The price of pork finally fell after 17 days in a row!The mysterious power behind this wave of off -season rises is ...

After a short period of 17 days in a row

Is the price of pork reaching a high point?

On July 7, the average price of pigs in the country fell sharply by 0.81 yuan, the average price fell to 23.04 yuan/kg, and pig prices in the north and south regions fell down. 1.2 yuan/kg.

Continue to fall on July 8th, the price of the three yuan and external three yuan in the pigs fell to 22.31 yuan/kg and 22.21 yuan/kg, respectively.

However, the slight decline is nothing compared to the previous rise.

According to data from China Pig Network, pork wholesale prices have risen all the way since the second quarter. From 18.23 yuan/kg on April 1 to 24.1 yuan/kg on June 30, the increase was about 32.2%.

The price of pork in Shanghai also rose to the highest province. From the statistics, the price is relatively stable from June 1st to June 21st, which is maintained at 16-17 yuan per kilogram. The price of pork rose rapidly from June 22. On July 7, the three yuan of pigs and pigs were 24.85 yuan/kg, 24.45 yuan/kg, respectively, and increased by 53.87%and 51.86%since June.

In the past two days, the price of pork in Shanghai has fallen to a decline to below the national average.

Why is the price of pork rising?

The direct reason is "lack of pigs".

From the quarter from 2021 to 2022, it can be seen that the amount of pigs survive (the number of pig breeding heads at a certain point at a certain point) is relatively stable, while the number of outlets (the number of pigs sold as a commodity in the market) has decreased significantly, decreased decrease 70.85%.

So, why is the amount of deposit not changed much, but the outlet volume is so much different?

Feng Yonghui, an analyst of the pig industry, introduced that the driving force of this wave of pork prices mainly comes from the decrease in the piglet column caused by the previous sow's de -capacity.

In the pig farming industry, the number of pigs deposits is equivalent to inventory, which can be equivalent to production capacity. If the capacity is insufficient, the supply will naturally be affected.

The reduction of production capacity will not affect the supply immediately. Generally, changes in the amount of sow's deposit will not be transmitted to the changes in the number of pigs and prices after 10 months.

In other words, this wave of outlets are affected by the previous wave of sows, and the current amount of depository affects the price of pork 10 months later.

Data show that in the third quarter of 2021, the amount of sowing columns has fallen rapidly, which is an important reason for the decrease in the number of pigs in the second quarter of this year.

In addition, as the price of pigs has risen since late June, farmers are generally optimistic about the market market, and irrational pressure fences have been sold on the market and secondary fattening (that is, buying pigs at a market price, and fertilizer for fertilizer. The phenomenon of selling or reaching a certain weight, earning the intermediate difference) phenomenon, this kind of sale emotion has further decreased the outlet volume, thereby prompting the price of pigs to rise faster.

The mysterious "pig cycle"

Now that there is a certain time cycle to raise sow storage columns and pigs, this cycle means that breeding sows need to predict the market in advance.

However, because my country's breeding industry is mainly based on farmers, a single producer is more likely to "chase and kill". At the same time, because of lack of technology and funds, it is difficult for retail investors to respond quickly to market changes.

Under such circumstances, when the price of pork rises, farmers will expand the amount of sows (production capacity) to promote the increase in supply of pigs; increased supply leads to a decline in meat prices, causing the previously increased sows to be eliminated and production capacity decreases. As a result, the supply of pigs has decreased and the price of meat is rising.

This periodic fluctuation phenomenon is our commonly known "pig cycle".

Since 2006, my country has gone through 4 pig cycles. Each round of pig cycles is divided into rising periods and declines. A complete round of pig cycles will go through about 3 to 4 years.

The last round of pig cycle began in May 2018. From May 2018 to August 2020, a 27 -month rising period was experienced, and during this rising period, it was affected by multiple external factors such as African swine fever, production restriction policies, and large -scale pigs. For new highs, the maximum amplitude of pig prices reached 268%during the cycle.

After August 2020, the price of pigs entered a period of decline until the rise in April this year.

Will pig prices continue to rise?

One point is that at present, it has entered a new round of pig cycle.

The basis for this judgment is that during this round of pig cycle since May 2018, pig prices have found twice. The first bottom of the bottom appeared in October 2021, and the second time was 4 this year's 4th 4th’s 4 this year. month. In the previous few rounds of the historical price trend of the pig cycle, such a law has appeared -after two prices of the decline in the decline period, the price increase period of a new round of pig cycle has been opened.

At the same time, the de -capacity of sow can cause the decrease in the supply of pigs to increase prices, which seems to meet the rising period of time of the pig cycle.

But there is also a view that it is too early to talk about the current period.

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, pointed out that in terms of demand, the current consumption off -season, and the short -term boost of pork consumption will become stable.

From the perspective of supply, under the influence of the peak period of the pork frozen product in the early stage of the breeding household pressure fence, the pork frozen products in the third quarter, the market supply will be ushered in the peak period of the warehouse, and the market supply will be appropriately put on reserves. Further improvement. In addition, the policy level does not want pork prices to rise too fast. The National Development and Reform Commission has recently risen too fast in pig prices. The organizational industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises have held meetings and pointed out that the current pig production capacity is generally reasonable and abundant. In addition, the consumption is not strong. Take effective measures such as reserves adjustment and supply and demand adjustment in a timely manner to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively, and strengthen market supervision with relevant departments, and severely punish illegal acts such as coaxing prices.

Data show that in May, there were 41.92 million sows in the country's depository, an increase of 0.4%month -on -month. After 10 months of decline, it achieved the first growth. This number is also clearly within the scope of normal preservation range of the "Implementation Plan (Interim)" of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Various factors show that pig prices do not have the conditions to rise rapidly. From the current point of view, under multi -layer pressure, the market may enter the stages of the sideways again. The focus of the pig price will fall to about 20 yuan/kg. However, the reporter learned from various wholesale markets. The source supply is still tight, and the price of pigs still has a strong trend.

Liberation Daily · Shangguan News Original manuscript, reprinting without permission

Author: He Shuyao Liu Jiayi

WeChat editor: Jiasinmin

School pair: wing

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