Strong non -agricultural employment data is temporarily relieved of recession, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike 75 base point is expected to rise

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter Li Yinong Shanghai reported strong non -agricultural data that made the market heating up the Fed's interest rate hike.

On July 8th local time, the U.S. Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the June non -agricultural report. Data show that after the June quarterly, the non -agricultural employment population was added 372,000, which was far higher than the market expectations of 250,000, which continued the strong momentum of employment growth this year; Maintaining near the 50 -year low, in line with expectations.

After the non -agricultural data was announced, the market fluctuated slightly. As of the closing of July 8th, the three major US stock indexes permitted, the Dow fell 0.15%; the S & P 500 index fell 0.08%; the NANAN Index rose 0.12%. The US debt yields have risen collectively. The yield of 2 -year US bonds was up to 3.117%, and the 10 -year US debt yields increased to 3.085%.

Economists and analysts generally pointed out that strong non -agricultural data has strengthened the Fed's expectations of interest rate hikes. Some people believe that the "hot" labor market shows that the fierce economic recession has not yet arrived. This undoubtedly provides a larger operating space for the Fed's tightening policy, allowing it to continue to radical interest rate hikes to control inflation.

Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomicist at Everbright Securities, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that non -agricultural reports showed that the US employment market continued to maintain toughness in June. Looking forward, under the strong situation of new non -agricultural maintenance, it is expected that the Fed will have a big step and rapid interest rate hike rhythm.

Strong non -agricultural temporary decline?

The strong performance of the employment market beyond expectations seems to have alleviated concerns about the decline of the US economy to a certain extent.

After the data was announced, CECILIA ROUSE, chairman of the White House Economic Consultant Committee, said in an interview with the media that despite challenges and anti -winds, the labor market in the United States remains strong. This shows that even in the face of the Federal Reserve and inflation, and the impact of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, there are still some space in the US economy to deal with challenges.

Andrew Hunter, a senior economist of Capital Economics, also said that this is a strong refutation to the US economy's view of decline, let alone the economy has fallen into decline.

PNC Financial Services Group chief economist Gus Fauchr said in the report that "strong employment growth clearly shows that the US economy is far from recession in the middle of 2022."

The White House was obviously satisfied with the report. After the data was announced, the US White House adviser Sperling said that the latest employment data in the United States is strong and "reassuring."

US President Biden pointed out in a statement that the employment report on Friday shows that the private sector has restored all jobs lost during the epidemic and added employment on this basis. Biden said, "This is the fastest and strongest employment recovery in American history." And attributed this situation to its own economic plan and is playing a role- "Without my government to take measures last year to respond to the new crown, The impact brought by the epidemic, and the economy returns to the right track through the US rescue plan, which will not happen. "

On the whole, in a series of data released recently, the labor market is the biggest "highlight" and "support" of the US economy.

Hu Yifan, the investment director of the Asia -Pacific region and the macroeconomic director of the Asia -Pacific region, responded to the related issues raised by the 21st Century Business Herald at the online media meeting held by the online media meeting recently that the current US labor market still shows a good situation; If there is a reversal one day, it may be a heavy pressure for the economy.

Gao Ruidong reminded that from the perspective of sub -item data, the growth rate of wages fell slightly, but still maintained a high level; the labor participation rate was slow, and the business rate maintained at a level of 3.6%for four consecutive months, showing that insufficient labor supply and employment demand weakened weakened. Essence The employment supply and demand gap may cause the salary to continue to rise, pushing the salary-price spiral risk. Therefore, follow-up of salary-price spiral exacerbation of inflation is still needed.

The market bet on the Federal Reserve in July 75 basis points

From the market response, the non -agricultural data in June comprehensively strengthened the Fed's expectations of interest rate hikes. According to the Chicago Commodity Exchange Fedwatch, the market is currently expected to continue to raise a significant rate of 75 basis points in July of 92.4%, and the probability of 100 basis points in interest rate hikes reached 7.6%.

Michael Schumacher, director of interest rate strategy in Wells Fargo, said, "Overall, employment growth is very strong, which makes the possibility of 75 basis points in July rate hikes is almost a foregone conclusion."

Aditha Bhave, a senior economist at the United States, also believes that with the strong growth of employment, the Federal Reserve raised interest rate hike 75 base points in July "very high".

Hu Yifan previously explained to reporters that as one of the advanced indicators of US economic growth, the US labor market is the "confidence" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. In the case of high inflation and the downturn and fluctuations of multiple data, the Federal Reserve can still be radical to raise interest rates because the labor market has performed well.

Gargi Chaudhuri, head of the Ishares Investment Strategy of Belle, also pointed out that the June employment report will make the Fed feel more "comfortable" when making a resolution to continue to raise interest rates, because the Federal Reserve has performed well in the task of employment goals.For a long time, maintaining price stability and ensuring employment to maximize employment is the "dual mission" of the Federal Reserve, and the Fed's policy has been seeking a balance between "inflation" and "unemployment rate".In the case of strong performance in the employment market, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply at the July interest rate interest meeting to fight inflation. Is there really no "worries"?

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