Energy raw materials bring the supply chain "anti -wind", the manufacturing crisis impacts the advantages of the German and Japan automobile industry

Special reporter in Germany Zhao Dong ● Song Yi

According to data from the German Federal Statistics Bureau on July 4, the trade deficit in May reached about $ 1 billion, which was the first monthly trade deficit in Germany in 30 years. Expert analysis said that the export trade of German manufacturing is undergoing the test of raw materials and energy costs, and this situation has been reflected in the production data of the German automotive industry. At the same time, Japan, which has a similar industrial structure, is also encountering manufacturing difficulties. On the occasion of the continued "adversity" in German Japanese car companies, the Chinese automobile industry began to come up with eye -catching trade data after getting rid of the recent domestic new crown pneumonia's epidemic. In the first half of the year, China ’s automobile exports are expected to be“ 掰 ”with the world's runner -up Germany.

Trade imbalances affect German car companies

"Exit downturn has begun", a German TV reported on the 4th that compared with the same period of 2021, Germany's export volume increased by 11.7%in May this year to 125.8 billion euros, while the import amount increased by 27.8%to 126.7 billion EUR. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 5 that this was the first time in Germany's monthly imports since 1991 (after the unity of East and West and East and West). Dependence on exports and manufacturing has become a weakness of the German economy.

The Wall Street Journal states that the soaring energy price has broken the trade balance in Germany. This has led to a significant increase in the cost of imports from Russia and other energy supply countries. In the five months of May, Germany's imports from Russia increased by 54.5%year -on -year, and exports fell by 29.8%. The report quoted UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist Paul Donanwan that Germany's import trade was not hindrance, but export trade may not be enough. The analysis of Oliver Latao, an economist of Oxford Economic Research Institute, states: "Recent macro data indicates how much dependence on external demand on external needs and raw materials, energy and intermediate products in Germany."

Dek Yangdura, chairman of the German Federal Foreign Trade Service Association, said that at present, exports are mainly supported by the growth of trade with the United States. Overall, there are fewer and fewer German companies. "If the natural gas supply of Russia is cut off, the situation may become more severe. Therefore, there is no choice but to have more free trade," Yan Dula said.

"The shortage of German industrial raw materials has intensified." Voice of Germany quoted a survey report on the IFO Economic Research Institute of Munich on July 3 that in June, 74.1%of German companies faced bottlenecks in intermediate products and raw materials procurement. About 90%of companies claim that they have not received the required materials and primary products, and it is expected that "the supply problem cannot disappear during the year." In key German industries such as automobile manufacturing and mechanical engineering, the proportion of enterprises with supply chain problems is particularly high.

At present, German new car backlog orders have reached a record high, but due to the shortage of components, auto manufacturers cannot meet market demand. The registered volume of new vehicles issued by the German Ministry of Transport (KBA) decreased by 10.2%year -on -year. In terms of registered volume of various brands: Volkswagen fell 14.3%year -on -year, BMW fell 12.8%, Audi decreased by 12.3%, and Mercedes and Obuba rose. According to the latest data released by Volkswagen in Germany, the group delivered 658,300 passenger cars worldwide in May, a year -on -year decrease of 23.5%. In China, Western Europe, and North America, Volkswagen's sales have decreased by about 24%year -on -year.

Japanese cars have declined

The Japanese manufacturing industry similar to the German economic structure also encountered the energy and supply chain crisis, and the automobile manufacturing industry was the first.

The results of the short -term economic observation survey released by the June enterprise released by the Bank of Japan on July 1 show that the large -scale manufacturing enterprise prosperity judgment index decreased by 5 to 9 points from the March survey, which worsen for two consecutive quarters. The main reason is that prices such as raw materials are high and the supply of component supply caused by some cities in China. The judgment index shows that 12 of all 16 industries have deteriorated, and automobiles, production machinery, and electrical machinery are significantly affected by components.

At the same time, Japan ’s industrial output released in May at the end of June two years has declined in two years. Data show that in May, Japan ’s industrial output decreased by 7.2%month -on -month, and the output of products such as automobiles, electrical and universal machinery decreased significantly. The production and sales data of the eight major vehicles in Japan also verified this. The total domestic production in May, which was announced at the end of June, a total of 39.6433 million units, a decrease of 16.0%from the same period last year. Toyota Motors decreased by 28.5%year -on -year, the Dafa industry decreased by 54.5%, and Mazda decreased by 30.2%.

In terms of sales, statistics released by the Japan Automobile Sales Federation on July 1 show that from January to June this year, the number of new cars sold in Japan was 2.086 million units, a decrease of 15%compared with the same period last year. The sales of this car are the lowest in the past 10 years. Among them, ordinary cars, trucks, buses and other sales were more than 1.28 million, and light cars were more than 800,000, all of which decreased by 15%compared with the same period last year.

The number of cars sold by Japanese car companies have also decreased. According to "Asahi Shimbun" reported on June 29, the global car sales released by the eight major car dealers in Japan decreased by 16.2%compared with the same period last year. This is a decline in global sales of Japanese car companies worldwide since August last year.

Some Japanese media believe that sales of Japanese car companies have decreased in domestic and overseas. From the surface reasons, it is mainly affected by insufficient components due to rising energy prices, global chip shortages, and new crown pneumonia. In transformation, in the context of electric vehicles, it is difficult for Japanese car companies to compete with the newly rising Sino -US electric vehicle companies. "Made in China" accelerates going to sea

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, from January to May 2022, China Automobile exported 1.08 million vehicles, of which 230,000 were exported in May. In contrast, Germany exported a total of 795,000 vehicles from January to April, and Japan exported a total of 1.126 million vehicles. Although the lack of export data from Germany and Japan in May, German car exports have recently suffered stagnation. In April, only 17,600 vehicles were exported, plunging 94%. In the first half of this year, Chinese automobile exports are expected to surpass Germany and approach Japan.

According to data from China Automobile Association, China ’s automobile exports 2015,000 in 2021, which turned over almost compared with 2020. It is second only to Japan (3.82 million) and Germany (2.3 million) in the world third, and surpassed South Korea. (1.52 million). Among them, the export volume of new energy reached 310,000 units, an increase of 304.6%year -on -year. In an interview with domestic media, Cui Dongshu, Secretary -General of the Federation, said that according to the estimates of the Export data of the General Administration of Customs, the annual car export volume in 2022 was close to 3 million units, and the export volume surpassed Germany was only a matter of time.

Behind the strong export data is the strong support of the Chinese car company's manufacturing industry chain. Data show that the number of new energy vehicles in China in the first five months of 2022 reached 174,000, an increase of 141%year -on -year. In May, a total of 22,340 Tesla electric vehicles made in China were exported to Europe, Australia, Japan and other markets. From January to May this year, the total export of electric vehicles in the Tesla China factory reached 9,6214, and the export volume of 36,753 vehicles in the same period last year was 36,753.

In terms of independent brands, BYD's sales data released on July 3 shows that the cumulative sales volume of 646,399 units from January to June 2022, a cumulative increase of 162%year -on -year, of which new energy vehicles were sold for 64,1350 units, a cumulative increase of 314.9%year -on -year. In the first half of this year, this year The cumulative sales of BYD new energy vehicles have exceeded the whole year of last year.

As of July 4, Weilai, ideal, Xiaopeng and other "new forces" have released data delivery data for half a year. From January to June, Weilai delivered 50,827 new cars, a year -on -year increase of 21.1%. Xiaopeng delivered a total of 6,8983 units in the first half of the year, which was 2.2 times the accumulated delivery of the same period last year. The ideal in the second quarter was delivered to 28687 units, an increase of 63.2%year -on -year. In the context of China's recent launch of new energy vehicle consumption stimulus policies, the China Automobile Association predicts that the national new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million units in 2022, an increase of 42%year -on -year. ▲

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