The commodity week newspaper 丨 oil prices have experienced roller coasters, the price of gold has reached a 9 -month low, and the steel market supply continues to shrink

21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Qiang intern Xue Yuanyuan and intern Chen Jiejie Beijing reported

This week (July 4th-July 8th), the major commodities have changed frequently. In the context of poor economic prospects, international oil prices have fallen below $ 100/barrel, which has been significantly picked up since then. Qi price continues to rise; international gold prices have reached a new low in nearly nine months, and copper prices have fallen below $ 8,000/ton, a new low in 19 months.

With the advent of midsummer, the load of grids in many places reached a new high, and the supply of electricity and power coal insurance attracted the attention of all walks of life. CLP pointed out that during the peak summer, the country's power supply and demand was generally balanced, and the power supply during the peak power consumption period in some areas will be tight.

International oil prices fell below $ 100/barrel

This week, international oil prices have gone through the trend of roller coaster, and after significantly decreased, it has risen significantly.

On July 5th and 6th trading days, international oil prices continued to fall from the high level, and the minimum of WTI crude oil futures fell to $ 95.1/barrel, down to the lowest value since early May; Brent crude oil also fell below $ 100/ Barrel. Since then, international oil prices have rebounded significantly. As of the close of July 9, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures delivered in August rose 2.01%to close at $ 104.79/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures delivered in September rose 2.26%to close at $ 107.02/barrel.

Recently, the main factors that affect the trend of the oil market are still economic expectations. At present, the US economic data is poor, the market's concerns about economic recession continues, and the market risk aversion is heating up. In addition, the demand for high oil prices to suppress terminal demand has led to decline in oil prices. On the other hand, the crude oil market is still facing concerns of supply shortages, hedging part of the negative impact, and providing relatively solid support for oil prices.

European natural gas crisis continues

The supply side is constantly disturbing, and the European natural gas market continues to rise. On July 7, the price of TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas rose to 183.18 euros/MWh, setting the highest value since March 8. As of the closing of July 8th, the domestic gas base price in Europe had closed to 169.13 euros/MWh, and a total of 14.4%in the week.

Recently, Russia has continuously reduced the supply of natural gas in Europe, causing concerns about many European countries for energy security. During this week, the Norwegian National Petroleum Corporation (Equinor) once occurred in the suspension of oil and gas field employees, but the incident ended quickly under the intervention of the local government.

On July 6, the European Parliament listed natural gas and nuclear energy as green energy, which means that the EU's natural gas and nuclear energy industries will receive more funding support, but opponents criticize that this will slow the pace of EU energy green transformation.

International Energy Agency: In 2022, the growth of natural gas demand will be converted to negative

On July 8th, the International Energy Agency released "Natural Gas Analysis and Outlook 2022-2025" pointed out that in the perspective of demand, after the unusual demand recovery in 2021, the growth rate of global natural gas demand in 2022 will turn negative to negative Value will stagnate in the short term, and it will still be highly uncertain by 2025.

According to the International Energy Agency, in the first half of 2022, the spot prices of natural gas in Europe and Asia reached the highest point of history. Democratic gas demand in Europe decreased by 10%year -on -year. Affected by high temperatures and records of high temperatures, the use of natural gas in industrial and power departments was greatly used significantly Falling, below 2020, the possibility of potential Russian supply interruption brings further downward risk.

The outlook pointed out that from the perspective of the supply side, the increase in natural gas production in 2025 will be concentrated in North America and the Middle East, but the growth of growth will still be limited; the slowdown in the growth of natural gas demand does not mean that the speed of energy transformation will accelerate, Europe, Eurasia and Asia It is important to formulate and implement further energy transformation policies such as the mainland and other mature markets to accelerate the decline in consumption.

Power coal is mainly stable

This week, the price of power coal fluctuated overall. As of July 8, the domestic power coal main futures contract received 850 yuan/ton.

With the advent of midsummer and the continuous recovery of the economy, the load of power grid in many places has reached a new high in the near future. During the peak summer, the dynamics of power supply and the coal market during the summer also attracted much attention. CCTD China Coal Market Network pointed out that Shaanxi Gaoka Coal rebounded sharply this week, and the strength of the origin has also supported the price of port prices. CCTD pointed out that the market coal resources have not been eased in the short term, but high prices also inhibit demand, and the market is expected to be stable.

China Electricity Union: The power supply during the peak power consumption period in some areas will be tight

On July 6, the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation issued the "Annual Development Report of the China Electric Power Industry 2022", saying that the overall balance of power supply and demand in 2022, the peak summer and the peak and winter, the power supply in some regions is tight. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is between 5%-6%.

Jiang Debin, deputy director of the CSI Data and Statistics Center, predicts that during the peak summer in 2022, the national power supply and demand is generally balanced, and some provinces in East China, Central and Southern areas will be tight during the peak period of electricity consumption.

The price of gold is a new low of 9 months

The price of gold continued to fall this week. On July 6, the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $ 1737.20/ounce in August, and the spot gold in London fell 1738.56 US dollars per ounce, which was the minimum closing price in nearly nine months.

As of the closing of July 8, the price of gold futures in the New York Commodity Exchange rose to $ 1741.98/ounce, and the spot gold in London rose to $ 1741.61/ounce. Founder's mid -term futures research report pointed out that the Fed accelerated the tightening of monetary policy, the market's concerns about economic recession continued to heat up, and the expectations of the economic recession in Europe and the United Kingdom also increased. The US dollar index was strong. The commodity of the commodities formed a large negative impact, and precious metals fell sharply. Since then, as the US dollar index has fallen at a high level, precious metals have ended in a row, and a small rebound occurs.

Copper aluminum price continues to fall

At the beginning of this week, Lun Tong continued to fall. By July 5, Lun Tong closed below the $ 8,000 mark and closed at $ 7,596/ton on July 6, a new low in nearly 19 months. On July 7, Lunbin ended five consecutive declines and closed at $ 7859/ton.

Huarong Futures Research Report pointed out that after the meeting of the Federal Reserve's June meeting, the market uncertainty declined and the prices of copper picked up. However, the demand for copper in China is still weak at present, and it is expected that the price of copper is expected to rebound limited. In the context of high inflation, the global central bank's radical interest rate hike may slow down with the growth rate of European and American economic growth, and overseas copper consumption will also weaken. Moreover, the pressure of copper supply in the second half of the year will appear, and it is expected that subsequent copper prices will still decline.

The price of Shanghai aluminum continued to decline this week. As of the early morning of July 9, the Shanghai Aluminum main futures contract closed at 18,410 yuan/ton, continuing the decline since early June.

Steel market may rise up

The comprehensive price of Lange Steel National Steel this week was 4553 yuan, a decrease of 2.2%from last week. The prices of major steel varieties declined.

According to Lange Iron and Steel, the operating rate of major domestic steel companies this week has continued to decline, the national inventory of steel society in the country has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks, the inventory of building materials factories has continued to decline, and the inventory of the medium -sighted board plant has risen to a new high. At present, the price of raw materials is generally adjusted. The prices of iron ore and scrap steel have fallen. Coke prices have decreased by 200 yuan/ton. Steel prices continue to bottom out. Steel manufacturers are still low.

The Lange Iron and Steel Analysis pointed out that the implementation of a number of stable growth measures in China is conducive to promoting the marginal improvement of future steel demand. On the supply side, the loss of losses in the steel industry expands, forcing enterprises to actively reduce production, and the steel market presents the increase in supply and reduction. The trend is weakening, but because the absolute level of inventory is still high, further recovery of terminal demand will be the main factor that determines the direction of the steel market. It is expected that the domestic steel market may have a slight upward market next week.

Iron ore vibration fell

The price of iron ore this week has fallen in a small fluctuation. As of the closing of July 8th, the domestic iron ore main futures price closed at 737 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the closing price last Friday. The price index of the general iron ore closed at $ 114.1/ton on Friday, which was slightly lower than the price last Friday.

Lange Iron and Steel Analysis pointed out that recent steel mills have increased, the operating rate of blast furnaces has continued to decline, the demand for iron ore has shrunk, and the price of ore is therefore stable. At present, the supply and demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, and port inventory has been rebounded for the first time since March, and the loss of the steel industry has also expanded. Steel companies have the willingness to suppress raw material prices.

At the same time, overseas economic downlink pressure and US dollar index are suppressed by commodities. It is expected that the price of iron ore will still be under pressure, and it will operate next week.

- END -