There is a basis for maintaining stable prices -Price Articles observed in the middle of the year of China in 2022

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 9th. Question: There is a basis for maintaining stability and prices -Price Articles observed in the middle of the Chinese economy in 2022

Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun, Zhang Zhilong, Wang Yan

Since the beginning of this year, in the context of international inflation, my country's prices have been stable. The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 9th. From January to June, the National Residents' Consumption Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7%over the same period last year. Experts analyze that in the second half of the year, my country's prices may continue to gently rise, and it is a solid foundation for maintaining stable prices.

In the first half of the year, the price is generally stable in a reasonable range

Statistics show that in the first half of the year, the month -on -year increase of CPIs was less than 3%year -on -year. Among them, the increase in June was the highest in the first half of the year, reaching 2.5%, which was mainly affected by the lower base of last year. But still in a reasonable range.

The "scissors difference" of CPI and the National Industrial Producer's Factory Price Index (PPI) has narrowed further. In 2021, the "scissors difference" of the two in 2021 was 7.2 percentage points, which fell to 6 percentage points in the first half of this year.

Focusing on the key links of stable prices, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on April 29 clearly requested that "do a good job of energy resources to maintain stability and prices, and do a good job of spring plowing and cultivation."

The central government issued a subsidy of 30 billion yuan to the actual grain farmers, and invested 1 million tons of national potassium fertilizer reserves; from May 1st to March 31, 2023, the tax rate for the implementation of zero coal implementation tax rates was zero; Accelerate the release of high -quality coal production capacity, improve the long -term transaction price mechanism of coal ...

Faced with global inflation pressure, my country has resolutely not engaged in the strong stimulus of "large water drilling", scientifically grasped policy strength, rhythm and focus, ensuring that important people's livelihood goods and basic energy supply and stable prices have become important "stabilizers in global prices. "".

Since the beginning of this year, especially in March, the local epidemic has been frequent, which has put a certain pressure on the price of maintaining stability. In this regard, we have increased its efforts to organize supply, strengthen market price monitoring, analysis and early warning, and unblock the "last meter" distribution channel to ensure that the supply of important people's livelihood products is not out of stock and continuously.

CPI is expected to continue the moderate upward trend

In recent times, affected by factors such as some breeding household pressure fences and the increase in the demand for consumption in the epidemic situation, the price of pigs has risen rapidly.

"In the fourth quarter of last year, the amount of sow storage columns was slightly more than the green and reasonable area where the pig production capacity regulated. From January to May this year, the number of sows in the country can continue to be in green and reasonable areas." Associate researcher Zhou Lin said.

Comprehensive analysis, the overall supply of pork in the market is guaranteed, and the government regulation is sufficient. From the current supply fundamental perspective, my country's meat egg milk and fruit and vegetable fish have good production situations and sufficient supply. The price of "vegetable baskets" is stable and supportive.

At 2:30 in the morning on the 8th, the trading halls of the Shouguang Lands Agricultural Products Logistics Park in Shandong began to get busy. Recently, vegetables such as zucchini, cabbage, organic cauliflower, Beibei pumpkin and other vegetables with a large number of listings come to the country with the cars. Over the place.

"my country's goods and service markets are generally sufficient, especially in the summer grain harvest to provide solid support for the stable grain production throughout the year. In the second half of the year, CPI is expected to continue the moderate rise and continue to operate in a reasonable range." Say.

It is worth noting that the current situation of my country's epidemic prevention and control is still severe, and it is very important to ensure that the supply of important livelihood products affected by the epidemic affected by the epidemic is very important.

"We must pay special attention to the supply of materials in high -risk areas in the epidemic, further implement the linkage mechanism of social assistance and guarantee standards and price increases, and alleviate the impact of rising prices on the basic life of local difficult people." Xu Guangjian, vice president of the China Price Association, said Essence

PPI gain may continue to fall

At present, the re -production and re -production of various places has continued to advance, and the supply chain of key industrial chains has gradually opened up and stable, and the effect of maintaining stability and price policy has continued to appear. The year -on -year increase of PPI declined by month, among which the first half of them rose 7.7%year -on -year, lower than the 8.1%increase of last year.

In response to the significant rise in commodity prices, relevant state departments actively responded to timely adopt measures such as bidirectional supply and demand regulation, the supervision of the future spot market, and expected management. PPI gains are orderly.

Affected by external factors, the external pressure of energy in my country has increased, especially the increase in oil prices, but in general, energy supply and demand remains smooth and orderly.

Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, previously introduced that at the end of May, the coal deposits of the national unified power supply plant reached more than 159 million tons, an increase of more than 50 million tons; At a high level, it can effectively guarantee demand.

The commodity insurance policy is also constantly working. The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that with the consent of the State Council, when the international oil price exceeds the upper limit of $ 130 per barrel, the price of domestic refined oil products will not be increased in the short term (not more than two months), and the international oil price is higher than $ 130 per barrel than $ 130 per barrel. The cumulative time to regulate the upper limit is more than two months, and relevant policies and measures will be clearly clarified in advance.

With the tightening of global liquidity, the recent decline in international commodity prices has fallen, which has weakened the influence of my country's inputability. At the same time, the domestic supply -stable price effect has continued to appear. In addition, the tail -tailed factor has gradually narrowed, and the PPI is expected to continue the decline.Although the increase in PPI is expected to continue to fall, the price of commodities may continue to maintain a high level of shock, and the trend of transmission to the CPI may continue.Statistics show that the ex -factory prices of living materials have risen for several months, and the year -on -year increases have risen to 1.7%in June. It is expected that the general daily necessities prices in the second half of the year will still rise slightly.

[Editor in charge: Ma Junqing]

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