Under high temperature power supply "big test": electric coal continues to maintain stable prices, and increase the energy consumption industry electricity price in many places

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Paying Wing Flying Intern Zhan Chunyang Beijing Report

As soon as Xiao Xia has passed, the "baked roasting" model has been opened in many places across the country. According to the information published by the Central Meteorological Observatory, from July 6th to 11th, a total of 18 provinces (autonomous regions and cities) across the country had high temperatures above 35 ° C, and high -temperature "standby" at 40 ° C high temperature appeared in multiple cities. At the same time, due to the general improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the pace of economic recovery has accelerated the overflowing range of high temperature weather, which has continuously increased the load of electricity in many places.

According to the statistics of the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation (hereinafter referred to as the "China Electric Federation"), since June, the national power consumption growth rate has increased from a negative to positive year -on -year growth. The overall balance of power supply and demand in the country, some provinces in East China, Central and Southern areas are tight during the peak power period of electricity consumption.

Faced with the advent of the peak of power coal, the power system has once again ushered in the test, and the energy supply and stable price work is being deployed from the central to the local area. Not only the average daily output of raw coal nationwide is reached, but the power generation of many large power plants has also increased significantly. Key projects such as supporting power supply and transmission lines in various places are also accelerating the production. Essence

When the supply and stability of the electric coal insurance are underway

The State Grid disclosed on June 20 that since June, the company's maximum power load has more than 844 million kilowatts, Henan, Hebei, Gansu, Ningxia, Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places, as well as Northwest Power Grid electric load reached a record high history high history. Essence

"The current growth is still in the normal range." Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the current living standards of residents have increased year by year, and the electricity consumption has risen. The return of the manufacturing industry is bound to bring new electricity demand.

So, this year, maybe because of high temperature "burning", will the power supply be tense?

Lin Boqiang pointed out that the phenomenon of innovative high loads in summer every summer. As long as the expected scope is within the expected range, a reasonable peak adjustment scheduling will not cause the problem of tight power supply.

However, it is necessary to do a good job of "supply stability" of electric coal. According to Zhang Hong, a spokesman for the China Coal Industry Association, the first five months of this year, the national coal production was 1.81 billion tons, an increase of 10.4%year -on -year. Increase.

In terms of transportation, the China Railway has launched special operations for electric coal insurance on July 1. It is expected that the daily average daily electric coal loading during the summer transportation will increase by about 10,000 vehicles year -on -year.

According to statistics from China Electricity Union, the current coal inventory of the power plant has basically reached the peak of the peak summer. As of June 30, the coal inventory of the coal power plant incorporated into the power industry's fuel statistics of the power industry was 96.01 million tons, an increase of 42.6%year -on -year. The number of days is 22.4 days, and it is still expanding.

"From the perspective of resources, there are still certain potential to increase production in the main producing areas of Jin, Shaanxi and Mongolia." Zhang Hong said that with the arrival of the peak coal peak period of the peak summer, the demand for coal has gradually rebounded. However, this year, the national hydropower and new energy power generation continues to maintain a rapid growth trend, and the role of coal replacement is also increasing. Therefore, the national coal market this summer will continue to maintain a basic balance.

Wang Yongli, associate professor of the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University, director of the Institute of Electricity and Technology Analysis, introduced to the 21st Century Business Herald that in September last year, the fundamental reason for large -scale gates of large -scale gates in many provinces last year is that the source, network side, and user -side side It is not effectively coordinated, reflecting that the sorting out of various aspects of the "source of the source network" is not clear, and it has an impact on the power generation of thermal power and renewable energy.

In addition to emphasizing power supply supply this year, many provinces and cities' peak -summer work will also deploy power grid engineering, orderly power consumption and other mesh -side measures, and user -side measures for energy supply adjustment. It is understood that Southern Power Grid Corporation will comprehensively speed up 244 energy insurance for key engineering projects in the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area, and put into production of 125 items this year. This year, the 16 Jiangsu Power Grid has all been completed and put into operation, including 7 500 kV power grid projects and 9 220 kV power grid projects. The cumulative new variable power capacity exceeds 9 million kVA.

"When you clearly grasp the ability to regulate all links, you can choose low -cost links to adjust, so as to actively and orderly respond to emergencies and reduce the adverse effect on economic production and life. From the perspective of power generation side, load management, etc., this year in all aspects of policies, enterprises, etc., "Wang Yongli said.

"In the case of sufficient protection of fuel this year and good water coming situation, my country's power supply capacity can generally meet the demand for power consumption." "It also pointed out that in the case of further weakening the impact of the epidemic on the economy and society, combined with the comprehensive factors such as the effects of various national stable growth policies and measures, it is expected that the power consumption of the whole society will increase by about 7.0%year -on -year in the second half of the year. The growth rate increased by about 4 percentage points.

At present, the supply and demand of electric coal in my country is generally balanced, but the continued losses of coal power companies still have an impact on power supply and system safety and stable operation. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the industrial profits of the power, thermal production and supply industries from January to May fell by 26.9%year-on-year, of which the profit of coal power enterprises was squeezed for a long time. According to Ye Chun, deputy director of the Planning and Development Department of the China Electricity Union, since August 2021, the overall losses of the coal and electricity sector of large power generation groups, and some groups' coal -electric sector losses have reached 100%. Although the National Development and Reform Commission in October last year, the "Notice on Further Deepening the Reform of the Market -oriented Reform of Coal -Power Power Network Electricity Prices" has been released, the market transaction price of coal -fired power generation units has risen, but it is far below the rise in coal prices. Stress continues to accumulate.

Ye Chun believes that the continuous losses of coal power companies need to continue to increase the policy support for coal power enterprises, including continuously increasing the support of state -owned capital, providing special funding subsidies for coal -fired units that provide credit approval and launch policies, and provide special funds for coal -fired units that are difficult to operate. As well as special income money for coal.

Improve the stability of new energy power supply

It is worth noting that in response to the increase in power load, Yunnan, Ningxia, Zhejiang, Hunan and other provinces have specially introduced electricity price adjustment plans for high energy -consuming enterprises.

For example, Zhejiang Province drafted the "Notice on Adjusting the Electricity Prices of High Energy Enterprises" in mid -May. For the five categories of 17 small categories, a total of 634 high -energy energy -consuming enterprises are planned to be the electricity price from July 1st to December 31st. Increased 0.172 yuan per kilowatt -hour. The "Hunan Province High -Energy Enterprise Welcome to the Summer Market Trading Plan" released by Hunan Province is clearly explicit to perform punitive electricity prices for high -energy -consuming enterprises' hyper -contract consumption. Service price+10 yuan/kWh execute.

"At present, 70%of China's power demand side is industrial electricity, of which 40%and 50%are high -energy consumption industries. Under the premise of emphasizing the stability of the economy, the full adjustment is unrealistic. Take measures to take measures, which is conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure, but also play a more obvious role in solving the contradiction between power supply and demand. "Lin Boqiang said.

It is worth noting that new energy power generation has gradually become an important part of my country's power supply. my country's new wind power and photovoltaic power generation have officially entered the parity Internet stage last year, and the technical costs of landscape storage have fallen sharply.

Previously, the market generally analyzed that under the influence of the "double carbon" strategy and the requirements of macroeconomic development, the new energy power generation continued to grow rapidly in 2022, and the replacement of coal power will also increase significantly.

According to CSIC data, as of May, the installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation in the country was 670 million kilowatts; from January to May, new energy power generation accounted for 40.6%of the total total-caliber power generation.

Zhang Lin, deputy director of the Planning and Development Department of the China Electricity Federation, interviewed that at the end of 2022, the national power generation capacity reached about 2.6 billion kilowatts. Among them, the total installed capacity of non -fossil energy power generation reached about 1.3 billion kilowatts, accounting for the first time to increase to about 50%.

However, the volatility of renewable energy power generation is strong. As the proportion of renewable energy power generation increases, it is also testing the security operation of the power grid. For example, State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co., Ltd. mentioned in the abroad that from September 23 to 25 last year, due to the sudden decrease in wind power, the power supply gap was further increased to a serious level. 10%to 20%) In an orderly manner, in the case of the maximum error avoidance peaks of an orderly electricity measurement measures during the period, there is still a power supply gap in the power grid. Therefore, Liaoning had to adopt the ultimate means of "pulling the gate".

Zhang Lin said that new energy -based new power systems have problems such as safety, efficiency, and management, and the randomness, intermittentity and elimination problems of Fengguang power generation are prominent. In May, the amount of wind power generation increased from increasing to decrease, decreased by 0.7%, and solar power generation growth slowed, an increase of 8.3%.

The national new energy consumption monitoring and early warning center analyzes that in the second quarter, with Gansu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi and other places, centralized wind power light installation machines have increased significantly. Essence

In order to ensure the "fourteenth five" goal of "flexible adjustment power in 2025", Zhang Lin said to avoid abandoning the wind and lighting and ensuring power consumption. The construction and reconstruction of the energy storage power station, the power grid side strengthened the connection and collaboration of the provinces, and the load side efforts to improve the flexibility of high -load load in large industries.

Wang Yongli also proposed that the problem of the disappearance of wind power and photoelectric energy needs to be solved through management methods, to open up the bottleneck link of the "source of the source network", market -oriented means, and even the overall improvement.

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