June Fund Observation: New Energy VS Old Energy!The waves of the Yangtze River push forward, newcomers in the world change old people

Author: Xiaoxiao Sheng, understand the economic columnist

Market review in June 2022

In June 2022, most international stock markets fell sharply. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 6.71%, the Nasdaq Index fell 8.71%, the S & P 500 index fell 8.39%; while the Chinese stock market came out of a completely independent market and continued to be strong. Rising, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 6.66%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 11.87%, and the GEM index rose 16.86%, which was in sharp contrast to the peripheral stock market.

The stock market in June also stimulated the enthusiasm of investors to buy funds. The number of newly issued funds reached 139, and the monthly total fund issuance share reached 235.81 billion yuan, a monthly high of 2022. At the same time, the fund market has also ushered in a general rising pattern. As of June 30, 2022, a total of 9,670 public funds (categories A and C heavy) in the Chinese fund market were 5.59%. The yield accounted for 95%, an average increase of 5.97%, the effect of making money was obvious, and 2294 funds increased by more than 10%; 430 funds achieved negative returns, accounting for 4.5%, an average of 1.86%.

In June 2022, the fund gain rankings TOP50: new energy strong list!

Figure 1: June Fund Raise Ranking Top50

The 50 funds on the list performed very brightly in June, with a threshold increase of 21.92%, an average increase of 26.35%, and the average scale was 1.678 billion yuan. The average single fund was medium. Among them, Oriental Fund managed the Oriental New Energy Vehicle Hybrid Fund (400015), the largest of 18.5 billion, an increase of more than 23.01%, and the most obvious effect of making money.

The champion fund is the South China Fund Liu Fei and Zhu Fangcao managed by the South China Value Value Value Bond A (007189), which increased by 141.82%in June. The net worth rising by 143.21%within a day on June 16, one day, is a normal increase; niche investors holding this fund are refreshing, but such opportunities can be encountered without reference value.

The runner -up fund is the Huitianfu Yingxin hybrid A (002420) managed by Liu Sheng, a Huitianfu Fund, with a scale of 555 million yuan, an increase of 29.08%in June. Its position structure focuses on the "photovoltaic+energy storage" new energy industry chain, and has maintained a higher equity position. Jinlang Technology, Deye shares, Gudewei, Jianghai shares, sunlight power supply; the largest heavy warehouse shares Ningde Times, the third largest heavy warehouse shares, Homai shares, the seventh largest heavy warehouse stock, the eighth largest heavy warehouse stock solid Dewey's June increased by more than 30%.

Figure 2: Huitian Fuyingxin Hybrid A (002420) At the end of the first quarter, heavy stocks and June increase

The third runner -up fund is the battery ETF (561910) managed by the China Merchants Fund Xu Rongman, which rose 27.51%in June. It is a passive index fund that is mainly invested in the battery industry in the new energy industry to subdivide the battery industry. Five of the top ten heavy stocks of the top ten increased by more than 30%, namely Ningde Times, pilot intelligence, heavenly gift materials, and Pai Tai Come, Rongbai Technology.

Figure 3: Battery ETF (561910) at the end of the first quarter and the increase in June

In June 2022, the new energy sector was the most powerful sector in rebound. There was no one of the sub -industry in the industry energy storage, wind power, photovoltaic, battery, and new energy vehicles. Looking at the fund gain list in June, it can be found that nearly 40 funds are invested in new energy industries such as batteries and new energy vehicles; and in early July, the new energy sector still has a strong momentum, but the market has begun to have different differences There are situations where significant rise and depth of callbacks appear; often at this time, it is the time to test the principle and style of the investment of the person.

TOP50 of the Fund Falling Ranking in June 2022: Old Energy and Overseas Fund Fighter List

Figure 4: June Fund Fall Ranking Top50

The threshold of the 50 funds on the list dropped by 7.08%, with an average decline of 9.6%, and the average scale was only 807 million yuan. The scale of a single fund was small.

Huabao Oil and Gas LOF (162411) managed by Huabao Fund Management of Huabao Fund, the full name is the full name of Huabao S & P oil natural gas upstream stock index securities investment fund (LOF). Index) Linking, the fund does not directly invest in oil and gas, but is stocks of companies that are investing in oil naturally mining and produced in foreign countries. Due to the decline in the US stock market, the fund's net value has recently fallen significantly, and it fell by 20.46%in June. The fund is famous among arbitrage traders. During the sharp fluctuation of the oil prices and the stocks of the oil industry, using the arbitrage strategy of purchasing at the same time trading at the same time, it may earn a few points or even a dozen points within a day within a day. Low -risk returns, but at the same time, are also limited by the uncertainty of the outer disk, and the case of arbitrage rollover is often occurred; in addition, the QDII quota is limited. Many times the fund is closed for purchase. The army can often be consumed within a few days.

Figure 5: Huabao Oil and Gas LOF (162411) 2022 price trend

The felling list is the oil LOF (162719) managed by Guangfa Fund. The full name is the Guangfa Dow Jones Petroleum Index (QDII-LOF). Component stocks and alternative ingredient stocks with the production index. The fund, like Huabao oil and gas LOF, is a favorite fund of arbitrage traders. It is also a typical representative of old energy. They have obtained positive returns for 5 consecutive months in January to May. The yields in the first half of the year still exceed 30%. Figure 6: Petroleum LOF (162719) in 2022 price trend

The felling list is the Global Natural Resources Mixed (378546) managed by the Morgan Fund (378546), which tracks European currency and minerals, gold and energy indexes; the fund has been established for more than 10 years, and the cumulative yield has been-15.56%since its establishment (as of 7 of 2022, 7 On January 9), it is still a loss state, and the lack of arbitrage mechanism and non -active subscription of funds, so the scale has continued to shrink, the latest scale is only 113 million yuan.

Among the 50 funds on the list of the outer stock market, 47 of the 50 funds on the list are only 47 that are only invested in the QDII fund overseas, including Huabao Oil and Gas LOF (162419) investing in overseas oil, natural gas, and resource stocks, and Petroleum Fund LOF (160416) , Germany ETF (513030), French CAC40ETF (513080), CCB FTS 100 Index (539003), the US Consumer LOF (162415), the Growth Stocks of the United States (000043), Nas, Dak ETF (513300); Nikkei 225ETF (513880), which is invested in the Asia -Pacific market, Tianhong Vietnam Market A (008763), etc.; Risks and income homologous, if you want to earn overseas investment, you must bear the overseas investment stock market Double uncertainty of the exchange rate.

New and old energy war: the waves of the Yangtze River push forward, newcomers in the world change to old people

Judging from the fund market in June, the rise of new energy rides, the decline of the old energy is the best, and the new energy is better than the old energy. But did the new energy really pat the old energy on the beach? Let's first look at the investment logic of new and old energy.

(1) Investment logic of new energy

Ren Zeping's arms who have transformed "emotional bloggers" shouted: "No new energy is cast now, just like not buying a house 20 years ago." It is believed that new energy is the future trend and the power of the times. With small and new energy bases, the new scale of wind power and photovoltaic has begun to surpass thermal power since 2020; the proportion of new power generation installations in wind power and photovoltaic in the past two years has continued to increase. In February 2022, in February 2022 In the new month, the wind power and photovoltaic were close to 90%of the new power generation installation. The support of national policies is superimposed, and the development engine of new energy has been started. The next step is to wait for its throttle to start the rhythm of the "big step leap forward".

Wang Peng, the star fund manager of the Tedda Manolie Fund, said when talking about the continuity of the new energy vehicle market, "" The electricization and intelligence of cars are a major trend. I feel that the trend is still unclear; when the penetration rate is more than 20 % now, you feel a bit high again, start to worry about bottlenecks and worry about the growth rate. In fact, new energy vehicles have reached 11 % last year. In May this year, the penetration rate has already been 26 %, and it can increase by 91 % year -on -year. This industry is a very good industry in the world. Finally, a large, trending opportunity like new energy should be grasped well. "

(2) Investment logic of old energy

Although the new energy industry industrial chain such as "scenery storage"+"hydrogen energy" has infinite landscapes in the past two years, the public offer semi -annual championship in the first half of 2022 is the Yellow Sea that adheres to the old energy. Among them, Wanjia macro -selection multi -strategy mixed (519212) increased by 52.63%in the first half of the year, far ahead!

Figure 7: Ranking of equity funds in the first half of 2022

Huang Hai, as the deputy general manager and investment director of the Wanjia Fund, has worked for more than 20 years. It began to increase the coal in the third quarter of last year. In the first quarter of this year, the heavy warehouse coal industry was reached, and Shaanxi Coal Industry was transferred to the largest holding stock. And this round of warehouses happened to hit the Russian conflict. Multi -nations restricted the export of resource commodities, which further affected the supply, which led to the increase in the resource attributes of coal and oil, and the price increase will be increased. The rise in profit expectations has also led to the rise of the traditional energy sector market. Huang Hai can adhere to the old energy, mainly depends on the low valuation strategy of the three highs and one low. "High profitability, high cash flow, high dividend rate, and low capital expenditure. Zero -growth has a high configuration value. "

Another fund manager who dares to configure the old energy of the old energy is Qiu Dongrong. The value and quality of Zhong Geng's value and quality of the year holding period (011174) and the hybrid (006551) of Zhong Geng Value Pilot (006551) can be ranked in the first half of 2022. Within the top 15 of the list, it ranked first in the revenue ranking of fund managers at the level of tens of billions of management; Qiu Dongrong had shot Yankuang Energy and Orchid Creation in 2021 when regulating coal prices, and made a profit in the first quarter of this year. For a long time, the coal stocks were transferred out of the top ten heavy warehouse stocks and bought CNOOC, and they also added the Internet and real estate fields of Hong Kong stocks. Today, many celebrity funds betting on the track and investment growth stocks, it is not easy for Qiu Dongrong to have a clear investment style and achieve excellent results. It is his true portrayal of the human voice. Regarding why he does not buy new energy, he has a cognition that transcends ordinary people: the valuation of all links in the entire industry chain of the new energy sources is very high, and the average value of the average value is interpreted in his own words. And many times it is positively affected, but once a reversal occurs, it will appear back. If the industry owner is expanding, then it will eventually become a prisoner's predicament. In other words, high valuations will inevitably lead to expansion ... Then because the price of buying is very expensive, the expected ROE is very high, and a large number of high -level funds will be redeemed with a mediocre ROE. " It is sober on earth. The growth rates of these companies are very fast, but they are valuable. They are likely to be a great company. Their ROE in the future will be mediocre! In terms of Qiu Dongrong's logic, it is not that he deliberately heavy -duty old energy, but the company that is in line with his investment logic in the old energy company; the past is the old energy, and now it is the Nuggets in the real estate and Hong Kong stock Internet! Zhou Haidong, the investment director of the Chinese Business Fund, who uses the "cycle" as his own investment concept, is another fund manager of the old energy of heavy warehouses. He believes that "the quotation of cyclical stocks and value stocks may just start. The largest investment in the year may still be restored under the demand under supply constraints. Specifically, in the industry direction, the resource cycle and financial sector are the direction that can be followed in 2022, such as copper, gold, aluminum and other non -ferrous metals, oil and gas mining, oil transportation Waiting for crude oil, as well as coal, banking, real estate, construction, steel, etc. "

Poor market outlook

At this moment of the new and old energy war, it will inevitably win and defeat for a while; new energy has the investment logic of new energy, and the survival rules of old energy have old energy.新能源风光储+氢能，是能源革命的发展方向，也代表着中国能源弯道超车的希望，从总量来看，相较未来数十万亿的市场前景，现在才算刚刚开始，但The power of this new life will definitely experience the life cycle stage of industry life cycle such as disorderly expansion, industry integration, and stable development. At the stage, although the upward trend will decline, the foreseeable ten or twenty years will still be in the reward period of the dividend if the industry recovers or external factors is stimulated. I hope that the new energy will not have the scene of the furry and feathers of the fund before the fund, which may endanger the development of an industry and will deeply hurt the public investors.

After a decline in March-April, the rise in May-June is now a difference. Some people resign back to their hometown to show up and leave the field. Do you want to buy or sell questions? However, I have no ability to judge the future, and I have no intention of giving a clear answer. I continue to believe in the "power of configuration" and wait for the roses to quietly bloom. If Volkswagen investors have not mastered the skills of configuration funds, it is recommended to start with the research fund manager, take a look at his investment style and investment concept, and see his heavy position holding allocation, firm recognition will be firm, and you will not recognize it. Do not recognize it. Or the ambiguousness is firm, at least it will be much better than buying hot funds to follow the wind.

Note: The data of this article comes from Oriental Fortune Choice Financial Terminal; the list of funds is only a market review, which is not enough as a basis for buying and selling.

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