The Federal Reserve's June meeting 90 times mentioned "inflation" in July or continued to raise interest rates 75 basis points

Text | Liu Qi Han Yu

On July 6 (local time in the United States, the same below), the Fed announced its minutes of the Monetary Policy Conference in June. At this meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to raise 75 basis points at one time, the largest interest rate hike since 1994, in order to curb the inflation of the US high. The minutes announced this time showed that Fed officials supported the discussion of interest rate hikes at the July interest rate conference, and the probability that it would be selected among 75 basis or 50 basis points. "Securities Daily" reporter noticed that many Federal Reserve officials have recently conducted a "eagle" voice, and market forecasting continues to increase the possibility of 75 basis points. At the same time, the minutes of the minutes also hinted that the Fed's determination to suppress inflation has not shaken. Even if the rapid interest rate hike may slow down the US economic growth, the first -class task of the Federal Reserve is still to reduce the inflation rate to 2%. If the inflation is high, the Fed may still adopt a more "restricted" policy position. The minutes of the conference announcement released by the Federal Reserve that can be held in a tightening monetary policy show that in a short 12 -page document, the term "inflation" has appeared 90 times, which is enough to highlight the determination of the Fed to suppress inflation. The minutes mentioned that before the US CPI data was released in May, market expectations were expected to have a high probability of 50 basis points in June and July. But in May, CPI rose 8.6%year -on -year, setting a new high in nearly 40 years. The cost of consumption of energy and food, such as energy and food, has also risen rapidly. The market predicts that the interest rate hike in June and July will reach 75 basis points, and the prediction of the Fed's interest rate hike path will also increase. "Participants were worried. In May, CPI data showed that the inflation pressure did not show a weakened trend, but made it more convinced that the inflation phenomenon would be more lasting than the duration of the previous expectations. The income group brings great pressure. The price of food, gasoline, housing and other necessities has risen rapidly, and the ability of residents to bear the necessary living costs has decreased significantly. " At the same time, the minutes also made it clear that members of the meeting realized that suppression of inflation may lead to slowing economic growth in the United States and may affect the employment market. However, the goal of falling in inflation to 2%is the key to ensuring continuous and full employment, and believes that the United States' economic prospects can withstand a tightening monetary policy. It is worth noting that the word "recession" was not mentioned in the minutes of the announcement. However, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell admitted that he participated in the hearing of the Senate Bank of the Congress on June 22 that the economic recession in the United States was "of course a possibility", but it said that the Fed's unintentional introduction was not expected to achieve. When Powell participated in the annual forums of the European Central Bank in Portugal on June 29, the U.S. economy's "soft landing" channels became increasingly narrowed. In July or continued to raise interest rates, 75 basis points also hinted at the minutes that in order to achieve the U.S. inflation rate finally fell to the Fed's target 2%, at the same time achieved full employment, and participants may support the "more restricted" policy position. "If inflation continues to rise, a more restrictive policy position will retain room for implementing a more tightening policy. Many participants determine that a major risk now faces is that if the public begins to question The determination, the inflation problem will become deeply ingrained. " (The minutes of the meeting mentioned the "more restricted" policy position. Picture source: Federal Reserve Conference Minister Documents) Tian Lihui, Dean of the Institute of Financial Development of Nankai University, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the Federal Reserve claims "more" more The position of restrictions means that the Fed retains the possibility of taking more powerful measures to suppress inflation. This includes the relatively continuously raised and more intense open market operations of the federal fund interest rates, and it is even likely that it is likely to consider using the legal reserve requirements of commercial banks to adjust this more influential market regulation tool. The minutes also mentioned that Esther George, the Chairman of the Kansas Fed, was the only one of the 18 decision makers that did not support 75 basis points in June. She said that a large interest rate hike may cause more uncertainty. Regarding the July rate hike resolution, many Federal Reserve officials and directors have spoken to support 75 basis points to raise interest rate hikes, including the original officials who are biased towards the "pigeon", such as the San Francisco Fed Chairman Dali. She said on July 1 that the federal fund interest rate is expected to be increased to 3.1%by the end of this year, and at the same time support 75 basis points in interest rate hikes in July. And Dali's previous discussion has always been "too fast interest rate hikes may damage the economy." In May, Dali still stated that the rating of 75 base points was not her main consideration.

Recommended reading

12 measures to increase car consumption steadily! Comprehensively cancel the policy of second -hand car restrictions ...

The vehicle sector rose 4.37%again, and the net inflow of funds in the north was more than 1.6 billion yuan! The institution claims that A -share squatting time will not be too long

Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Map.com

- END -