Where will the Russian conflict go from?If there is a possibility of completely out of control, you can consider timely diplomatic intervention in a timely manner

Author: Battle Law Express

According to media reports, the Chairman of the European Commission Ulsula Von Delin said recently that 27 member states of the European Union "need to formulate an emergency plan to prepare for the Kremlin's supply of Russia's natural gas after the Ukraine War." It is reported that the European Union has imposed sanctions on Russia, including some energy supply, and is far away from transportation under the control of the Kremlin. Feng Deline said: "We still need to prepare to stop the supply of natural gas, and even completely cut off the Russian natural gas supply." She said that with the increasing political confrontation with Moscow on the invasion of Ukraine, more than a dozen member states have "affected the impact caused by the reduction or comprehensive reduction of natural gas supply." "Obviously, Putin will continue to treat energy as a weapon. This is why the European Commission is formulating the European emergency plan."

At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified. The battlefield is a military confrontation, and there is an energy game outside the battlefield. There is no doubt that Russia and the West are doing their best to become the final winner. The development trend of things also depends on the victory and defeat of these two directions. On the battlefield, Russia must overcome various difficulties and continue to be effectively promoted until the collapse of the current regime of Ukraine, or most of the territory of Ukraine is effectively occupied, otherwise, Ukraine will not surrender. In the field of energy, the United States is trying to suppress oil prices, and Europe is also looking for possible alternative import solutions. If it can effectively cut off Russia's source of funds, the West will also give Russia a major blow, making the war unsustainable.

On the whole, the current trend is already very clear. To a certain extent, the West lacks the courage to fight against Russia. After all, Russia's huge nuclear weapon library is not furnishings. When any need, it can give Western countries a fatal blow. Then, whoever is dead depends on whose speed is fast, whether Russia's military advancement is faster or faster in the West, which will decide where the balance of war falls to a certain extent. On this issue, Russia's winning face is too large, but it cannot completely rule out the possibility of the West. At present, some gentle countries represented by France have become tougher than the strong pressure of the United States.

In this case, for China, Russia or the West's a little victory is not too great. As long as the balance of strength is not fundamentally broken, things are controllable. Of course, the victory of Russia has greater benefits to China. It can greatly fight the pride of the West to a great extent, so that they will be more pragmatic and humble when dealing with China, and when solving the Taiwan issue in the future, they will also be because The last interference in the shadow of failure became awe -inspiring. Therefore, if it can, China should still give Russia to Russia within a reasonable and legal scope to increase its chances of winning in the process of game with the West. In fact, this is more closely related to the current Sino -Russian relations. It is unsuccessful.

But for China, the biggest risk is the comprehensive war between Russia and NATO. After experiencing the lessons and lessons of the First and Second World War, I believe that both Russia and NATO will be as careful as possible, but many times The development of things is not transferred by people's will. If such a tragedy really happens, China's strategic rotation space will be greatly compressed because to how much help Russia will be difficult to consider. In any case, the situation of Russia's complete failure is unacceptable, but at the same time, the fact that Western power is more powerful also needs to be acknowledged. Therefore, when the timing is appropriate, it is particularly important to involve diplomacy in Russia and Ukraine to prevent the situation from being completely out of control.

Optimistic speaking, between Russia and the West, there will be a balanced point of interest; if you are pessimistic, this balance point is difficult to find, like walking on the cliff, and accidentally the abyss. Therefore, although China is a third -party country, it still needs to maintain a high attention to the development of Russia and Ukraine's conflict and make predictions. On this basis, it is best to make decisions that are most in line with China's national interests.

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