Typhoon "Fireworks" and Hurricane "Aida" storm value forecast and analysis based on the Typhoon Fireworks and Hurricane "Aida"

Author:National Ocean Forecasting Tai Time:2022.07.07

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Author: Xiong Jie 1 Fu Fu 1 in Fujiang 12 Dong Jianxi 12

Unit: 1. National Marine Environment Forecast Center, Beijing 100081;

2. Key laboratory of marine disaster forecast technology research of the Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081

Category Number: P731.34

Publishing Year · Volume · Period (page number): 2022 · 39 · III (1-9)

Abstract: Based on the global storm tide value forecast model that has been verified, the ECMWF fine grid forecasting wind farm is used to conduct the inspection and analysis of Typhoon 2106 "Fireworks" and Hurricane AL2109 "Eda". The results show that: Typhoon "Fireworks" 48 h and 24 h forecasting paths, strength and actual measurement, the average absolute errors of 48 h and 24 h in each tide position are 0.49 m and 0.22 m, respectively. %; Hurricane "Aida" 48 h and 24 h forecasting paths are westwest, and the forecast intensity is lower than the actual measurement. The average absolute errors of 48 h and 24 h in each tide position are 1.14 m and 0.49 m, respectively, and the average relative errors are respectively. It is 61.29%and 25.17%. Analyze the reasons for the prediction error of the storm tide value. It is found that the large typhoon "fireworks" of the large typhoon "Fireworks" with a large typhoon "Fireworks" with a large number of typhoon "Fireworks" of the ECMWF fine grid wind farm is high. The accuracy of the forecast is slightly insufficient, resulting in the error of the typhoon "fireworks" storm tide forecast significantly smaller than the hurricane "Aida". The ECMWF fine grid wind farm can be a useful supplement to drive the tidal tide numerical forecast. Establishing a fusion wind farm for model wind farm and ECMWF fine mesh wind farm will further improve the accuracy of storm trends.

Keywords: Typhoon "Fireworks"; Hurricane "Aida"; ECMWF fine grid; storm trend; numerical forecast

Abstract：Based on the validated global storm surge numerical forecasting model, the ECMWF fine grid wind field is used to carry out storm surge numerical forecast verification and analysis for typhoon "In-Fa"(2106) and hurricane "Ida"(Al2109). The results show that the track and intensity of the 48 h and 24 h forecast of typhoon "In-Fa" are close to observations. Compared to the observations at each tide gauges, the average absolute errors of 48 h and 24 h forecast are 0.49 m and 0.22 m, and the average relative errors are 30.17% and 12.56%,respectively. For the 48 h and 24 h forecast of Hurricane Ida, the track shows a location bias to the west and the intensity is weaker compared to observations. Compared to the observations at each tide gauges, the average absolute errors of 48 h and 24 h forecast are 1.14 m and 0.49 m, and the average relative errors are 61.29% and25.17%, respectively. By analyzing the reasons for the storm surge numerical Forecast Error, It is Found that the ECMW F fine grid wind field has high accuracy in forecasting the large-scale typhoon "In-Fa" with huge wind circles and slow intensity changes. However, the forecast accuracy for hurricane "Ida" that occurs within a short period of time with strong intensity is slightly insufficient, which led to the forecast error of storm surge caused by "In-Fa" is significantly less than that caused by hurricane "Ida". The ECMWF fine grid wind field can be a useful supplement for the storm surge numerical forecast, and the hybrid wind field of the model wind field and the ECMWF fine grid wind field will further improve the accuracy of the storm surge forecast.Key words：typhoon "In-Fa"; hurricane "Ida"; ECMWF fine grid; storm surge; numerical foreast

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The marine environment forecast in the next two days

Expected tomorrow,

There are light waves from 0.8 to 1.3 meters in the Bohai and Yellow Sea;

There are light waves from 1.2 to 1.6 meters near the waters near the East China Sea and Diaoyu Islands;

The Taiwan Strait, the Toyo of Taiwan, and 1 to 1.4 meters of the waves to the middle waves;

There are 1 to 1.5 meters of light waves in the north and central parts of the South China Sea;

There are 1.3 to 2 meters of Zhonglang District in the south of the South China Sea;

Beibu Gulf has a light wave of 0.8 to 1.2 meters.

Expected the day after tomorrow,

There is no big wave area in my country.

July 7th to 11th, northwest Pacific wave value forecasting map

Beautiful island waters sea conditions

Expected tomorrow,

There are 1.8 meters near the waters near Dongji Island and Yongshu Reef. The Shengsi Islands, Putuo Mountain, Dachen Island, and Nanji Island are 1.3 ~ 1.5 meters near the waves. These islands are more suitable for traveling by boat;

The waters near the other beautiful islands in my country are light waves, with good sea conditions, and they are very suitable for traveling and island.

Beautiful island refers to the following 35 islands:

Juehua Island, Changshan Islands, Bodhi Island, Long Island, Liu Gong Island, Lingshan Island, Qinshan Island, Lianjima, Chongming Island, Shengsi Islands, Sushan Island, Dongji Island, Putuo Mountain, Dachen Island, Yuhuan Island, Dongdong Tou Island, Nanji Island, Laoshan Island, Sandu Island, Pingtan Island, Meizhou Island, Dongshan Island, Diaoyu Island, South Australia Islands, Wanshan Islands, Sichuan Shan Islands, Hailing Island, South Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, Dong Island, East Island, East Island, East Island, Dong Island Dazhou Island, Boundary Island, Wuzhizhou Island, Yongxing Island, Huangyan Island, Yongshu Reef.

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