Red Star Observation ｜ The price of pork rose 2.9%in June!Will pork prices return to reasonable space in the second half of the year?

On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics recently announced the consumer price data of residents in June. Statistics show that the consumer price (CPI) nationwide in June increased by 2.5%year -on -year. Among them, food prices rose 2.9%.

▲ Picture according to the National Bureau of Statistics

Since February of this year, the CPI index has been on the orbit as a whole. Especially since the price of pigs bottomed out at the end of April, many people have felt "vegetable stress". Statistics show that the price of pork in June decreased by 6.0%year -on -year, but rose 2.9%month -on -month.

Why can pork prices "move and move the whole body"? How will pork prices change in the second half of the year? Wang Zuli, an associate researcher at the Agricultural Economy and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and Professor Li Guoxiang, a rural development researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believed in an interview with Red Star Journalists that in the near future, pork prices may fall in a stage. From the perspective of the overall trend, especially with pork gradually entering the peak sales season, the price in the second half of the year will basically remain at the existing level.

Food prices in June decreased by 1.6%month -on -month, up 2.9%year -on -year

National Bureau of Statistics: Logistics improves, increased supply, CPI operation is generally stable

"In June, the overall situation of the prevention and control of the epidemic in my country is stable, the supply of important people's livelihood products is sufficient, and the overall consumer price operation of residents is stable." Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out when interpreting the June CPI data.

From a month -on -month perspective, the CPI in June changed from 0.2%last month to flat. Among them, the food price related to the people's vegetable baskets fell by 1.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from May, which affects the decrease of CPI by about 0.30 percentage points.

Food prices have fallen, who has the most driving force? Red Star News reporters combed the above data and found that the prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits in June fell 9.2%and 4.5%respectively, which is the two main forces that promoted the decline in food prices in the month. Secondly, the price of eggs decreased by 4.3%, and aquatic products decreased by 1.6%, which also provided a boost for food prices.

In Dong Lijuan's view, the price of food in June was lower than last month, mainly due to factors such as increasing supply, improvement of logistics, and decreased demand for stocking.

However, although food prices have declined as a whole, the price of pork is "rising against the trend", and the price rises by 2.9%month -on -month, affecting the CPI rose by about 0.04 percentage points. In this regard, Dong Lijuan's analysis pointed out that this is mainly affected by factors such as some farmers' pressure fences, stable epidemic, and increased consumer demand.

In addition, from the year -on -year data, the June CPI index rose 2.5%year -on -year. Among them, food prices rose 2.9%. So, what factors have pushed for the push of food prices in June compared with the same period last year?

According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the price of fresh fruits rose by 19.0%, the price of eggs rose 6.5%, the price of fresh vegetables rose 3.7%, and the price of food rose 3.2%. effect.

Why is the price of "pork" so much attention?

Expert: Pork price fluctuations directly affect national CPI and macro fiscal policies

Why does the fluctuation of pork prices always receive close attention to society? What will the ups and downs of a pound of pork on the price of pork on social and economic life?

In an interview with the Red Star Journalist, Wang Zuli, an associate researcher at the Agricultural Economy and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural, pointed out that pork as the main meat consumption variety of Chinese people has long occupied more than 60%in the entire meat consumption structure. Therefore, the price fluctuation of pork is not only closely related to the lives of the people, but also directly affects the adjustment of national CPI and macro fiscal policies.

The price of pork is too high and too low, and it is not an ideal state. Wang Zuli analyzed that if the price is too high, the most direct thing is that ordinary people cannot afford meat, the quality of life decreases, and it is even worse for low -income groups; but if the price is too low, it will cause the pig farmers to lose serious losses, so choose qiut the market.

"The low price is forced to retreat farmers, which may bring a new round of pork prices soaring. Therefore, it is not good to be too high and low, and it is best to keep it stable." Wang Zuli said.

In addition, the secretary -general of the Guangxi Bama Xiang Pig Association also said in an interview with Red Star Journalists that the current price is a reward for people who are still in the pork market. We may finally survive the trough when the supply is greater than seeking. "

With his continuous observation of the pork market in recent years, the financial report of large pork supply manufacturers is still losing money. The price increase can only be regarded as a reasonable return. In addition, there are still hidden dangers in swine fever in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions. Farmers are worried that they will win the bid and are still cautiously controlling the production capacity and scale of farming. He defined this as a game of market pressure fences.

The price of pork fluctuates, and the farm has made a lot of money?

The person in charge of the farm: the price increase has not brought much benefits to farmers

Since the price of pork "to the bottom", the news that the price of "two brothers" has continued to rise is not uncommon.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, pork prices continued to rise in June, and the increase of 2.9%month -on -month. Although it fell 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, it was already at a high price of two months ago.

In addition, Red Star reporters checked the data center of China pig farming. Data on July 9 showed that the price of pigs (three yuan) across the country was 22.64 yuan per kilogram, which was closer to more than 11 yuan this year. Note. ▲ Picture according to China Pig

"The pork has indeed risen a lot, and it is expected to continue to rise." In an interview with Red Star Journalists, the newly issued pork salesperson said that as a merchant, he can obviously feel the pork prices rise, and think that in the future, he thinks about the future section of the future. There is still room for time to rise.

According to the price trend of white pork released by the official website of Xinfa, from the end of June to early July 2022, it was obviously apparent than the same period last year. The data shows that on July 1, the average price of white piglets in the Shinhama market was 25.25 yuan/kg; it rose 33.25%from 18.95 yuan/kg in the same period last month (June 1), which was 21.50 yuan/kg from the same period last year. Rising 17.44%. The weekly rose rose sharply.

However, the Red Star journalist learned when interviewing the four -seated farm in Longwantun in Beijing, and learned that the price of Beijing pigs was stable, and it is currently controlled at about 10.5 yuan per catty.

"It is not as exaggerated as online. Maybe it may rise a little today, but it has just reached about 10.8 yuan." The person in charge of the farm believes that the price increase has not brought much benefits to farmers. Even the current out of the outlet price has just earned the cost.

The above -mentioned farmers said that due to various factors such as the epidemic, the cost of pig farming in recent years has remained high. Many retail investors and small farms have been forced to withdraw from the market, and large groups have continued to reduce the column. "Now it can only be regarded as a non -reasonable low price to return to normal. After all, no one is willing to raise it if the price does not increase.

When it comes to recent irrational behaviors such as blind sales of the pig market, the person in charge of the farm believes that similar situations are mainly concentrated in large farms, and the scale of small enterprises has no conditional fence at all. "When it comes to time, you have to sell it. If you do n’t sell it, you will have no place to breed new hair pigs.

In the same question, the reporter also consulted the Yixin farm located in Nanpi Town, Hebei Province. The factory belongs to medium -sized manufacturers. The price of the outlets currently rose to 12 yuan per catty, and the cost is flat near 8 yuan per catty.

The person in charge of the Yixin farm revealed to the Red Star journalist that the phenomenon of selling the fence has always existed, and more and more situations will be increased as the market rises. But even so, considerable profit margins are still small. Affected by the epidemic, the cost of corn in breeding and feed has nearly one -third more than the original. Coupled with the larger pork imports in recent years, it has occupied a part of the mainland market.

According to the person in charge, in the Hebei area, the supply price of the current slaughterhouse to the market is around 16 yuan per catty, which is about 4 yuan more expensive than the price of pigs.

Why does the price of pork rise? Will it continue to rise?

Step into a new round of "pig cycle" upward road, secondary fertilizer farmers purchase a large number of purchases

Regarding the current price of pork fluctuations, Wang Zuli believes that "rising prices are normal, and the current price is basically reasonable.

So, why does the price of pork suddenly increase? According to the official website of Xinfa, "the rise in prices, in addition to the factors of rising pork prices, also has the factors of the slaughter plant's pressure." It is the result of the at the same time of the farm and the slaughter plant.

As far as the farm is concerned, after a long time of loss, the opportunity to turn losses has finally occurred. The farm has a sales mentality, and there is a pressure -guaranteed price. The supply of supply has been tight, and the price of pigs has risen.

In terms of slaughtering factories, ensuring that the daily listing volume is in a tight balance, it can stabilize the price that has been rushed to the price, the supply is tight, and the space for rising prices can be reserved, so that the recent price is basically in a state of continuous rise.

When evaluating the latest round of pork prices rising, Wang Zuli mentioned that according to the "pig cycle" of four years, the market was at the turnover point of the previous period, so pig prices appeared. At the same time, due to the seasons, it is fixed in the off -season of pork in my country each year in March and April. It is also normal for low prices and losses. The current price increase means that the market has passed the bottom, and it has entered a new round of "pig cycle".

Professor Li Guoxiang, a rural development researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that the fundamental reason behind the rise of pig prices is the improvement of supply and demand relationship. The reasonable side is to make pig farmers make a profit from the long -term loss. But the unreasonable side is that many people mistakenly estimate the situation and exaggerate the ability to regulate the production of pig production in our country. Coupled with the people in the society for hype, this will exacerbate price fluctuations.

Wang Zuli also mentioned that at the beginning of a new round of "pig cycle", farmers generally felt that prices would continue to rise, so a large number of pressure fences cherished for sale, resulting in a reduction in supply. "The more you do n’t sell the price, the more you go, the more you do n’t sell, and gradually form a vicious circle." He also mentioned that many farmers who do secondary fattenings will purchase a large number of standard weight pigs for breeding at this moment. This also increases the needs of standard weight commercial households, causing unbalance of supply and demand.

Can pork prices return to "rational" in the second half of the year?

In the second half of the year, the supply of pork markets is guaranteed. Recently, in the recent period, it may be possible that in the face of the price of pork that continues to rise, the National Development and Reform Commission has recently introduced policy intervention many times.

On July 4, the National Development and Reform Commission held a special meeting of the pig market for stability. At the meeting, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission requested large -scale breeding enterprises to take the lead in maintaining the rhythm of the normal column, and the improvisation of fertilization of fertilizer and pigs. They do not blindly press the fence. It reminds companies not to hoard the strange and coaxing prices, and to pass the price increase.

On July 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission revealed that in response to the recent irrational behavior such as blind selling fences in the pig market, it was studying the launch of the launch of the central pork reserves, and instructed the localities to jointly launch the reserves in a timely manner to form a joint control force to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively.

On July 6, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that its Price Division and the Dalian Commodity Exchange will cooperate closely to investigate abnormal transactions in a timely manner, strengthen penetrating supervision, and severely crack down on illegal fabrication and fabricating price increase information, hoarding, coaxing prices, and malicious capital speculation. In violation of regulations, we will effectively ensure the smooth operation of the pig market.

For the changes in pork prices in the next few months, Li Guoxiang and Wang Zuli also judged that in the near future, there will be a period of time fall. The above two experts point out that in terms of overall trend, especially with pork gradually entering the peak sales season, the price in the second half of the year will basically remain at the existing level. On holidays, especially before and after the Spring Festival, the situation of more than 30 yuan per catty may appear again.

Earlier, Meng Wei, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, also introduced at the press conference that the current pig production capacity is reasonable and plentiful. At the end of April, the number of sows in the country was 41.77 million. The possibility of a sharp rise in the swine fever period is not high. It is expected that the price of pig food will run in the overall reasonable range.

At the same time, Zhou Lin, an associate researcher at the Food and Nutrition Development Research Institute of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, also made it clear that the amount of sows can survive in the fourth quarter of last year than the green and reasonable areas of the regulation of pig production capacity. From January to May this year, the nationwide sows The amount of depository has continued in green and reasonable areas, indicating that the pork market supply in the second half of this year and next year is guaranteed.

Red Star reporter Yang Yuqi Wu Yang intern Zhang Xiaoshang Beijing reported Beijing

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