Full a box of oil or spend 12.5 yuan less. The institution is expected to have a downlink space in the future.

Jimu Journalist Zeng Lingzheng

The international oil price has continued to rise since the beginning of the year, driving the retail price of domestic refined oil by 10 times, and only one time in April.

Recently, due to the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and market concerns about economic recession, international oil prices fell 5%. The agency estimates that on the evening of June 28, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window was opened, and the price will be reduced. According to the fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will spend 12.5 yuan for a box of oil.

Some analysts said that in the future, the international oil market favorable and negative information confrontation, and the next round of domestic refined oil retail price adjustment may be stranded. However, some analysts believe that the current international oil prices fluctuate greatly, and there is still possibility of falling in the future.

The retail price of domestic refined oil will be reduced

At 24:00 on June 28, the new round of refined oil price adjustment windows will be opened. The institution predicts that the price of refined oil products will show a "sharp decline" market, which will usher in the second downgrade of the year. After the Grand Commodity Information Agency, Jinlianchuang is expected to be opened in this round of price adjustment window, domestic gasoline prices will be reduced by 320 yuan/ton, equivalent to 0.25 yuan/liter at 92 gasoline prices, and 0.27 yuan/liter of gasoline prices 95.

The price adjustment window is the scope of the price adjustment setting of domestic refined oil based on changes in international crude oil prices. When the average price change of crude oil for 10 consecutive working days in the international market is more than 4%, the price of domestic refined oil can be adjusted accordingly. Once this condition is reached, it is called opening the "price adjustment window".

Since 2022, the domestic refined oil price price situation

Jin Lianchuang Analyst Ma Jiancai told Jimu Journalist that during this round of pricing cycle (June 14th to June 28th), international crude oil prices fell, and US economic prospects were not good. Investors would affect interest rate hikes. The concerns of demand prospects continue to heat up. In addition, the United States intends to introduce policies to crack down on high oil prices, and the trend of crude oil continues to fall. However, at the end of the valuation cycle, the technical side rebounded after the oil price fell sharply. Because the Seven Kingdoms Group (the United States, Britain, Germany, France, etc.) said that it would impose more sanctions on Russia, a large country producing country, and the market is concerned that emotions will promote rising crude oil to rise continuously.

"Although the trend of crude oil rebounded at the end of the valuation cycle, the change rate of crude oil in this round of crude oil continued to extend, so the domestic retail price will usher in the" second fall "during the year. In the ten working days, the average price of reference to crude oil was 113.03 US dollars/barrel, and the change rate was -5.56%, of which gasoline was reduced by 320 yuan/ton, diesel-down 310 yuan/ton, a discount price of 89#0.24 yuan, 92#0.25 yuan , 95#0.27, 0#0.26 yuan. In terms of gasoline, according to a small car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will spend 12.5 yuan for a box of oil; in terms of diesel, according to the fuel tank capacity of 160L, it will be calculated. The box oil will spend 41.6 yuan less. "Ma Jiancai said.

International crude oil price trend

Regarding the next trend of oil prices, Ma Jiancai believes that the current crude oil news is good for the factors. In the short term, the price trend may continue to sway. The next price adjustment window period is 24:00 on July 12, and the new round of retail price adjustment direction is unclear.

There is still room for decline in international oil prices in the future

Domestic refined oil prices are linked to a number of international crude oil varieties. Since this year, due to the conflict of Russia and Ukraine, the export of crude oil exports in Russia produced by major oil -producing countries has decreased. Lente crude oil futures) The price continued to rise. On June 8th, the price of WTI and Brent rose above $ 123. However, the Federal Reserve ’s sharp interest rate hike coupled with global inflation, the market is empty and global economic prospects and crude oil demand, and oil prices have fallen in late June. As of press time recently, the price of WTI and Brent was $ 110.75 and $ 112.33, respectively, up 49%and 42%from the beginning of the year.

Li Yan, an analyst of the commodity information agency Longzhong Information Agency, believes that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a slight downward trend. But this drop may not affect the retail price of domestic refined oil. "At present, the pressure on Russia's sanctions on Russia has not diminished and the peak of summer travel in the United States has brought good support. The probability of littering the price of oil is higher. "Li Yan said.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Han Zhengji analyzed that from the perspective of micro -supply and demand, there were insufficient supply of concern and increased demand to boost oil prices. OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) is less than expected, Russia's sanctions increase, and Iran nuclear negotiations and other factors have led to continuous tightening of supply. In addition, market demand prospects are optimistic, the peak season in the northern hemisphere has begun, and the new championship control in Shanghai is over. China's fuel demand is expected to be stronger. But on the other hand, the global macro economy is not dazzling. As investors' concerns about demand once occupied the market leading position, oil prices have fallen sharply before, and have fallen from high in recent years. Many central banks around the world have followed interest rate hikes, and economic recession will affect the rising concerns of the growth of energy demand. In addition, high oil prices have also affected demand growth prospects to a certain extent.

"Recently, international crude oil prices have shown a wide range of shocks as a whole, and the fluctuations are large. In addition, the technical surface of the oil price is still downward, and there is still possible." Han Zhengji believes.

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