Global development dilemma and prospects of the post -epidemic era

The US "Foreign Policy" magazine recently published an article "Deading Globalization and its danger" saying that now, a new "de -globalization" consensus has formed in the Western world. Some people think that globalization is moving towards a bad ending. With the continuous spread of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic at the global level, the globalization process has been the biggest impact of the World War II. In fact, the crisis of globalization has been revealed before the epidemic that the epidemic can be regarded as the "catalyst" of this crisis. The long -rooted global problems, the current unpredictable international situation, and the influx of "anti -globalization" from dark flow to sharp raging, etc., have brought unprecedented resistance and obstacles to the current globalization process. So, what kind of development dilemma is facing the current process of globalization? What kind of social contradictions in Western countries are reflected behind "against globalization"? Where should the globalization road in the post -epidemic era go? In order to explore these issues, this article sorted out the academic views and interviewed relevant scholars.

Globalization process is blocked

The Associate Professor of Public Policy of the Blavanik Government College of Oxford, the University of Oxford, Thomas Hale and Durun University Professor David Held, pointed out in an article that the order after World War II was written in an article. Benefiting from a basic and benign international system cycle. In this cycle, the deepening globalization has made deeper international cooperation inevitable. The number of international institutions and its branches has increased from hundreds of in 1950 to more than 7,000 today.

As the proposal of the concept of "embedded liberalism", John Ruggie said that it was the economic miracle that was able to maintain an economic miracle by "embedding" the global economy in a domestic regulatory and global governance system. However, Heier and Herd pointed out that this system runs well to some extent. As more and more countries with diversified demand have joined the global economic system, reaching consensus becomes more difficult than ever. Global issues have begun to complicate, and the way of interdependence between nations needs to make in -depth adjustments. The ending with it is that many international institutions have fallen into stagnation and fragmentation, and global governance is in trouble.

The American political news website "Politico" said that the vigorous development of globalization over the years has now ushered in a new reality that has suffered huge setbacks. The new coronary pneumonia's epidemic has achieved the failed to do the protectionism promoted by the United States, and it has also achieved what the anti -global advocate has failed to do it for decades. The impact of the epidemic popularity on globalization has prompted politics of various countries to urgently seek new solutions. A few years ago, the political efforts to reshape global trade were reshaped again and again in the political slogan of focusing on the interests of exporters and workers, calling for "better global agreements", strengthening environmental and labor protection, and adhering to fair trade. However, from the White House to the major business schools from the White House, the theme of the debate is no longer globalization to how much the globalization has promoted "trade fairness" or how multinational companies benefit from "operating profits", but the raging of the epidemic is globalization into globalization. What risks and uncertainty are increased.

The article commented that when countries around the world face the sudden shortage of various supplies such as personal protection equipment, medicines to laptops, etc., this epidemic shows the world's nakedness of the world's basic products, especially the dependence on products from China Essence The interruption of the global supply chain is no longer the content of the economics textbook, but a matter of life and death in front of it.

In the new seasons of "Politico" focusing on the special interview with globalization, "vulnerability" replaced "efficiency" and became the keywords in the mouth of business leaders and economists. Adegoke Oke, deputy professor of Kerry Business School of Arizona State University, compares the global supply chain to a tug of war: If a participant falls down, others in the team may fall down - The weak link actually determines the strength of the chain. "In the past, we have always taught students how to optimize the supply chain and reduce costs, with a period of maximum supply chain efficiency. Over the years, many companies around the world have a lot of experience in reducing costs. When encountering sudden pressure, the supply chain will become very fragile. "

Tom Dusterberg, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, believes: "The new crown pneumonia's epidemic is done like laser, which makes people pay attention to this issue, and 70%of the world's port entering port was affected by it. It turns out that the global supply chain is very fragile and must make it more flexible. The effective way of rejuvenating 'recovery "is to transfer the multinational production of key products back to the country, but this is undoubtedly not conducive to the globalization process."

Heer and Herd pointed out with sharp writing: "Today, our ability to manage globalization is constantly shrinking. This consequences are serious. We are unable to control the financial crisis from 2008 to 2009. Family wealth and millions of jobs; we have not established full guarantee measures to prevent the outbreak of the next crisis; our fragile international refugee system has failed to reduce the pain of millions of people who have left due to conflicts. The international community has made some progress in slowing the global climate change, but the severe drought, floods, storms and fires that are still frequent around the world highlight that we still have a long way to go. "

Desting globalization has led to economic recession Heier and Held pointed out that because a series of global issues failed to deal with timely treatment, it caused one after another "de -globalization" wave and protest movement. The domestic foundation that survives the world's order has been attacked, and the international system has been further weakened -this is a self -enhancement deadlock, and the deadlock in turn has reduced the ability to manage globalization and deal with global problems. A large part of the world's population has been affected.

Kerry Brown, director of the Chinese Research Institute of King London, said in an interview with this reporter that in recent years, some global resistances believe that globalization has led to the dispersion of national power. In order to participate in the globalization system, all countries have to give up some sovereignty. In their opinion, globalization has a general erosion and restriction on sovereignty in various countries, especially in western powers that dominate international affairs.

The US "Foreign Policy" magazine analyzes that with the chaos and crises at the global level, a new voice is formed in the world's developed economies: it is time to go globalization. These countries advocate more stringent control of the border, establish a so -called elastic closed supply chain, pursue self -sufficiency in key technologies, and implement trade sanctions to their opponents regardless of global trade rules ... However, globalization also has its own cost and danger. As a result, there are many consequences such as rising inflation to labor shortage, from the rise of protectionism to the pressure on the global financial system. The world needs strong measures to curb this momentum and help governments in some countries return to the right track from extreme division.

Over the past 40 years, globalization has played an important role in controlling inflation. Multinational enterprises cut costs by reducing inventory by multinational enterprises through more detailed supply chains, cheap local procurement, and use of time -sharing production, which has maintained a decline in the price of most consumer products in the case of soaring global demand. Free trade has also forced domestic companies to lower prices and compete with imported products. From 1980 to 2010, the opening of local markets in China, India and other countries to double the global economy has doubled the scale of global labor. The resulting competition limits the wage growth of developed economies. Although the stagnation of wages in the United States or Europe is not worth celebrating, it objectively suppress inflation pressure.

According to the "Foreign Policy" magazine, however, the current trend of de -globalization has exacerbated inflation, especially in the United States. A few years ago, the Trump administration's trade tariff policy pushed up the prices of local wood, steel, solar panels, etc. in the United States. Subsequently, the new coronary pneumonia's epidemic caused the factory's closure, strict border restrictions, and the service economy almost paralyzed ... All of them increased inflation pressure. In addition, it is necessary to carefully review and criticize Western trade and financial sanctions on Russia. Western banks frozen Russia's central bank foreign exchange assets and Russia has also been banned from importing most Western goods. These actions will force some countries in the global network to develop to the introverted economic model, "allowing most parts of the world to benefit from global trade" benign. The governance rules will be further weakened. Strict economic sanctions on Russia disrupted global energy and food supply and accelerated the rise in fuel and food prices around the world. The consumer price index in March 2022 increased by 8.5%compared with the same period in 2021, the highest since 1981. In view of the uncertainty of Russian oil and natural gas supply, Europe's inflation rate is almost the same as that of the United States, and it may rise rapidly in the short term. The central banks of European countries are considering increasing interest rates to suppress prices, which may lead to a new round of economic recession. Many Asian countries urgently hope that the United States will take new measures in trade to respond to the global crisis, but the United States is advocating industrial return.

Reverse globalization reflects the capitalist crisis

As the sound of globalization rose one after another, the upgraded version of "against globalization" swept up. In recent years, "against globalization" has become familiar in Europe and the United States. The discussion on its roots and essence has also become a major research focus in the academic community. Scholars generally believe that "anti -globalization" reflects the economic interests between the contradictions of the western developed countries. Some so -called "global losers" blame the cause of its failure as the uneven distribution of global dividends.

According to the World Bank report, the globalization of more than 40 years has caused the wealth of the top 1%of the top 1%of the top 1%of the wealth of multinational corporate executives and Wall Street Bank giants. On the one hand, this situation allows the upper and Chinese strata of developed countries to continue to seize huge profits in the process of globalization, and on the other hand, it has led to the more and more resistant to white conservative party such as the abandoned worker class.

In the best -selling book "The Tragedy of the Rural People", J. D. Vance refers to the "most pessimistic group of the United States" in the white American workers. Under the background of the increasingly declining era of the US "Rust Zone" manufacturing industry under the impact of economic globalization, he revealed the despair and weakness of the wage earners of the zone in the face of reality with personal experience. The book pointed out that the living conditions of the "rust zone" group are no different from the underlying black group. "What is more terrible than poverty is to lose hope." The author described it in this way. Under the increasingly imbalanced wealth differentiation pattern, the dissatisfaction of white and civilians in the southern United States has gradually accumulated and broke out. Social cracks that are difficult to fit have caused "political polarization".

"If the workers of the" Rust Ribronic Zone "have never lost their jobs or have not arrears mortgage loans, what will happen to President Trump's election prospects that year? If the refugee crisis has not erupted in Europe, how much is the possibility of Brexit?" Heir? Ask Herd in the text. The two pointed out that in the face of frustrated globalization, some extreme ethnicists will naturally respond to try to re -seek control from national sovereignty. Such a political ecology has made nationalist politicians and populist leaders succeed. Global issue expert Dani Rodrik once said that a wise government can use this opportunity to monitor globalization more effectively. However, the fact is that these "successful" leaders often reject global cooperation and opening up, and they are not willing to explore effective solutions. This often exacerbates the political illness that originally allowed them to take advantage of it and help them to board the "altar".

Javiel Vadell, a professor of international relations at the Catholic University of Monasglas, Brazil, explained to reporters from the perspective of global expansion of capitalist production. Adverse consequences of regulation. The globalization formed for a long time is essentially new liberal globalization led by developed capitalist countries in Europe and the United States, and the governance of financial freedom is dominated by Western hegemony, US dollar, and international private capital. Essence At present, the "polarization effect" of capitalism is creating more suffering and inequality in developed western society. While accelerating the global "anti -globalization" process, the epidemic has also exposed serious social problems in Western society. Popularists were able to come to power to reflect the institutional crisis and social contradictions in the capitalist society. With the era of the monocular world, global capitalism is in the process of decline and depletion. At the end of the 20th century and the 21st century, the imperialist (also known as "monopoly capitalism" or "modern capitalism") in the United States was the last stage of capitalism. Its interference in the form of other domestic politics from the subtle "mixed war" It evolved into a direct war represented by the Afghan war. The overall rise of emerging countries marks profound changes in the international system, but it does not mean that unilateralism and imperialist tendencies have completely ended.

Improve global governance as the right path

Despite many obstacles, people must acknowledge that globalization is the general trend. In the global system that is highly integrated and connected, no country or region can be alone.

"Under the current challenges such as intensive epidemic diseases and frequent disasters such as human beings, if there are no in -depth cooperation between countries and commitments to globalization, many problems shared by humans cannot be resolved. Although many regions around the world are There are many de -globalized institutions and organizations that emphasize local autonomy and autonomous expression rights. I think that the global trend should not or should not escape for most people. Still rely on allies and global networks as before, "Brown said.

Her and Herd said that making global governance is important, it will be a challenge for several years. The spread of global governance into an impasse and against globalization shows that we cannot understand this trend from a single country alone. In a world of interdependence, to truly "strengthen the national sovereignty of a country", it is necessary to better manage globalization at the international level. What is exciting is that we have seen the path of change -whether it is a large city that organizes multinational activities to cope with climate change, or a local community that welcomes immigrants and refugees. Different actors are designing a new method of solving global challenges. The Paris Agreement and the UN sustainable development goals made humans focus on long -term projects. If you can find a more novel way on the basis of these positive trends to consolidate the consensus of globalization, and realize the real interest sharing, the foundation of against globalization will be weakened. But if this attempt fails, the vicious circle of "adverse globalization" rebound will continue to rise in spiral.

As Engels said, "No huge historical disaster is not compensated by historical progress." Ian Goldin, a professor at the University of Oxford's globalization and development, concluded that humans should see opportunities in the current chaos and uncertainty, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic creates a critical moment. Although the future is dark and unknown, grasping this historic moment can reverse the trend and reshape the destiny of individuals and collectives. We need to move along the way to a better world.

Source: China Social Science Network-Journal of Social Sciences of China

Author: Bai Le

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