What is the general follow -up trend of the general price operation in June

China Business Daily (Reporter Peng Tingting) The National Bureau of Statistics released data on July 9. In June, the National Resident Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5%year -on -year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; PPI) increased by 6.1%year -on -year, and the increase fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; it rose by 0.1%from the previous month to the same.

Regarding the trend in the second half of the year, interviewed experts analyzed that pig food resonance upward, service demand recovery, and PPI -to -CPI -conducting enhancement will be supported by the CPI center. It is expected that CPI or "3" will be broken around September. Affected by the base of last year and the weakened momentum of global commodity prices, it will continue to maintain a downward trend.

Fresh vegetables and fresh fruits Food prices fall down

"In June, the overall situation of the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic in my country is stable, the supply of important people's livelihood products is sufficient, and the overall consumer price operation of residents is stable."

Data show that in June, food prices rose 2.9%year -on -year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In food, the price of food, edible vegetable oil, eggs and fresh vegetables rose between 3.2%and 6.6%. The price of fresh fruit rose 19%, and the price of pork decreased by 6%. From a month -on -month perspective, in June, the CPI decreased from 0.2%last month to flat. Among them, food prices decreased by 1.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with the China Business Daily reporter that food prices fell down and supported pork prices. In June, CPI foods decreased by 1%month -on -month, in line with early summer characteristics. Affected by the sunny weather and seasonal factors, the supply of vegetables and fruits is abundant. The prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits fell 9.2%and 4.5%, respectively, and became an important thrust for food prices.

Since the price of pork is bottomed in April, the market rising expectations are expected to be further strong. Wen Bin believes that the phenomenon of the phenomenon of the breeding end is reproduced, and the pigs' futures have repeatedly hit a new high. In June, pork prices rose 2.9%month -on -month, narrowed to 6%year -on -year increase, and the year -on -year increase in food prices will soon turn to contribute.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on July 8th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 28.98 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4%over the previous day, and rose 18%compared to 24.55 yuan/kg on July 1. The price of pigs this week is also obvious. According to the data of China Pig Raising Network, on July 8, the average price of pigs (three yuan) was 22.31 yuan/kg, which rose 8.67%compared with 20.53 yuan/kg on July 1.

However, recently, the National Development and Reform Commission reminds relevant enterprises to maintain the rhythm of normal columns and avoid blind pressure fences. And instruct the local area to jointly put the reserves in a timely manner to form a joint force to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively. "In the short term, the driving force for pork prices will fall, and the rise in food prices will still be mild." Wen Bin said.

According to estimates, in June, the core CPI that deducted food and energy prices rose by 1%year -on -year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of Caixin Research Institute, analyzed the reporter of China Business Daily, "In terms of non -food, oil prices rising and service recovery have caused non -food prices to rise by 0.4 percentage points, but the core CPI has only risen slightly, and residents' consumption demand is still weak."

Supply improvement promotion PPI decline year -on -year

Dong Lijuan said that in June, the resumption of production and re -production continued to advance, and the supply chain of key industrial chains gradually opened up and stable, and the effect of maintaining the price of stable price continued to appear. Industrial producers' ex -factory prices rose from the previous month to flat, and the year -on -year increase continued to fall.

From a year -on -year perspective, PPI rose 6.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, mainly the effect of the higher base of last year. According to estimates, in the year -on -year increase of PPIs in 6.1%in June, the impact of the tail tail of the price change last year was about 3.8 percentage points, and the new price increase was about 2.3 percentage points.

From a month -on -month perspective, PPI rose from 0.1%last month to flat. The changes in international crude oil prices have driven the price of related industries in China, of which the price of oil and natural gas mining industry rose 7.0%. The demand for coal preparation for "welcoming the peak" has increased, and the price of coal mining and washing industry has increased by 0.8%. Affected by factors such as slow investment growth, the demand for steel and cement industries is relatively weak. Black metal smelting and pressure -delay industrial prices decreased by 3.1%, and the price of non -metal mineral products fell by 1.5%.

"The price of living information has continued to rise, and the variety of prices has spread further. At the same time, at the industry level, the price of the crude oil industry chain, food processing industry, textiles and clothing and other industries have risen, showing that PPI has strong input pressure." Wu Chaoming to reporters to reporters express.

At present, coal is still an important "cockpit stone" of national energy security. "Taking the coal as the" anchor "to do a good job of energy guarantee and stabilize the price." Meng Wei, deputy director and spokesman of the Political Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that by improving measures such as coal production, storage and sales system, and strengthening market expectations, coal The price runs in a reasonable range, stabilizes the electricity price by stabilizing the price of coal, and then stabilizes the overall cost.

In addition, due to the high PPI base, the difference between the scissors of PPI and CPI in June was narrowed by 0.7 percentage points to 3.6 % compared with the previous month, and it narrowed for 8 consecutive months. "The difference between PPI and CPI scissors reflects the changes in the profit margin of industrial enterprises to a certain extent." Wu Chaoming said, "The expansion of PPI and CPI scissors usually means the continuous restoration of corporate profits and economic momentum. , Mainly driven by upstream raw materials price increases, the structural characteristics are significant, not comprehensive price increases. Under the condition of weak demand, the ability to transfer costs in middle and downstream industries is still weak, resulting in the upstream raw materials rise to middle and lower reaches profit The crowded role is strong, and then the investment of the investment and expansion of the investment in the middle and lower reaches. "The price is smooth and a solid foundation

What is the trend of prices in the next stage? Wu Chaoming believes that the resonance of pig food, the recovery of service demand, and the enhancement of the PPI -to -CPI transmission will all be supported by the CPI center. It is expected that CPI around September or breaks the "3". The annual CPI increased by about 2.3%, and the overall mild.

Wen Bin believes that the CPI is expected to rise moderately in the second half of the year, and the probability of breaking 3%in some month (September and December) is more likely, but the average level of the year will still be controlled within the policy goals. At the same time, due to the influence of the base of last year and the weakening of the rising kinetic energy of the global commodity, PPI will continue to continue to fall.

To maintain economic operation in a reasonable range, we must play a supporting role in stable prices. From the central government to the local government, various departments dedicated to guarding the people's "rice bags", "vegetable baskets", "oil tanks" ... continue to play policy portfolios, grasp implementation, see action, and lay a solid foundation for the smooth operation of prices.

Recently, the three departments and other departments of the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice to clearly support coal cleaning and efficient use of special re -loan quotas to increase by 100 billion yuan, which is specially used in areas related to coal development and enhancement of coal reserves. After the increase of 100 billion yuan in this time, the total amount of special re -loan of coal cleaning and efficient use reached 300 billion yuan, which will help further release advanced coal production capacity, ensure the safe and stable supply of energy, and support the stable economy.

The cost of logistics is also an important factor in pushing the price. All parties strive to promote the smooth work of logistics and protection, reduce the cost of comprehensive freight, and reduce the operating pressure of logistics enterprises and individual drivers. For example, for logistics drivers and logistics enterprises affected by the epidemic, the Ministry of Transport will actively promote the implementation of relevant policies with the financial tax, finance, and social security departments, especially the value -added tax refund, levy small -scale taxpayers VAT, and social security for slow payment. Tolls, transportation and logistics special re -loans, truck loans extended the principal and interest, and other relief policies, and strive to reduce the operating pressure of logistics enterprises and individual drivers.

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