"Broken arm" self -rescue, "cliff -type" decline: Can real estate still hold the market?

"Never consider real estate companies in the future!" Recently, a giant from a real estate field has abandoned high -paying executives, so he said categorically.

Not long ago, the list of top 100 real estate sales in the first half of 2022 was announced. Mines, layoffs, self -rescue .... In the past year, the real estate industry has been turbulent, but it is reflected in the data more specific and shocking.

Picture source: Kerry Research Center

According to the list of the list, the full caliber of the top 200 companies in the first half of 2022 was 3803.18 billion yuan. This data was 7824.98 billion yuan in 2021, a year -on -year decrease of 40.218 billion yuan. The former giant Evergrande, the full caliber of the first half of 2021 was 356.16 billion yuan, and only 23.36 billion yuan in the first half of this year, only 6.59%of the same period last year. Sunac also decreased from 320.8 billion yuan last year to 112.7 billion yuan this year, a reduction of nearly two -thirds.

On the whole, most real estate companies' performance goals in 2022 in the first half of the year were less than 40%, and nearly half of the enterprises were even less than 30%. The entire real estate industry was still in the trough period.

Live! The words of this sentence of Vanke's chairman Yu Liang shouted in 2018, and now it seems extraordinarily real, and it has become the voice of all real estate people. However, although real estate developers have worked hard to save themselves, they have always been difficult to warm up because of severe cold. Regardless of assumption: If one day, the real estate building is really fond. What kind of situation will this industry even face it?

"Broken arm" self -rescue; "cliff -like" decline

A few months ago, an executive of Evergrande finally chose to return to the old bank. Such results have been expected. In mid -August 2020, the outside world mistakenly believed that when Evergrande was like the sky, Xu Jiayin had left a message on WeChat to strictly control the cost and greatly reduce the budget.

In fact, since the Evergrande Real Estate Thunderstorm in 2021, the most direct impression of the entire real estate industry has turned sharply.

In 2021, Evergrande was suspended due to business tickets and multiple projects across the country. Then, due to debt problems, multiple companies were sue to court.

Picture source: Evergrande Group official website

How big is Evergrande's debt? According to the financial report data: Evergrande's total assets are 2377.6 billion yuan, total liabilities are 1966.5 billion yuan, and interest liabilities are 571.775 billion yuan. What is the concept of up to 2 trillion liabilities? You know, in the whole year of 2021, the total economic volume of the province of Hainan Island was more than 500 billion yuan.

However, the turmoil of the real estate industry is far more than that. In addition to Evergrande Real Estate, the mines also include Sunshine City Real Estate, Fantastic Real Estate, Xinli Real Estate, Taihe Real Estate, Xiexin Real Estate, Huaxia Happiness, etc. It's growing.

Real estate companies caught in debt mud urgently need huge cash flow to rescue themselves.

In order to rescue himself, on October 18, 2021, Xu Jiayin's domestic shares in Shengjing Bank fell from 49.59%to 19.85%, and Shengjing Financial Holdings, a state -owned assets controlled by Shenyang, will surpass Evergrande to become the largest shareholder of Shengjing Bank. According to the announcement of Shengjing Bank, Evergrande's transfer of Shengjing Bank's equity is divided into two strokes. Through these two transactions, the Xu family seal was 11 billion yuan.

In addition, on September 1 last year, the eight vice presidents of Evergrande Group led the eight major insurance intersection special working groups and the chairman of the provincial companies to lead the team members and project generals. Xu Jiayin said, "We must go all out to resume work and keep the property in order to resume sales, in order to restore normal operations, and return all aspects of arrears."

Not only Evergrande, almost all real estate companies on the edge of the cliff are working hard to save themselves.

The 2021 interim report showed that Sunac China's liabilities were nearly 1 trillion yuan, of which more than 300 billion yuan in interest liabilities.

In the first half of this year, Sunac China issued an announcement saying that the company's interest rates expired in April have a total of $ 105 million, which cannot be repaid for interest within the relevant width period.

In order to rescue themselves, as early as November 1, 2021, Sunac sold two projects in Hangzhou to Binjiang Group for a price of 1.673 billion yuan; in December, Sunac will bring the office building of Shanghai Hongqiao Business District at a price of 2.68 billion yuan. The three projects of the hotel and office buildings in Hangzhou were sold; in January 2022, Sunac will transfer 40%of the second phase of Kunming Rongchuangwen Travel City to Hua Fa, with a transfer price of 1.4 billion yuan.

Aduo Town

On March 25 this year, Sunac Real Estate Group issued an announcement on the Shanghai Stock Exchange saying that it was impossible to raise 4 billion bonds expired on April 1 on April 1. , Also put assets such as A Duo Town out of the credit to increase credit, and it was successful for 18 months. It is understood that when he learned that "A Duo Town was mortgaged", an employee who had worked in Sunac for many years was amazed: "High -quality assets have been placed on the card table. What is this concept?!" This cultural tourism project located in Qingdao, after a long polishing, just opened in late September 2021.

Coincidentally, Xu Jiayin has also started to sell luxury homes for self -help. On March 29 this year, according to the China Fund, Xu Jiayin was sold for 40 % off 980 square meters of property in Shenzhen Bay No. 1, with a original price of 400 million yuan, which was reduced to 280 million yuan for debt reduction, and fell directly 120 million yuan.

"Sale" has become a "life -saving straw" for the survival of housing companies.

What consequences will "industry volcanic ash" bring?

The road of "self -help" in housing companies is difficult, and during the period, they will experience the incident of "worsening". At the end of 2021, a decision of administrative penalty decision on the Comprehensive Administrative and Law Enforcement Bureau of Lizhou City, Hainan Province stated that: Lizhou Xinheng Tourism Development Co., Ltd. is located on the third (6th) project of Haihua Island, Baimajing Town, Lizhou City. A total of 39 buildings have been built, and the planning permit obtained from illegal has been revoked and the project has violated relevant regulations. According to regulations, the company was ordered to demolish the above -mentioned illegal buildings by themselves within 10 days.

Picture source: Haihua Island official website

It is reported that the Haihua Island project is a major project in Hainan's investment and development in Hainan. Evergrande Haihua Island is located in the Gulf area of ​​Lazhou City, Hainan Province. The island is planned to reclaim an area of ​​about 8 square kilometers and a total investment of 160 billion yuan.

Although the demolition was changed after applying for administrative reconsideration in Evergrande, this decision also made Evergrande's self -rescue road more difficult.

Today, the crisis of real estate companies still has not dispersed. In order to save the market, there are many places.

For example, Henan took the lead in opening the "replacement of houses". Recently, the Jianye River houses in Shangqiu Minquan County, Henan Province launched a house purchase event of "2 yuan/catties, wheat change". The specific activities are: buyers can pay the first payment at a price of 2 yuan/jin. However, if there is a upper limit, wheat can reach up to 160,000 yuan.

Prior to this, Jianye City, Kaifeng County, Henan, has launched a "5 yuan/catties, garlic change" house purchase activity. The official publicity poster clearly stated that 860,000 kg of garlic was traded in 16 days.

What's more, selling houses is directly listed as KPI for community staff. Not long ago, a street office of the West Coast New District of Qingdao issued the "Notice on Promoting the purchase of new commercial houses to promote the purchase of new commercial housing". The notice clearly stated that the Sub -district Office should launch residents in the area to purchase new commercial houses, organize new commercial house group purchases, and at the end of June, each cooperative has completed no less than two online signing, and the work will be included in the 2022 work assessment.

The reason why this "inner roll" rescue the market is precisely because once the real estate industry collapses, the consequences are too large.

Some people talk about his experience of buying a house: In February 2021, his father spent a lifetime of money paying for a set of Hengda commodity houses he bought in his hometown in Anhui, and he also carried 30 years of mortgage. But with Evergrande mines, he received the news from the bank staff: the house may be bad. He and his father were in the fear of the house of the house, and could not live in the house.

After Evergrande's thunderstorm, the lawsuit in the country responded to it, making it difficult to worry. Even if the lawsuit won, Evergrande may not have money to pay. However, at that time, other banks had not received the loan application of Evergrande buyers. To this end, the father and son could only "self -rescue" lawsuits. At the end of the matter, the father and son successfully received the down payment of the house, but at the same time, not only Evergrande, as more and more real estate companies were thunderstorm, more and more home buyers were in a bad tail. Dilemma.

Real estate expert Cai Zhaoming once said that in the next three years, it is not just a bad tail building. There may be many rotten projects. A fitness card project at the door of the house may swallow people's membership fees to some cities. Public construction, especially some new development zones and high -tech parks, the greater the possibility of this rotten end.

Faced with such consequences, whether real estate companies can "self -rescue" success, and people who are related to the real estate industry!

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