In the past month, the current price of the iron ore period has both fell more than 18% of the downstream steel industry to usher in favorable benefits

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.07.07

Wen | Li Zheng

According to data from business agency, the reference price of spot iron ore (Australia) on July 6 was 816.22 yuan/ton, a total of 17.62%from 990.78 yuan/ton on June 6. In terms of futures market, public data shows that as of July 6, the main contract for iron ore was priced at 747 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 20.15%in the past month. Many analysts believe that the price of iron ore in the second half of the year will continue the downward trend and the average price will continue to move down. It is worth noting that although the price of iron ore has fallen, the steel sector in its lower reaches has ushered in a wave of stock prices due to the decline in raw material prices. Iron ore prices "abdominal back to the enemy" as a commodity, the market price of iron ore is most affected by the macroeconomic operation. Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes and expectations have been frequent in recent periods. The global economy has faced the risk of recession. There was also a clear callback. At the same time, the domestic real estate industry is operating at a low level, and the demand for steel has decreased significantly. According to data from the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May 2022, the funds of real estate companies were 6040.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 25.8%, and the decrease of 23.6%from January to April, of which the sales repayment was 289.26 billion yuan , Year -on -year decreased by 35.9%. In May, housing enterprises were 1188.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 33.4%, of which the sales repayment was 553.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 44.9%. Ye Yindan believes that from the perspective of historical data, the demand for steel in the real estate industry accounts for more than 45%of the total demand for steel in my country. It is the main force of the domestic steel industry. The various indicators of the real estate industry have declined on a large area, which has also led to the domestic steel market demand. decline. "According to estimates, the demand for the domestic steel market from January to May this year has decreased by about 35%. The reduction of steel demand has brought about reduced iron ore demand, and prices have also lowered. With the advent of the traditional off -season of the steel market in June, the market is in the market. The demand has fallen further, and the further decline of steel and iron ore prices is inevitable. "Ye Yindan further stated that steel prices have declined sharply, and steel companies have significantly reduced demand for ore. At the same time, when the steel inventory is high and the demand is weak, some steel mills have been forced to start planning and production restrictions on the planning of blast furnaces in mid -June, thereby reducing the demand for iron ore. Yang Jinghao, chief economist of Kang Kai data, told reporters that from the perspective of supply, seasonal factors are also not neglected. As the delivery of iron ore production began to enter the seasonal peak, the number of iron ore on the shore is expected to rise. The expected ore prices are expected to be suppressed. "So what kind of trend will the price of iron ore show in the future? Ge Xin, deputy director of the Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the global iron ore market will usher in the rising wave of supply from the second half of the year. In terms of multiple factors such as the continuous impact of global interest rate hikes and the large reduction of domestic steel mills, the market prices of imported iron ore in the second half of the year are expected to show the average price of the average price, and the fluctuation range will gradually narrow. "Because nearly two two two. The continued 'huge profits' of the annual raw material commodities, most of the global mining companies have significantly increased their development investment, making the release of the iron ore supply side will be gradually accelerated, and the Chinese "cornerstone plan" will be launched in an orderly manner. Imported iron ore prices will be 'back to the enemy'. At the same time, because most steel companies have reduced production from maintenance to large production, the overall scale has also transitioned from small volume to large amounts. "Ge Xin further stated that the production gate of domestic steel companies has officially opened. At the same time, the production restriction policy in the second half of the year will also be another important factor affecting the price of iron ore. , The valuation of the steel sector in the lower reaches ushered in a little bit of correction. Public data shows that as of July 6, the A -share market steel sector index (801007.EI) has increased by 4.88%in the past month. Fushun Special Steel (Cumulative increased by 15.05%), Headian Steel (10.5%) and other stocks have risen. Guosheng Securities believes that the short -term supply and demand situation of steel and steel has improved significantly. The fixed growth of rough steel output policies and stable growth has prompted the industry's supply and demand situation. In the context of high increase in infrastructure investment, good real estate policies, and increasing iron mines. It is said that the decline in iron ore is relieved the cost of steel mills, which is a great factor for the steel sector. According to Yang Ruyi, the current overall valuation of the steel sector is still low, and the work of recovery and re -production is promoted in an orderly manner. The manufacturing industry The demand recovery, and the large -scale infrastructure projects of local governments have been promoted to stimulate the margin of steel demand. At the same time, in the context of the "double carbon", the profit logic of the steel industry has been restructured. Steel companies have further benefited in cyclical rotation. Investment value of the sector. Liu Youhua, deputy director of the Wealth Research Department of Paiwang.com, believes that it is expected that in the second half of the year, another important factor for the recovery of the steel market demand is the continuous growth of new energy vehicles. . The decline in the price of overlapping iron ore is conducive to the improvement of the tons of steel gross profit, and it is relatively optimistic about the next performance of the steel sector.