Can sales of sales recovery, can real estate stocks rise?Fund manager's latest judgment

China Fund reporter Zhang Ling

Since the beginning of this year, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the national real estate market has also experienced unprecedented challenges. However, with the densely introduced by the bailout policy and gradually results, from the perspective of the first half of the first half of the real estate enterprise, In the first half of the year, sales showed a downward trend, but after entering June, the sales side had shown signs of improvement.

Many people in the industry believe that the improvement of real estate sales data is critical, determining whether the subsequent trend of the real estate sector is sustainable. As the economy continues, the real estate sector may usher in the opportunity to improve the overall valuation in the future. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the potential risk of potential thunderstorms at the current unsuccessful real estate companies, as well as the phased disturbance of sales in sales due to repeated accidents.

Real Estate Sales Heating in June

Data from Cinda Securities Report shows that the cumulative sales amount of the top 100 housing companies in January to June 2022 was 3477.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.6%year-on-year, a narrowing of 2.1PCT from the previous month, and continued to fall. The monthly sales amount of the top 100 housing companies was 837.590 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 42.5%, a narrowing of 17.3pct, an increase of 61.3%month -on -month.

Although there are signs of heating on the sales side, from the perspective of the market, the real estate sector has recovered in the past 3 months. As of the closing of July 8, the CSI Real Estate Index closed up 0.2%in one day. The decline reached 19.32%, a decline of 7.18%during the year.

In terms of active equity fund products, as of July 8th, there were 8 fund products including real estate or real estate (calculated calculation). Essence The average income of the eight products was -5.73%, and the latest scale reached 9.05 billion yuan, which was slightly increased by 0.94%compared to 8.921 billion yuan at the end of last year.

However, it is worth noting that in some superior fund products this year, in addition to heavy warehouse coal energy, it is also equipped with real estate stocks. For example, as of the first quarter of this year, there were 3 real estate stocks in the top ten heavy positions of Wanjia's macro -selection strategy, and 4 real estate stocks in the top ten heavy warehouses in Wanjia Xinli. As of July 8, the two funds of the two funds mentioned above this year were 47.18%and 41.15%, respectively, ranking among the top two of the performance list of active equity funds.

Yang Jinghan, manager of Huatai Berry New Financial Real Estate Fund, believes that the main reasons for the warning terminal in June include: a series of real estate policies have been relaxed since the beginning of this year, the real estate sales of the main cities' epidemics have a reasonable rebound, and real estate sales year -on -year year -on -year The base number is gradually decreasing, real estate enterprises are close to the end, a series of boosted economic measures began to take effect, economic growth has begun to be repaired, and the confidence of residential house purchase is gradually recovered.

"For the real estate sector as a whole, it is good, but at this stage, the main benefit of central enterprises and state -owned enterprises and high credit rating, high financial and conservative high -credit real estate enterprises, the real estate sector may have differentiation." Yang Jinghan said that the improvement of real estate sales data has whether there is any improvement in the real estate sales data. The continuity is critical, determining whether the subsequent trend of the real estate sector is sustainable.

Or ushered in "Davis Double -click"

Looking forward to the market outlook, Yang Jinghan, Huatai Berry Fund, bluntly stated that it is more optimistic about the real estate sector, especially in the third quarter, there may be opportunities for overall valuation improvement. Among them, you can pay attention to high -credit, land acquisition, and sales of high -credit, land acquisition, and high sales of central enterprises. The rest of the real estate companies can pay attention to the sales of real estate companies that improve their elasticity and operate steadily. As for risks, we must pay attention to avoid some potential risks of unsuccessful real estate companies, and also pay attention to the motion of sales in the staged decline in sales due to accidents such as accidents. "I mainly consider controlling the proportion of overall real estate allocation and selected high -quality real estate investment to strive to avoid a large retracement of net worth and strive to improve the stability of product returns."

Huang Hai, deputy general manager of Wanjia Fund, investment director, and Wanjia macro -selection multi -strategy fund manager, said that in addition to the high allocation value of the backstream industry, especially the upstream resources, the financial real estate is also worthy of attention.

"In the past two or three years, financial and real estate has increased less. In the past period of time, the flow of funds into the growth stock section has produced a rainbow effect on financial real estate. Against the background of clearing the industry, the industry pattern is more optimized and competitive. At the stage of ushered in an inflection point of economic upward, they are expected to usher in profitability. At the same time, due to the re -balance of market growth value, funds from growth to value, and valuations will usher in improvement. "Therefore, at the end of this year or next year, this company has the possibility of welcoming Davis."

Zhang Gang, a Southwest Securities Investment Consultant, believes that in 2022, it belongs to the peak of foreign debt repayment of Chinese housing companies. For real estate companies with high extra debt, the risks are particularly stored. In contrast Relatively safe. In addition, in terms of business income composition, some of the construction revenue, part of the construction enterprises with real estate income are expected to maintain excellent performance.

Regarding the investment suggestions of ordinary investors, Zhang Gang said that the factors that affect the real estate market are intricate. In addition to domestic monetary policy, investors also need to consider the domestic population birth rate, marriage rate, unemployment rate;The monetary policy orientation of the body and so on."If you lack sufficient professional knowledge yourself, if you want to invest in a certain industry, including real estate, you may wish to choose an industry -type securities investment fund by commissioning investment." "Ordinary investors may wish to choose the fund for investment and financial management.Knowledge should try not to determine direct transaction stocks by themselves. "Huatai Berry Fund Yang Jinghan said that for fund products in the real estate industry, he suggested choosing a real estate fund that actively configured.Pure passive funds are better.

Edit: Captain

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