Original chairman of China Import and Export Bank: Under short -term pressure, the central government will allow local governments to lift debt in disguise and re -ignite the dead ash

"To stabilize expectations, we must start with the pain points of the market entity. Grasp the key to the scientific prevention and control epidemic, timely, clearly, and clearly announce the operating standards of dynamic zero policy to the society, solve doubts and confusion, strictly restrict all places in various places in various places Implement the middle layer of extraction. "On July 9, the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and member of the Economic Committee, the former chairman and party secretary of the China Import and Export Bank at the" 2022 Caixin Summer Summit: Copy Uncertainty " This is the current improvement of expected management. Earlier, Hu Xiaolian had been the vice president of the People's Bank of China for a long time.

▲ Hu Xiaolian delivered a speech at the summit

Hu Xiaolian also emphasized that there must be specific implementation measures to avoid the market's wait and see that the market is "only listening to the stairs and not seeing people down"; at the same time, it should also be strengthened and trustworthy in accordance with regulations. The government will go back to the old road that stimulates real estate, and it is not possible to expect that the central government will allow local governments to borrow in disguise. If the dead ash is re -burned, we cannot expect to continue to start the "two high" project investment.

Since the beginning of this year, under the pressure of demand shrinkage, supply shock, and expected weakness, my country's economic development has also superimposed the three negative effects of the new crown epidemic, Russia and Ukraine conflict, and global high inflation. Hu Xiaolian said that under the severe economic situation, management and guidance expectations should be more important tools for steady growth, and further play a further role in boosting demand expectations, improving supply expectations, weakening inflation expectations, and reducing the expected of the deterioration of the trade environment. Realize the goal of restoring economic growth.

"Management and guidance expectations should not only pay attention to short -term (within one year), also focus on the medium term (one to three years), and look at the long -term (more than three years)." Hu Xiaolian emphasized.

Implement the measures for operation measures to clear the "traffic lights" so that the market is not allowed to wait and see

Hu Xiaolian said that it is expected to be the future judgment of the market body. The expected management must be in front of the judgment and action, and to do it carefully. "There are both directions, principles, paths, methods, and ways to operate."

When it comes to the major theoretical innovation of "traffic lights" for capital at the Central Economic Work Conference in 2021, Hu Xiaolian emphasized that it should be clearly implemented in practice in a timely manner. For example, the large -scale payment platform corporate supervision policy introduced in June this year provides high -efficiency and convenient payment services for platform capital to turn on green lights, open yellow lights on licensed financial business, and disorderly expand brutal growth and bright red lights. Hu Xiaolian emphasized that the traffic lights of other key areas and industries should also be set up as soon as possible.

"If‘ only listening to the stairs and do n’t see people down ’, capital is observing, it is not conducive to forming positive and stable expectations, and transforming into a driving force for growth." Hu Xiaolian said.

Grasp the key to the scientific prevention and control epidemic, publish the operating standards, and strictly restrict the layer by layer

Hu Xiaolian also emphasized that management expectations should seize the key points, cut the key, and highlight the accuracy. What is the most concerned and focus on market entities, and the relevant departments must have counting the demands of the market entity and solved it in a timely and efficient solution.

Hu Xiaolian believes that the biggest uncertainty in the first half of the year comes from the epidemic. Recently, the quarterly -entrepreneurial questionnaire surveys from banks, entrepreneurs, and residents showed that banks and entrepreneurs believe that the ratio of monetary policy loosening has increased significantly from the previous month and year -on -year. At a high level, the macroeconomic heat index of banks and entrepreneurs has decreased significantly, residents' expected income has also decreased, investment tendency is reduced, and their willingness to consume is reduced. This shows that when the epidemic direction and prevention and control behavior are difficult to predict and grasp, although the funding level and loan investment have guaranteed the stable growth, the expectations of market entities are still weak and have not significantly improved under the stimulus of favorable financing policies.

"To stabilize expectations, we must start with the pain points of the market entity. Grasp the key to the scientific prevention and control epidemic, timely, clearly, and clearly announce the operating standards of dynamic zero policy to the society, solve doubts and confusion, strictly restrict all places in various places in various places Execute the middle layer of extraction. "Hu Xiaolian said. She predicts that in the second half of the year, market players are expected to prevent and control early discovery, fast disposal, more accurate and timely due to the adjustment of the situation due to the situation, and it will be stable in the prevalence of the situation. Economic policies can achieve better results.

Enhance the determination, keep the "housing and not fry", the market cannot expect to go back to the old road that stimulates real estate

After formulating policies, it is expected that management must "enhance the determination, keep trust in accordance with regulations, and focus on stability." Hu Xiaolian emphasized that in order to adhere to the promise of the promise, the determined policies must be implemented, and the laws and regulations must be adhered to, and the government's credibility is essential to stable expectations. She specifically pointed out that under the current situation of stable economic pressure, there are many related policies, but the difficulties facing real estate, local development, and green transformation are solved by forcing reforms and innovation, instead of expected to return to the old road.

In the hot topic real estate policy, Hu Xiaolian said that the principle of the country's determination is that the "house does not live in housing" and does not use real estate as a means of stimulating the economy, and it is not expected that under the pressure of the market, the government will return to the old road that stimulates real estate is stimulated. Essence It is necessary to carry out a new exploration of the real estate development model, streamline the karate jump -type model with low capital investment and high liabilities in the past, invest a full amount of capital, maintain a reasonable proportion of full debt to capital, and form to meet rigidity and improve housing. Lord's stable and healthy development model.

Under the policy of adhering to the risk of local debt risks, it is not possible to expect that the central government will allow local governments to lift debt in disguise in short -term pressure. It is necessary to continue to open the main entrance, block the dark road, and meet the controlling the needs of expanding infrastructure investment by increasing special debt and policy financial debt. Hu Xiaolian also mentioned that in the development of green and low -carbon transformation, it is not expected that under the pressure of investing in weak investment, "radish is faster and not washed the mud", and continues to start the "two high" project investment. Green buildings, green manufacturing, green consumption and other huge blue oceans have expanded to improve the carbon trading market, and implement differentiated support policies and differentiated regulatory measures.

Persist in do not engage in large water irrigation and actively deal with inflation besiege

Speaking of macroeconomic expectations, Hu Xiaolian pointed out that the future of inflation and global growth prospects that are not optimistic will affect domestic growth expectations. This is an important task for China to guide expectations.

"China's economy cannot emerge in the West's stagnation expectations." Hu Xiaolian said that this requires China to implement more active and accurate fiscal policies as soon as possible. Stable monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, leaving room for room. Tools and quantitative tools, insist on not engaged in large water irrigation.

"Although the decline in the global economy is not good for my country, the economic development will be returned to the inner law in the end, and the resource allocation must eventually be carried out in accordance with market laws. Against globalization, it is impossible It will stop and actively participate in international economic and trade cooperation will not weaken. "Hu Xiaolian said.

Red Star reporter Hu Yiwen intern Zhang Xiaoshang Beijing reported Beijing

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