Ping An Securities Zhongzheng Sheng, etc.: The probability of CPI in the second half of the year is more likely to break the "3"

Zhongxin Jingwei, July 9th. According to data on the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, CPI rose 2.5%year -on -year, which was flat month -on -month. The year -on -year increase in CPI has reached a new high since August 2020.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, explained that in June, the CPI increased from year -on -year, and was slightly stronger than the season. There are three reasons behind: 1) In the food points of food, the prices of pork and edible oil continue to rise. 2) Energy -related scores continue to rise, which has a strong role in CPI, and has not yet reflected the impact of recent international oil prices. 3) The service price performance is stronger than seasonality, and the core CPI increases slightly more than seasonal. The inhibitory effect of the epidemic prevention and control on the demand for residents' service consumption has weakened, and the recovery of offline service prices has risen. However, with the relaxation of the epidemic control, the improvement of logistics and the decrease in demand for residents' stocks, and the increase in seasonal supply of related products, the prices of fruits, vegetables, eggs and aquatic products, and beef and mutton are faster, which is the main factor of CPI.

The year -on -year growth rate of PPI continued to fall, and the month -on -month was flat. Zhong Zhengsheng's team believes that the branch industry is flat, and the PPI is flat. The dragging factor is that domestic demand pricing products and overseas non -non -ferrous metal prices are adjusted, and the supporting factor is the continuation of the price increase of energy -related industrial chains.

Specifically, the factor of drag is: First, under the "weak reality", the price of black metal and non -metal minerals priced at domestic demand is faster. The second is that the global manufacturing industry has fallen, the "recession trading" of overseas markets has intensified, and the price of non -ferrous metals in international pricing has fallen sharply. The supporting factor is that: First, the international oil prices are high, and the price increase of the petrochemical industry chain continues. Second, the price of coal is high. The peak of domestic electricity consumption is coming and the domestic re -production is advanced, and the demand for coal has increased. Under the "energy shortage" overseas, the price of power coal in June further rose. However, the Development and Reform Commission's supplies of stable and price measures continued to advance, and the rise in domestic coal prices was weaker than overseas.

Zhong Zhengsheng's team believes that in the second half of the year, the domestic inflation situation uncertainty still exists, especially CPI. The year -on -year growth center of the CPI may rise significantly, and the probability of breaking the "3" in a single month will be a greater probability, which will be the main focus of domestic inflation. In addition to the risk of risk of crude oil prices, the CPI in the second half of the year is also disturbed by two aspects: First, if the service consumer demand is further restored, the PPI continues to be transmitted to the CPI, and the core CPI has upward risk. The second is that in order to be able to survive the sow, the supply and demand of pigs in the second half of the year will usher in marginal improvement, and there will be some upward pressure on pork prices.

In terms of PPI, the tail -tailed factor will still drive the year -on -year growth rate, but there is uncertainty in changes in the new price increase factors: First, the price of commodities pricing overseas have recently been out of the market. It can boost PPI growth downward. The second is that the international energy supply and demand gap still exists. If the overseas central bank's tight currency fails to effectively suppress demand, the price is still risky. Third, if the domestic infrastructure "steady growth" in the second half of the year is actively developing, the demand for real estate investment will be restored, and black goods may have pressure on price increases. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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