Silicon supplies should not seek price innovation high, middle and downstream enterprises directly call "very injured"

9Jul

Our reporter Li Chunlian Yin Fengfeng, a trainee reporter He Wangjuan, recently, the news of the price of silicon material exceeding 300,000 yuan/ton has made the market uproar. Compared with 80,000 yuan/ton in early 2021, the price rose more than three times. According to the latest multi -crystalline silicon prices announced by the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association's Silicon Branch, the price range of domestic single -crystal reinstation this week is 288,000 yuan/ton to 300,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 291,600 yuan/ton. The price ring rose 1.85%month -on -month; the price range of the single crystal to the tightly material was 286,000 yuan/ton to 298,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 289,600 yuan/ton. The price increase of silicon materials continues to conduct pressure on downstream, driving the price of the entire photovoltaic industry chain such as silicon sheets and components. The skyrocketing price of photovoltaic components directly affects the progress of the investment and construction of photovoltaic projects. "The component price exceeds 2 yuan/watt. Seeing the possibility of a short -term decline in the trend, the pressure is too great." On July 7, the investment director of a large state -owned new energy investment enterprise said in an interview with the Securities Daily that Recently, the price of silicon material has continued to rise. Since the second quarter, the construction of many photovoltaic power stations in the industry has lagged lag or even suspended. Under the "dual carbon" goal, the amount of photovoltaic power generation is increasing. However, many industry insiders said in an interview with the Securities Daily that if the imbalance of the imbalance in all aspects of the photovoltaic industry chain continues to intensify, the construction speed of the terminal photovoltaic power plant may be affected. Relevant companies' performance in the first half of the year has increased. "At present, the prices of various silicon materials have set a historical highest price." Qu Fang, a Banglian Securities Investment Consultant, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the current increase in silicon materials is mainly due to the fact that the supply of enterprises suspended production and reduced production and reduced production. Essence In the third quarter, there were still companies with a shutdown plan to reduce production, which will continue to highly support the price of silicon materials. Facing the strong market demand, silicon wafers, battery and photovoltaic component manufacturers have expanded, but the growth of silicon materials has grown relatively slowly. Due to the expansion of the silicon wafer's expansion far beyond the expansion of the silicon material, the factors of the overlapping silicon material project construction cycle, the price of silicon material continues to operate high. According to the statistics of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch, in the first quarter of this year, the output of silicon materials in China was 159,000 tons, an increase of 28%year -on -year; and the output of domestic silicon wafers, batteries, and photovoltaic components increased by 42%, 37%, and 41%, respectively. It is significantly higher than the increase in the yield of silicon material, causing tight supply of silicon material. The high price of silicon material is related to the market's supply. In this context, many companies are actively expanding production. GCL Technology's polycrystalline silicon output in 2021 is about 104,500 tons. This year, the company has new projects in Xuzhou, Leshan, and Baotou. It is expected that all silicon material capacity will reach 360,000 tons at the end of this year. TCL Technology has also announced recently that it will lay out 100,000 tons of granules with GCL Technology. The on -board CNC also disclosed the announcement on June 23 that it is planned to build an annual output of 40GW single crystal silicon stroke crystal and related supporting production projects in the new planning zone of Baotou Equipment Manufacturing Industrial Park. The investment is about 14.8 billion yuan. There are also people from photovoltaic power plant development companies told the Securities Daily that the production capacity and output increase of upstream silicon materials cannot meet the needs of the middle and downstream market, and the export volume of midstream and downstream products has increased significantly, resulting in a phased supply of silicon materials, resulting in silicon materials, resulting in silicon materials The price rose sharply. In the short term of silicon material production capacity that cannot be released in the short term and in short supply, the first half of the company's performance has increased greatly. On the evening of July 8, Daquan Energy issued an announcement saying that it is expected that the net profit range of the mother will be 9.4 billion yuan to 9.6 billion yuan in the semi -annual 2022 year, and the year -on -year increase range is 335.03%to 344.28%. The reason for the large profit growth is that the photovoltaic market continues to grow this year, and the high -pure polycrystalline silicon material is still one of the shortcomings for the entire industrial chain. Therefore, the price of polysilicon market continues to rise. In addition, the company's third phase B stage project was reached in the early years, and the release of new capacity release drove sales in the first half of the year by about 80%. Thanks to the rise in the sales of silicon materials, the company's profitability has continued to increase, and its performance has increased significantly during the reporting period. It also benefits from the rise and price of the silicon material business and the increase in the proportion of large -sized products in battery films, and the performance of Tongwei shares of the "King of Silicon" is even more eye -catching. The company is expected to achieve a net profit range of 12 billion yuan to 12.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and the year -on -year increase range is 304.62%to 321.48%. The net profit of only half a year has exceeded the net profit of last year (8.208 billion yuan), which greatly exceeded market expectations. Qunyi Securities analysts said that although there are more silicon material capacity release in the second half of the year, the market demand has increased, and some factors will be suspended and maintained in July, and the downstream new capacity library will be affected. extend. Frequent suppliers of photovoltaic components frequently defaulted by a number of enterprises in the interview with the Securities Daily that this year's silicon material rising is expected, but the high level of 300,000 yuan/ton on the price of silicon material still allows it Shao, midstream and downstream enterprises directly called "very injured". Compared with silicon material companies, silicon wafers and component companies are not profitable. However, as the prices of upstream silicon materials continue to rise, downstream companies such as silicon wafers, batteries, and components have also begun to join the price increase team. The investment director of the above -mentioned new energy investment enterprises mentioned that 60 % of the entire industry chain profit was taken away by silicon material companies. For downstream battery films, components and terminal power stations, the profit space was very limited.

Although the production capacity of silicon materials will be greatly improved in the fourth quarter, the upstream silicon material companies still have a strong bargaining ability, and whether the price of components can be reduced. The above -mentioned photovoltaic power plant development companies also mentioned that the price of silicon materials rose sharply, resulting in an increase in the cost of middle and lower reaches of production enterprises, a decrease in the operating rate, and frequent breach of contract and destruction of the supply side of photovoltaic components. Originally thought that the price increase of the component was only a moment of hype, and it fell back in two weeks. What I thought of is that the increase in waves after signing the contract and the prepaid payment. Many items have stagnated because they can't get the components. It is worth mentioning that under the "double carbon" goal, it is the general trend to accelerate the construction of photovoltaic power stations. According to data from the National Energy Administration, the cumulative installation volume of photovoltaic installations from January to May this year was 23.71GW, an increase of 139.3%year -on -year. The rapid growth of photovoltaic power generation machines has a strong demand for downstream photovoltaic components, and high upstream product prices will lead to an intensified photovoltaic industry chain. "When the price of the component rose to 1.9 yuan/watt, it had reached the critical point of the company's investment decision. At this time, the start -up enthusiasm of the optical power station will be greatly reduced. When the price of the component rises above 2 yuan/watt, most companies in the industry have already already been in the industry. Fully feel the stress and start to tangled whether it starts on schedule. The project construction progress plan at the beginning of the year has been greatly affected. "The investment director of the new energy investment enterprise above said," If the investment income is lower than the minimum threshold, the high probability of enterprises will slow down the construction The rhythm, choose the opportunity to start work, because the economic benefits of the project must be considered. "A number of industry insiders interviewed by the reporter of the Securities Daily believe that the imbalance of the photovoltaic industry chain has intensified, which affects the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry on the one hand. The construction progress of photovoltaic development. Recommended reading

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