Red Star Observation ｜ The new crown destroys the tourism industry, Russia and Ukraine conflict with the snow, and Sri Lanka may push down the "fragile economy" Domino card

In the early morning of July 10, local time, Sri Lanka President Tabaya Rajapaksa has notified the speaker Abdadner that he will resign as president on July 13. Earlier that day, the Sri Lankan Prime Minister's office issued a statement saying that Prime Minister Vikramaxinha was willing to resign.

On July 9, Coronapo, the capital of Sri Lanka, broke out the largest demonstration of parade in the near future. The demonstrator even broke into the presidential official residence, the presidential office area and the Prime Minister's palace. In the middle of the night on the 9th, a large number of demonstrators set fire arson and burned the official residence of the Prime Minister. The Chinese Embassy in Sri Lanka released the news on the 9th to remind Chinese citizens in Sri Lanka to strengthen safety prevention.

↑ On July 9, local time, the largest existing demonstration of the recent exit of Coronapu, Sri Lanka, and the demonstrators rushed into the presidential residence

In recent months, Sri Lanka has been facing problems such as lack of foreign exchange, high prices, and tight power supply and oil supply. The protesters have successively launched demonstration protests, asking the government to quickly resolve the economic crisis facing the country. On May 9 this year, the public's anger and protest forced the former Prime Minister Maxinda Rajapaksa to step down, but over time, the biggest crisis in this 70 years has not improved. Masinger said that "the Sri Lanka economy has completely collapsed." On July 6, he told the parliament that "the country has bankruptcy."

Some analysts believe that the dilemma of Sri Lanka has shown to the world that the Russian -Ukraine conflict is placing some vulnerable economies in danger. A conflict between Russia and Ukraine not only triggers a wave of refugee in the Ukrainian countries, the global energy supply crisis and the turbulent financial market, but also made an unreasonable island country that seemed to be an "earthquake". only.

Russia and Ukraine conflict pushed it to the cliff

In the past few months, Sri Lanka has been deeply trapped in the "economic death vortex", and the economic situation has "seen worsening every week."

According to reports, Sri Lanka has a population of about 22 million, which depends on imports in terms of drugs and fuels. However, under the double impact of the new crown epidemic and the conflict of Russia and Ukraine, the price of commodities in the world's commodities soared, allowing this highly dependent on imported South Asian island countries due to insufficient foreign exchange reserves, leading to a serious shortage of living materials such as fuel, coal, milk powder.

For Sri Lankans facing the collapse of the country, survival has also become a challenge. The World Grain Program said on June 24 that the total population of Sri Lanka, that is, more than 6 million, has fallen into the predicament of "I don't know where the next meal comes from".

↑ On June 24, a staff member of the Sri Lanka parliamentary engineering service department planted vegetables at home to prevent food shortage

Analysis pointed out that Sri Lanka's step by step to a completely collapse was caused by many unique situations and internal causes. However, the shocking collapse of this country is also inextricably linked to a series of wider and interrelated global phenomena. For example, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has led to the surge in global food and energy prices. The edge of the cliff.

Earlier this year, with the opening of the border around the world, Sri Lanka ushered in the long -awaited recovery of tourism after the long -awaited epidemic. At present, about 30%of tourists this year come from Russia, Ukraine, Poland and Belarus. The conflict occurred at the end of February cut off the sources of these countries.

According to reports, in the past 30 years, Sri Lanka has been seeking to rebuild its own economy and invested millions of dollars in tourism infrastructure. Official data show that Sri Lanka's tourism revenue in 2019 is $ 3.6 billion, but During the two years of the epidemic, its tourism revenue fell less than one -fifth of 2019.

↑ On April 2nd, in Sri Lanka, people lined up in the fuel pumping station to buy fuel with empty pots.

After the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, Sri Lanka has been working hard to avoid debt defaults due to the decline in foreign exchange reserves. In order to control the domestic economic situation, the government decided to raise interest rates, depreciate the currency, and at the same time limited the necessary imports. In addition to increasing the cost of lending and depreciation of Sri Lankan, former Sri Lanka governor Kabrall also urged the government to restrict the import of about 300 non -necessary products such as imported electronics and Apple products, and increase domestic fuel prices and electricity prices. Kabrall said: "Faced with this unprecedented global crisis, the government seems to be actively taking response measures, which helps to guide the stability of the economy."

In fact, as early as March 2020, in order to retain foreign exchange reserves, the Sri Lankan government promulgated a extensive import ban, which caused a shortage of key commodities. Milk powder, sugar, lentils and other key supplies in the supermarket have been quantitative distribution. Last year, the Sri Lankan government prohibited the import of chemical fertilizers in order to promote organic agriculture plans, which led to a shortage of nutrients. The crops were owed and caused protests, forcing the government to overthrow the decision in November.

However, on May 19, Sri Lanka still failed to avoid the first sovereign debt default since its independence. It is impossible to pay $ 78 million in debt interest, which detonates the sovereign debt crisis. According to CCTV News, Sri Lanka's available foreign exchange reserves at that time were less than $ 50 million, while foreign debt had reached $ 51 billion. The country's economic crisis will last at least two years.

Before the prime minister and the president announced their resignation, the fuel of the country was almost exhausted, and the inflation rate of food soared to 80%. Due to the shortage of fuel, the power outage time is continuously extended. In March of this year, Sri Lanka began to take a 7 -hour power outage every day. On March 31, the Sri Lanka authorities announced another 13 hours a day, which seriously affected the work and life of the people. ↑ Sri Lanka oil price changes diagram

By last weekend, Sri Lanka government officials said that the remaining fuel was not enough to maintain basic services such as bus, train and medical vehicles, and 22 million residents across the country were required to work at home. According to reports, Sri Lanka has announced that it has stopped selling fuel to ordinary people from July 10, becoming the first country in the world since the 1970s.

"Internal Crisis Group) Analysts Ellen Caita said:" Even if there is no Russian conflict, Sri Lanka will fall into crisis. " That is, the fuel credit limit for two months can be maintained, and now it can only be maintained for one month. Even if the rescue is obtained, the food, fuel and medicine you can buy have become less.

Russia and Ukraine's conflict and "fragile economy" Sri Lanka is not "the only"

Beginning on June 20, the Sri Lankan government and the International Monetary Fund organized a 10 -day negotiation on a possible rescue plan. The negotiations have ended last week, but no agreement was reached.

Vikra Masinger said on Tuesday, "In the past, we had discussed as a developing country. But the situation is different now. We are now in the negotiation as the bankruptcy country. Therefore, we have to face a more difficult and complex. situation."

It is reported that the Sri Lankan government has previously believed that some loan conditions organized by the International Monetary Fund are too harsh and unwilling to deal with the agency. Prior to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Sri Lanka also contacted Asian countries to discuss bilateral credit quotas to avoid rescue from the International Monetary Fund. At that time, one day after the Sri Lankan Minister of Finance visited India, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the social platform that the National Bank of India and the Sri Lankan government signed a $ 1 billion credit agreement for purchasing food, medicines and other necessities.

↑ On April 3rd, Sri Lanka Koronapo, Sri Lanka's economic crisis caused large -scale protests.

However, with the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the Sri Lankan administration finally sought help from the International Monetary Fund, and President Rajapaksa also promised to fulfill his obligations. The International Monetary Fund organizes Kennis Akinwe in Singapore Asia's sovereign debt, and said before that due to the high debt of Sri Lanka, it is necessary to reorganize its domestic economic system. But "the country has no history of breach of contract, which also means that they have no experience in reorganization."

Economist Anke Schola said: "The Russian -Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the gap between the demand between external funds and the source of available funds." Schola also said that in South Asia, other sources of external funds and available funds also said. The fragile countries include Bangladesh, Maldives, and Nepal. Although the direct trade and financial contact with Russia and Ukraine is not much connected, "the impact of rising prices and shortage of supply chain is huge."

Some analysts believe that the crisis of Sri Lanka also shows the world that the Russian -Ukraine conflict is placing some fragile economic states in danger and cracking down on millions of people's efforts for decades for decades.

In June, Vikra Masinger also sighed in an interview that the Russian -Ukraine conflict accelerated the economic collapse of Sri Lanka. He also warned that Sri Lanka would not be the only or last "fall". He said: "I think at the end of this year, you can see the influence of other countries."

A joint report released by the International Humanitarian Organization "Oxfam" and "Save the Children" states that the Russian -Ukraine conflict has soared to the "record level", which caused Africa Millions of people in the east cannot get food. In Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, one person died every 48 seconds of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.

Red Star News reporter Xu Huo Intern Guo Yan

Edit Zhang Xun

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