A package of measures to promote the stability of the economy in the first half of the year focus on the focus of infrastructure, manufacturing and consumption in the second half of the year

On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released data from the National CPI (Residents' Consumption Price Index) and PPI (industrial producer factory price index) data in June 2022. Among them, CPI rose by 2.5%year -on -year, and the year -on -year increase expanded, and the month -on -month increased; PPI rose 6.1%year -on -year, and the year -on -year increase continued to fall, which was flat month -on -month.

In this regard, Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that in terms of CPI, in June, the overall situation of the prevention and control of my country's epidemic was stable, and the supply of important livelihood goods was sufficient, and the consumer prices of residents were stable. For continuous advancement, the supply chain of key industrial chain is gradually unblocked and stable, and the effect of maintaining the price of stability and price continues to appear.

After a number of economic data released a positive signal in June, the upcoming announcement of China's GDP data in the first half of the year has also become the focus of attention from all parties in the market. Many analysts predict that the GDP growth rate in the first half of this year may be around 3%in an interview with the reporter of the Securities Daily. With the continuous efforts of a series of stable growth policies, the pace of economic recovery in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate.

The growth rate of GDP in the second quarter may be lower than the first quarter

In the first half of this year, affected by factors such as the epidemic and international environment, the downward pressure on the economy increased. "From March to April, affected by the epidemic, the traffic logistics in many places are not good, the capacity utilization rate has been reduced, and some industrial enterprises have been affected, which constitutes a certain disturbance of the domestic economy." Chuancai Securities chief economist, research, research Director Chen Li said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter.

In this context, in May, the State Council issued the "A Policy and Measures for the Economy", including 33 measures in six aspects. Actively responded to the implementation of accelerated implementation, and successively introduced specific economic measures. A series of policies have been effective, and market confidence has been improved.

According to the recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from May. The economy accelerates the signal. The level of influence of non -manufacturing has also risen significantly for two consecutive months, rising to 54.7%in June.

"PMI data in June shows that the domestic manufacturing recovery is good." Chen Li said that overall, the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter may be slightly lower than the first quarter, but the overall GDP growth rate in the first half of the year may be 3.7%to 4.2% Division.

"It is expected that GDP will remain positively in the second quarter, and the growth rate of GDP in the first half of the year is 2%to 3%." Teng Tai, Dean of Wanbo New Economic Research Institute and chairman of Wanbo Brothers Asset Management Company, told the Securities Daily reporter.

Dongfang Jincheng Chief Macro analyst Wang Qing said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the actual growth rate of GDP in the second quarter of this year is expected to be about 1.2%. Considering that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter is 4.8%, it is expected The growth rate is about 2.9%.

What are the stabilization of the economy in the second half of the year?

For what important efforts to stabilize the economy in the second half of the year, a number of experts said in an interview with the Securities Daily that expanding effective investment and promoting consumption recovery will be the two important starting points. Improve market confidence.

In terms of further expanding effective investment and boosting domestic demand, many experts believe that infrastructure investment will play a key role. "New and old infrastructure investment is the key to stable investment, and it is also an effective means of 'steady growth' and 'expanding domestic demand'." Chen Li said that it is expected that the new and old infrastructure investment will still make efforts in the second half of the year.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said in an interview with the Securities Daily that infrastructure investment, as the main starting point of counter -cyclical adjustment, has a prominent growth effect. At the same time, at the level of effective investment, we need to focus on the manufacturing investment and real estate industry. On the one hand, in the second half of the year, we will continue to strengthen the financial and financial support for the manufacturing industry, encourage scientific and technological innovation, and create favorable conditions for the expansion of manufacturing investment. On the other hand, due to urban policies, the level of personal mortgage loan interest rates are reduced, the pressure of cash flow in real estate enterprises is relieved, and the real estate industry has gradually recovered from sales to development and investment.

In terms of promoting the recovery of consumption, it is clearly stated that "through targeted relief and assistance policies, exploring new consumption models, and subsidizing preferential consumption in key consumption fields, etc. The important point of recovery. "

Teng Tai believes that stable consumption demand is conducive to the long -term sustainable development of my country's economy. At the same time, we must continue to increase the attention of the service industry from the supply side. In 2021, the value -added of the service industry accounted for 53.3%of the GDP, and the contribution rate to economic growth was 54.9%. In the second half of the year, the promotion of the service industry to further recover and improve the marginal consumption tendency of residents is the top priority to achieve the goal of promoting consumption and stabilizing growth.

In Chen Li's opinion, the essence of consumption is to allow residents to dare to consume. Therefore, it is necessary to stabilize the employment situation and introduce a bailout policy at the same time to help enterprises' profit increase.

Obviously, we also have a similar point of view. While giving play to the consumption potential of residents, it is necessary to protect the subject and keep employment. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the financial burden on enterprises, promote the healthy development of the platform's economy, and drive more employment; encourage college students to start their own businesses, increase employment positions of migrant workers through engineering construction; do a good job of employment services and pocket guarantees; Local responsibility.

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