From a box to a discount to selling the "Super Peasant Season" market?

"Recently, popular routes are the decline in futures prices. The reason, on the one hand, the number of domestic export orders has decreased year -on -year; on the other hand, the supply chain of the marketing market has gradually recovered. To end, the crazy scene of "grabbing the cabin and grabbing the box 'before is gone." A freight forwarder told the Securities Daily reporter.

After two years of "overtaking season", the gathering industry seems to have ushered in a "inflection point". According to data from Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on July 8th, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 3232.18 points, a decrease of 1.2%from the previous period (July 1), and the price of popular routes on various roads fell. Among them, European routes fell 2%compared to the previous period, and the European line freight rates fell 14%since February; US Western routes decreased by 2.5%compared to the previous period, and Eastern routes decreased by 1.7%compared to the previous period.

Does this mean that the "inflection point" of the gathering industry is here? In response, the executive director of the China China China District told the power of the Securities Daily: "CCFI still performs stable in general, and as the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is better, the demand for related commodities will be restored, and the supply of US port supply and the supply of US ports and The uncertainty of commodity demand is expected to remain high in the short term. "

The current freight rate fell below the long -term cooperative price

Shipping Giant withdraws the ship's preservation price

Recently, some of the goods in the circle of friends have released advertisements for "discount selling boxes", which attracts onlookers, and the grand occasion of the "one box of hard boxes" in the marketing market seems to be yesterday.

A Yiwu Foreign Trade Enterprise CEO told a reporter from the Securities Daily: "At present, it is easier to find the cabin and the box. At the same time, the price of maritime transportation has also decreased a lot than last year, but the foreign trade factory is facing a disadvantage of decreased orders in European and American orders."

International Shipping Research and Consultation Institutions Drewry's latest period of World Container Comprehensive Freight Index (WCI) shows that the current shipping costs from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 4%, that is, $ 300 to $ 7652/Feu, a 16%decrease from the same period in 2021 ; From Shanghai to New York, the current shipping costs fell 2%to $ 10154/Feu, a decrease of 13%from the same period in 2021.

Throughout the first half of 2022, the market prices from Shanghai to the United States showed a cloud of overcast prices, and even the current market price fell below the long -term cooperative price. According to market rumors, the owners have proposed the price of the long -term association with the freight forwarding.

The cargo generation told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many long -term associations are signed at the end of last year and early this year. At that time, the market was hot and the freight rate was high. At present, it is about to fall below $ 7,000/Feu, and the European route is also expected to fall below 10,000 US dollars/Feu, and this is already lower than the long -signed prices signed before some cargo owners. "

Regarding the oscillating price of the market, the Founder Futures report proposed that "Global inflation is high, the European and American central banks have accelerated the pace of currency tightening, the demand marginal growth rate has slowed down, and even a month -on -month decrease. Measures, the rate and weekly rotation efficiency of ships have risen sharply. With the increase in the supply of the cabin and the significant slowdown in demand growth, the freight rate continues to fall. "

With the decline in the current price, some ship companies have reduced the freight rate under the guidance of the government. The international container giant Dafeihai said that starting from August 1 this year, when large French local retailers imported consumer goods through Dafei Sea, each 40 -foot standard container can get a discount of 500 euros, which is roughly equivalent to 10%discount. For all destinations of containers in French overseas territory, they can also get 500 euros in discounts, with a discount range of about 10%to 20%.

Faced with the decline in maritime prices, the international shipping giant began to "withdraw the ship" to reduce effective capacity and maintain stable maritime prices.

The latest data released by Drewry on July 8 shows that in the next 5 weeks (27 to 31 weeks), the three major shipping alliances in the world will cancel 61 voyages. Among them, the maximum of the 2M Alliance and The Alliance for canceling the number of voyages have reached 23 voyages; the minimum marine alliance cancels 15 voyages. Among the 760 scheduled voyages of major routes such as cross -Pacific, cross -Atlantic, Asia to Northern Europe, and Asia, 86 voyages were canceled between the 27th and 31st weeks, and the cancellation rate reached 11%. In addition, Drewry data also shows that 66%of the blank navigation (empty ship) in the next 5 weeks will occur in the eastward trade route of the cross -Pacific Ocean, mainly to the west coast of the United States.

Set the price in the short term shock

Industry prosperity Future uncertain

According to the analysis of power: "From this year, the overall freight rate of the market for the market is still relatively high. Invoicing the inflation in the United States may affect the daily consumption habits of residents and bring changes in product demand and supply. At the same time, consumers The way of shopping is gradually changing. More people start to turn to online platforms. The expansion of cross -border e -commerce scale may further promote the growth of the demand for the market for the market. "

In addition, Xingye Securities Research reports that domestic exports have maintained their growth and the demand for the marketing market has remained stable. As the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is better, there is room for reimbursement of the freight market.

Haitong Securities Analyst Yu Nan said in the analysis that the high prosperity of high prosperity continued at the beginning of this year, and the balance of supply and demand was still in a relatively fragile stage. After the fiery market of global container shipping in 2021, although the freight rate has fallen at the beginning of this year, it still maintains a high level. The demand side, according to the IMF forecast, the global trade volume growth rate in 2022 was 6.7%, and the import demand of developed countries has not weakened. It is expected that the growth rate of imports in developed countries is 7.3%. At the same time, as the Asian -North American routes in the hot route in 2021, due to the current low -level sales ratio of the US retail library, there is still room for increase. In addition, the US retail sales are still rising, and it is expected to continue to promote the increase in demand for the US -line freight. "As of mid -May, the global container ship in Hong Kong accounted for nearly 37%, which is still higher than the average level of 31%before the epidemic." Yu Nan believes that this means that with further resumption of work and re -production, and Europe and the United States ushered in traditions. In the peak consumption season, collective congestion may continue.

In addition, Yu Nan also said that the industry's head is obvious and has a certain stable effect on freight rates. For example, the three major shipping alliances (2M Alliance, Ocean Alliance, The Alliance) currently account for more than 80%of the market share, which can effectively control the supply of capacity to cope with changes in demand. "We think that short -term freight rates continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the medium and long -term or stable at a reasonable price."

However, Guotai Junan Securities Research Report proposed early warning. Although the amount of transportation of the US -line collection has been high since the beginning of the year, it is slightly decreased compared to the high growth rate in 2019. However, considering the weakening of the impact of the American epidemic, physical consumption is being transferred to service consumption. It is recommended to focus on vigilant vigilance. Requirement at the risk of inflection points. The congestion of the Port of the West Port has improved significantly. With the weakening of the U.S. epidemic impact, the efficiency of the inland supply chain is improved, and the state of supply chain disorders is gradually alleviating. It is expected that the net interest rate in the first half of the year is expected to continue to maintain a high level, and there is a risk of uncertainty in the continuity of the industry in the second half of the year.

Reporter Jianyue Shi Lu

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