Excessive expectations!The car market rebounds strong, and the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to rise

On July 8th, data released by the Federation of Federation showed that the retail sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles in June reached 532,000, an increase of 47.6%month -on -month. In addition, the Passenger Federation will make an optimistic prediction of passenger car sales in July. It is expected that production and sales will increase by about 20%year -on -year, which can achieve a good situation that is not faint during the off -season.

At the same time, localities encourage car consumption policies to continue to increase, and the sales of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year are expected to continue to rise. In the latest report, Morgan Stanley raised the forecast of China's new energy vehicle benchmark sales by 24%to 5.7 million units in 2022.

Passenger car retail growth rate is the highest in the same period in the same period of 6 years

According to data from the Federation of Federation, the retail market in the passenger car market in June reached 1.943 million units, an increase of 22.6%year -on -year, and an increase of 43.5%month -on -month. The growth rate of retail sales in the past month reached the highest value of the same period of the same period. From January to June, a total of 9.261 million retail sales, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, of which the impact of 10.31 million units from March to May.

Photo source: multiplied association

Among them, 810,000 independent brands were retail in June, an increase of 31.0%month -on -month. The domestic retail share of independent brands is 42.5%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year -on -year. It is worth noting that independent brands have achieved significant increase in the new energy market, and head companies have performed well. BYD, Changan, Geely and Chery and other traditional car companies have increased significantly.

In terms of inventory, due to the implementation of the decrease in the purchase tax, it has been implemented in June, and since May, manufacturers have contributed greater contributions to increasing increase in libraries. In June, manufacturer's inventory increased by 10,000 vehicles from the previous month, and a cumulative increase of 50,000 units from January to June, while the inventory of manufacturers from January to June 2021 fell by 270,000 units. This year's manufacturer's inventory improved greatly.

The multiplied association emphasized: "The global outbreak is serious under the epidemic, and the return of China's auto market to the high level is a rare achievement, laying the stable foundation for exports and domestic sales. Due to the guarantee of inventory, the terminal retail in early June has significantly strengthened under policy promotion. , The dealer's inventory is converted to a strong retail increase. "

"The continuous improvement of logistics and supply chains after the epidemic, the resilience of exports, the resumption of the industry, and the superposition of the positive policies can effectively promote the growth of the auto market."

Sales exceed that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaches 27.4%

In June, under the general trend of retail volume of passenger cars, the sales of new energy passenger cars showed "dazzling". The sales of new energy vehicles improved the expectations from the previous month.

Photo source: multiplied association

In June, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 532,000, an increase of 130.8%year -on -year, and a 47.6%increase of 47.6%month -on -month. Earlier, the Federation of Federation predicted nearly 500,000 retail.

From January to June, the domestic retail of new energy passenger cars was 2.248 million, an increase of 122.5%year-on-year, and the year-on-year sales data still maintained a high-speed growth trend.

In terms of penetration, in June, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 27.4%, an increase of 12.8 percentage points from the penetration rate of 14.6%in the same period last year.

It is worth noting that the sales volume of the new energy passenger car in June hit a record high. BYD's pure electric and plug -in dual -drives consolidate the new energy leading position of independent brands; traditional car companies represented by Chery Group and GAC Group are in the new energy sector The performance is relatively prominent. There are 16 enterprises with a wholesale sales of manufacturers (3 increases from the previous month, an increase of 11 year -on -month), accounting for 85%of the total number of new energy passenger cars.

The first five camps are: BYD 133762, Tesla China 78906 vehicles, SAIC -GM Wuling 49,450, Geely Automobile 29,671 vehicles, and 24109 GAC Ean.

In terms of new power car companies, Weilai, ideal, Nezha, Xiaopeng, and zero -run single sales have exceeded 10,000 units, and the growth rate has further increased. Nezha and Zero Run in the second camp have performed strongly.

At the same time, the multiplier will make further predictions on sales in July. According to the Federation of Federation, the domestic re -production and resumption of production are in place quickly. In July, the production capacity of passenger car is very strong. It is expected that production and sales will increase by about 20%year -on -year.

The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to rise

It is worth noting that consumer policies are encouraged to continue to increase, and the sales of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year are expected to continue to grow at a high speed.

Taking Shandong as an example, in July, Shandong Province issued 200 million yuan of passenger car consumer coupons, and the total amount of commercial car consumer coupons was issued unchanged, and the distribution time was extended to the end of July.

According to the Research Report of Zhongtai Securities, in the second half of the year, Weilai ES7/ET5, ideal L9, Xiaopeng G9, Nezha S, Qiqijie M7 and other new cars were delivered intensively, stacking new energy vehicles to the countryside activities and new energy vehicles in various places. The subsidy policy is stimulating, and the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to rise.

Huaxi Securities said that a new round of new energy vehicles go to the countryside is expected to accelerate the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the sinking market. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy passenger cars throughout the year will exceed 5.3 million vehicles.

In the latest report, Morgan Stanley further increased the sales forecast of China's new energy vehicle in 2022, raised the forecast of new energy vehicle benchmark sales by 24%to 5.7 million units in 2022, and raised 17%to 6.6 million units in 2023.

Responsible editor: Wang Shidan | Audit: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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