Germany and South Korea's trade surplus are no longer.

At present, with the high prices of global energy and raw materials, most industrial countries are undergoing trade deficits, and even Germany, known as the "European Economic Locomotives", cannot be spared. For the first time in 30 years, trade deficit has occurred.

In May, according to the French customs, the French trade deficit reached 13.1 billion euros, a record high; the Japanese trade deficit was 2.385 trillion yen (about 17.8 billion US dollars), a new high in 8 years. In the first half of this year, the South Korean trade deficit set a historical record of $ 10.3 billion. Previously, South Korea was a trade surplus for 24 consecutive years from 1998 to 2021.

Whether it is Germany, France, Japan, or South Korea, it can be regarded as the world's leading industry.

As a traditional manufacturing power, Germany cannot be underestimated. The German industry is highly fine, and its machine tools, automobiles and high -speed rail are developed. For example, car brands such as Porsche, Audi, Mercedes -Benz, BMW, Volkswagen are all from Germany. At the same time, Germany has many "invisible champions" in industry, with 1307 similar companies, accounting for 47.8%of the world's. Therefore, Germany's long -term maintenance of the national economic pillar position of industry is also the most important support behind it as an exporter.

Japan's light industry and heavy industry are relatively advanced. Its steel, shipbuilding, chemical industry, infrastructure, high -speed rail and machinery industries are in the world's leading position. Taking the Japanese automobile industry as an example, Toyota and Honda Motors almost drive on the roads of countries around the world.

a container accumulated in a port in Tokyo, Japan, the picture comes from Reuters

Although the land area of ​​South Korea is about 100,000 square kilometers, which is equivalent to Jiangsu Province in my country, South Korea occupies an important place in the industrial fields of semiconductors, automobiles, chemicals, steel, and ships. South Korea ’s Puxai Railway Corporation, SK Group, Hyundai Automobile, Kia Automobile, Hyundai Heavy Industry, Samsung Heavy Industry, etc. are world -class heavy industry companies.

But why is the aforementioned industry generally present a trade deficit? Some analysts believe that this may be due to factors such as the serious dependence of imports of energy supply and exports of economic structure.

In Europe, taking Germany as an example. As the largest European economy, Germany's trade deficit in May is 1 billion euros, which has never appeared since the unification of East and Germany in 1991. The country's cross -border exports fell by 0.5%in May, while imports increased by 2.7%, far exceeding German economist expectations.

Against the background of economic prospects, German companies are facing the situation of soaring import costs and weak product demand. "In the current environment, it is not surprising that exports have declined," Oliver Rakau, an economist at the Oxford Economics Institute of Economic Research (Oxford Economics), said that he must pay attention to imports, especially price trends.

Economists analyze that multiple factors such as the conflict between the situation in Russia and the new crowns have severely damaged the international supply chain and have a significant impact on Germany's export -oriented economy.

A container ship is stopped at the largest port in Germany, the picture is from AFP

In May, the prices of imported products such as energy, food and manufacturers such as energy, food and manufacturers rose by more than 30%year -on -year, while the price of export products rose by about 15%.

Rakau believes that even if the data adjusted after inflation is not so significant, foreign trade will still have a negative impact on German economic growth, "the trade prospects are quite dim."

Carl Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics, said in a report that the moral trade surplus has disappeared, and the rise in imports of energy, food and raw materials has pushed the import bills. "

The transformation of trade balance highlights the pressure from Germany and other European economies.

Like many other European countries, Germany has been paying higher prices for energy and food, especially after the Russian and Ukraine War. Russia is a major energy exporter in Europe. After a local conflict with Ukraine, European countries actively cut Russia's natural gas imports, bringing unstable factors to the energy market, leading to rising energy prices.

In addition, Ukraine is an important exporter of wheat and other grains. The outbreak of the war caused the country to sell food and agricultural products abroad as usual as usual. Local farmers cannot sow and plant food normally, which may further increase the price of grain in the autumn harvest season.

Jens Sudekum, a professor of economics at the Institute of Economics, Germany, analyzed CNBC (American Consumer News and Business Channel) that if energy prices decline, "the usual trade surplus will appear again. Economic decline is still approaching. "

Looking at the South Korean side, the South Korean trade deficit in the first half of this year reached the highest historical record. According to recent data from the Ministry of Commerce and Commercial Resources of the South Korean Industry, South Korea's export volume in the first half of this year was 350.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.6%year -on -year, and the import value was 360.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.2%year -on -year. Although the export value in the first half of this year reached a record high, due to the rise in energy imports, the trade deficit reached US $ 10.3 billion. At present, South Korea's oil, natural gas and other energy are still largely dependent on imports.

Import and export containers are piled on a dock in Busan, the largest port city in South Korea. The picture comes from Yonhap News Agency . However, the export prospects of South Korea in the second half of this year are not optimistic. According to the "Export Outlook Survey of 2022", which is ranked in the first half of the 2022 in the second half of the year of the second half of the year, the national Economic Person Federation ranked in the first half of the outlook for economic growth with the sales of the top 1,000 in sales. In the second half of this year, it will only increase by 0.5%over the same period last year.

South Korean companies, which are expected to decline in exports, said that their important factors are the decline in export competitiveness caused by the rise in raw material prices (41.2%), the bottleneck (21.9%) caused by the skyrocketing and air transportation costs, and the deterioration of the economic conditions of the main importing countries. (21.1%), etc. Economists warn that long -term trade deficit may bring long -term economic recession.

"South Korea's economy has been in a low-growth stage for a long time, so it is not tough." Kim Sang-Bong, a professor of economics at Seoul University, said, "In order to overcome the current crisis, we should accelerate the reform of the industrial structure.

For many industrial countries such as Germany and South Korea, trade exports are one of its important economic engines. The rise in the prices of energy and commodities and raw materials will further lead to rising costs and prices of export goods, increasing the increase in trade deficit. As the German Industry and Commerce Association's foreign trade director Volker Treier analyzed the New York Times, the cost of exporting overseas in German commodities continued to rise. "Exit downturn has begun, and exporters have become weaker and weaker for international customers."

Some experts have analyzed that there is another important reason for export -type countries to present a general deficit. It is a significant appreciation of the US dollar in the near future, so many countries have depreciated. Although the depreciation of the currency seems to be favorable for export, under the surge in prices such as food, energy and manufacturing, the currency depreciation will increase the cost of imports and affect the price of export products. Exit downturn.

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