How can China respond to the global energy crisis in this round?

During the year, the energy crisis may continue

Fossil energy prices continue to run high

The Russian and Ukraine War, which broke out on February 24, 2022, triggered a round of global energy crisis. Western countries led by the United States on the energy field of Russia have tightened global energy supply and fossil fuel prices rose rapidly.

This has three adverse effects on the operation of the world economy: first, the rise in fossil energy prices has exacerbated the inflation of the world that has been at present last year. The inflation damages the actual purchase ability of the currency and reduces the actual quality of life of residents in various countries; secondly, inflation caused by energy prices has caused upward risk -free interest rates. According to capital asset pricing models, the necessary remuneration of the stock market has increased the stock market. The rate has caused the turmoil of the capital markets of various countries; in addition, the rise in fossil energy prices has an overflowing effect, which drives the simultaneous rise in other raw materials.

The global energy crisis also has a greater impact on China. For a long time, factors such as complex international relations, turbulent geopolitics, unequal regional premiums, and unstable transportation lines have caused a significant impact on the cost of imported crude oil and import channels. It is often facing uncertainty. Although China -Russia economic and trade exchanges are not as close as European and Russia, China's energy dependence is high, especially crude oil and natural gas, and the exterior depends on the degree of foreign dependence of more than 70 % and 40 %, so the Russian -Ukraine conflict has caused crude oil prices and natural gas prices. The impact will profoundly affect China's energy costs.

During the year, the energy crisis may continue, and fossil energy prices continue to operate high.

From the perspective of the supply side, Russia, Ukraine, and Western countries still lack the sincerity of returning to negotiation and negotiation to resolve the conflict of Russia and Ukraine for their own interests. Export sanctions, this will further reduce global energy supply and promote world energy prices upward. Furthermore, the current OPEC member states and Iran have limited capacity increase in the short term. The main member of OPEC's major member states lack the determination to increase the relationship with Russia in order to make a profit and maintain the relationship with Russia. Iran nuclear negotiations are difficult to see in the short term, and Iran lacks the motivation and capacity of increasing production. In addition, the US production capacity is limited. The environmental protection policy of Biden's government does not support continuous development of shale gas, and the refining equipment that has been discontinued is difficult to recover in the short term. From the demand side, although international oil prices are now high, there is still a distance from the historical high, and consumers will not change their consumption habits in the short term.

In response to the impact of the global energy crisis in this round, China should start with six aspects of promoting energy trade, strengthening energy reserves, accelerating energy green low -carbon transformation, supporting the supply of fossil energy, strengthening international policy cooperation, and supporting RMB energy pricing and settlement:

The first is to further promote energy trade. By establishing international consensus (such as G20, OPEC+, etc.), international commitments are made to avoid the implementation of export restrictions that lead to rising global energy prices and hinders importing restrictions on producers in developing countries; The proportion of the middle.

The second is to strengthen energy reserves. Strengthen the strategic reserve of oil, maintain the national oil reserve scale to adapt to the total amount of oil consumption, and encourage social capital to participate in the construction and operation of oil reserve facilities; improve the ability of natural gas reserves and regulation, promote underground gas storage, liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving stations, etc. Construction of gas storage facilities.

The third is to accelerate the transformation of energy green and low -carbon. On the one hand, new energy power such as photovoltaic and wind power should be promoted, and on the other hand, we must improve the status of biological energy. Of course, it is necessary to continue to vigorously develop the new energy vehicle industry and strengthen the energy interaction of new energy vehicles and power grids.

The fourth is to support the supply of fossil energy. Promote the development and utilization of coal safety and intelligent green development, improve the production capacity of natural gas, focus on breaking through unconventional natural gas exploration and development of shale gas and coalbed methane, promote the large -scale development of shale gas, and increase domestic natural gas supply.

Fifth, we must strengthen international policy cooperation. Promote energy change and low -carbon cooperation, and promote the improvement of the global energy governance system. Strengthen cooperation with the International Energy Agency, International Renewable Energy Agency, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), International Energy Forum, and Clean Energy Ministerial Conference. Promote Sino -US clean energy cooperation and deepen China -Europe energy technology innovation cooperation.

Sixth, we must promote RMB pricing in the energy field to help enterprises avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. On the one hand, when promoting the implementation of oil and gas -related projects in China and other countries, the target of the petroleum signature and RMB pricing settlement is achieved; on the other hand, it attracts more large oil companies and international investors to participate Cooperation trade costs and risks of exchange rate fluctuations expand the scope of RMB usage. In addition, China must actively improve the infrastructure construction of the RMB cross -border payment system, continuously expand the channels for cross -border payment and settlement of RMB, and improve the efficiency of the RMB in cross -border liquidation.

(The author is a professor of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, a senior researcher at the Yangtze River Economic Belt Research Institute)

Send 2022.7.11 Total Issue 1051 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine title: How can China deal with the global energy crisis in this round?

Author: He Qing

Edit: Wang Xiaoxia

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