuclear energy, which means that France's direct dependence on Russia is much lower than that of neighboring Germany.

But even worse, European energy issues may last far exceeding their imagination. German Chancellor Antrz, the impact of the energy crisis on the 9th, warned, saying that the problem of energy shortage may affect Germany for several years. Shuoerz said that even after the winter passed, measures to respond to energy shortage should continue to be retained: "We care about the safety of energy supply, this is not a problem for a few days, but the issue of weeks, months, and years in the next few weeks, months, and years."

Mueller, director of the Federal Network Bureau of German Energy Supervision Agency, also acknowledged that the crisis will continue for a long time. The price fluctuation of the natural gas market has not yet affected private consumers. Private consumption will be severely hit. "

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