"Japan may become more aggressive"

The Liberal Democratic Party has won the Senate election, Sino -Japanese scholars: "Abe faction" or falling apart, Japan may be more aggressive

In the 26th Parliament Senate election held on the 10th local time, more than half of the ruling alliances formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Gongming Party. The Senate seats of the Japanese Restoration, the National Democratic Party, etc. have reached 166 seats, and it has ensured that more than two -thirds of seats required for constitutional amendments have been ensured. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot dead while attending a lecture on the 8th, making this election more concerned. On the 10th, a number of Chinese and Japanese scholars interviewed to the Global Times reporters that although the Liberal Democratic Party won the Senate election, its real challenge actually came from the future direction of the largest valve "Abe" in the party. Abe's death will not have much impact on Japan's foreign policy, Japan and the United States relations, and strategy on China, but it will be less to balance the extreme voices within the party. Anesthesia.

According to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) reported on the 10th, half of the 248 seats were re -elected in this Senate election, and a vacant seat of the Nagawa Constituency in the election, a total of 125 seats, from 545 candidates to compete. As of press time, more than half of the self -ruling league has obtained more than half of the seats, including non -reform seats, and the Senate seats of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Gongming Party, the Japanese Restoration Association, and the National Democratic Party have reached 166 seats. More than two -thirds of seats required for constitutional amendments.

On July 10, voters were preparing to vote at a vote point in Tokyo, Japan. On the 10th of the 26th Senate in Japan, a total of 545 candidates participated in 125 re -election seats. On the same day, 46,000 voting points located across the country began to accept voting. A real -time invoicing will be issued on the evening of the day, and the final voting results will be announced in the early morning of the next day. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Christopher Zhu)

"The accident of Shinzo Abe made this Senate election a 'Hanging Battle"! "Okada Okada, a guest commentator of Kyodo News Agency, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 10th that the best priority of the Kishida regime lies in the Kishida regime lies in Win the Senate election, strengthen the ruling base plate, and pave the way for long -term regime. At present, although the Liberal Democratic Party has achieved an overwhelming victory, its real challenge actually comes from the future trend of the largest valve "Abe" in the party.

Okada said that although the "Abe" is the largest valve in the Liberal Democratic Party, the candidates are not clear. The Minister of Economic and Industry, Tatsumoto, President of the Liberal Party's Politics, Gao Shi Miao, the former President of Political Tune, Shimura Bowen, the former Economic Regeneration Minister Nishimura Kangyu, and the Senate Director Shi Genghong Cheng, which are considered possible heirs, and are difficult to unify opinions. The phenomenon of "coexistence" of other factional valves began to appear, and the situation was complex and changeable.

Okada's analysis said that this shows that the "Abe" may fall apart, stand on the hills, or be absorbed by other valves, and may even shrink from the largest valve in the party to the smallest valve in the party.

Huo Jiangang, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Research Institute of the Chinese Institute of Modern International Relations, told the Global Times reporter on the 10th that for Japanese politics, Shinzo Abe's identity is not just a former Prime Minister, but a very important politician. Different from the step -by -step "turning to leave", Abe's "retreat" after the steps stepped down, which is very active and has a strong influence in Japanese politics.

Huo Jiangang said that the death of Shinzo Abe will definitely lead to the power space of the power left by the Liberal Democratic Party, and the role of "Abe" will be weakened. At the same time, Kishida Wenxiong's claim will be more clearly reflected. Even if there is the "Abe" forces insisting on the Abe route, Kishida Wenxiong does not necessarily buy it.

U.S. State Department spokesman Pois said on the 10th that US Secretary of State Brills will visit Japan on the 11th to talk with senior Japanese government. What is the movement of the Japanese and American Alliance after Abe's death? Director of the Northeast Asia Research Institute of Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, Ji Zhigang told the Global Times reporter on the 10th that Abe's death will not have a much impact on Japanese -US relations. For two years of Abe, from Sakurai to Kishida Wenxiong, the foreign policy was actually on the extension line of the Abe period. The extension of bilateral and multilateral policies in Japan and the United States has begun to develop normally. The economic framework did not leave the orbit of "Abe Economics". Moreover, Abe's death could not change Japan's foreign policy with the Japanese and American alliance as its core.

Shinzo Abe Three Information Map

"However, in comparison, Shinzo Abe is more independent, flexible, and more capable. He knows how to use the game between China and the United States to fight for benefits for Japan." Abe's death made them missing a 'friend', a well -known politician who could shout for the U.S. Indo -Pacific Strategy and Taiwan issues, and had one less "candidate 'in the United States to control the Japanese political situation."

Some analysts believe that Kishida Wentuki won the Senate election, and he could not dissolve the House of Representatives until 2025, and ushered in the "golden three years" without national politics elections. He can also use this time to promote constitutional amendment Important topics.

So is it possible for Kishida Wenxiong's "golden period"? In this regard, Huo Jiangang said that the biggest unstable factor in Kishida Cabinet lies in Abe Jinsan Three, which has been eliminated for the opposite shore. However, the internal affairs issues are complicated, especially for more than two years from the next presidential election. "Everything is possible", it is difficult to predict. "For the right -wing forces that resist the relationship between China, Kishida Wenxiong does not actually have the ability to suppress. This is where he is not as good as Shinzo." When talking about relations with China, Okada told the Global Times reporter that he eliminated and excluded it. The opposition of the right -wing forces within the party and improved the ability and guts of relations with China. The Kishida Wenxiong did not have it. Therefore, within his tenure, the possibility of improvement of Sino -Japanese relations is very low. Okada reminded that in order to transfer domestic contradictions to foreign countries, the Japanese government will continue to use national emotions and hostile to China and North Korea.

Kuang Zhigang told the "Global Times" reporter that in the two years since Abe's step -down, after the continuous advancement of Two Yoshio and Kishida Wenxiong, the Japanese policy has basically taken shape, including constitutional amendments and strengthening security mechanisms. He also said that Abe has the ability to balance various extreme voices within the party during his lifetime, and now this balance is missing. In the future, the conservative gesture of the entire Japanese society may become harder. Especially in some regional affairs, Japan may become more aggressive, which has caused concerns about neighboring countries.

Source: Global Times-Global Network/Xing Xiaojing Xu Yale Xu Coco

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