Vice Chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council: The current first -level market is facing difficulties, but it is a rare opportunity for long -term capital to increase layout.

At the "2022 Caixin Summer Summit" held on July 9, Chen Wenhui, vice chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council, pointed out that the current first -level market is facing difficulties, but it is a rare for long -term capital to increase the layout. opportunity.

▲ Chen Wenhui, vice chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council, speak online

Views 1:

Regardless of the reconstruction of the global industrial chain or the independent innovation of technology, long -term capital support needs

From the new crown epidemic, Sino -US relations to the Russian -Ukraine conflict, Chen Wenhui analyzed two deep -seated reasons that caused these uncertain factors. He believes that first, since the industrial revolution, social material wealth has grown rapidly. It is accompanied by human beings' excessive obedience to nature, and the contradiction between human and nature has been continuously intensified. Improve production efficiency, but this also weakened the government's ability to intervene in interest re -distribution. With the continuous expansion of the gap between the rich and the poor, it has caused the society to tear, and the contradictions are shifted outward, causing international conflicts.

Chen Wenhui believes that these two contradictions have no possibility in the short term, so there are still a large number of uncontrollable factors in the future, and the incident of gray rhinos and black swan may become more and more frequent. He pointed out that the relationship between gray rhinos and black swan must be dialectically described, and discusses the three main points of preventing the risks of black swans and gray rhinos between China and the United States.

Talking about how my country's long -term capital cope with uncertainty, Chen Wenhui said: "Whether it is the reconstruction of the global industrial chain or independent technology innovation, it requires the support of long -term capital, but the current long -term capital market in China is not optimistic."

Chen Wenhui said that before, the US dollar fund was the main force of supporting Chinese private scientific and technological innovation enterprises, but in the past two years, due to the influence of Sino -US relations and regulatory policies, a large number of investors turned into a wait -and -see attitude. Relevant data shows that the US dollar fund raised in the first quarter of this year has reached a new low in the past five years. Recently, Chen Wenhui exchanged with some well -known domestic fund managers. Most managers said that it was difficult to raise US dollars. U.S. investors basically suspended financing of Chinese funds.

From the perspective of the RMB market, the situation is not optimistic. According to Qingke data, the equity investment fund raised 409.2 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, a 42%decrease from the 4th quarter of 2021. Chen Wenhui pointed out that if the data estimated from April to May this year, the second quarter continued to decrease by 63%compared to the first quarter. "Considering that 90%of these funds are raised by the top 10%of the head managers, other institutions have almost no money to account. The market's desire for long -term capital has reached an unprecedented level."

The difficulty of fundraising and concerns about uncertainty also affects investment in the first -level market. According to Qingke data, the number and amount of equity investment in the first quarter of 2022 decreased by 27.5%and 47.1%year -on -year, respectively.

Chen Wenhui said that many head funds in his interview survey have also slowed down the investment rhythm. The reduction of investment fund funds plus the decline in the secondary market, and the first -level market valuation center has significantly reduced. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic in the first half of this year, the performance of many companies has also fallen sharply, and the valuation level of first -level market projects has been greatly adjusted.

"I learned from some private equity fund managers that 20%of projects on the market can accept lower price financing than the previous round. Even star projects have decreased from 50%than the previous round. By 10%~ 20%, even popular tracks such as semiconductor and new energy, the valuation of excellent companies is about 30%compared with previous expectations. As for waist projects, the valuation of this year's financing can only reach the same project last year. Half, and the projects below the waist are basically not funded. "Chen Wenhui said.

Views 2:

The difficulty of the current first -level market is a rare opportunity for long -term capital to increase layout

Chen Wenhui pointed out that difficulties are opportunities. "State development requires long -term capital. As long as the basic logic of China's long -term development is unchanged, and firmly depends on China’ s faith, then the difficulties of the current first -level market are a rare opportunity for long -term capital to increase the layout. "

He gave four reasons.

First, the size of the US dollar funds has declined and its advantages are weakened. RMB investors occupy a greater advantage in acquiring projects.

Second, project financing valuation is generally low, and it is expected to increase the expected investment rate of investment.

Third, the global industrial chain heavy structure will generate a large number of investment opportunities, and against globalization will become a general trend in the next 10 years. All major economies will establish a local industrial chain to change the existing international division of labor. Chinese companies must go out to establish localized production and global management capabilities. Long -term capital supports Chinese enterprises to go to sea and participating in the new global industrial chain competition, which can not only improve the capital strength of the enterprise, but also generate high investment income.

Fourth, the high -quality economic development has set off a tide of mergers and acquisitions. In the process of China's economy to high -quality development and transformation, many growing companies will be eliminated by the market. Talent enterprises can quickly increase market share through mergers and acquisitions, consolidate industry positions, long -term capital to provide mergers and acquisitions funds for leading enterprises, help the economy to improve quality quality improvement, quality improvement of the economy to improve quality quality. Increasing efficiency can also get good returns.

While seizing the opportunity, we must also prevent risks. Chen Wenhui said that as long as long -term capital is practiced in responsibility and actively stands on the generosity of social change, she can avoid the gray rhinos and black swans. Investment, you need to pay special attention to three points.

First of all, it is necessary to resonate with the national strategy to prevent the risks of industrial regulation, focusing on dual -carbon and hard technology, supporting the replacement of national production of the industrial chain, and vigorously deploying strategic emerging industries such as high -end manufacturing and life and health.Secondly, it is to correctly understand and support common prosperity and prevent policy risks.At present, my country's capital elements account for about 20%of the initial distribution, which is significantly high. The decline in the proportion of capital distribution is the general trend of economic development and the essential requirement of socialism.

The third is to strengthen self -discipline and prevent legal risks.Our regulatory system is not sound, and capital still has room for arbitrage in capital. However, with the completeness of the legal system construction, the behavior of people and national interests will be severely punished. Therefore, it is particularly important to see the general trend and strengthen self -discipline.

Red Star reporter Hu Yiwen intern Zhang Xin Beijing reported

Edit Tan Wangyu

- END -