Xu Yiyi et al.: Overseas inflation is mainly affected by refined oil instead of crude oil prices

Zhongxin Jingwei June 27th. Question: Overseas countries inflation is mainly affected by refined oil instead of crude oil prices

Author Xu Yiyi Guojin Securities Research Institute Analysts

Analyst of Chen Lulou Guojin Securities Research Institute

Through the monitoring of the price of refined oil products in the United States and Singapore, it can be prominently discovered that the price center of Asia and Europe and the United States has maintained a high level for nearly 2 months. At the same time, the author has found that through the monitoring of key countries in Europe and the United States and Southeast Asia, it is found that the current key countries currently During the period of maintenance of refined oil prices, there was no significant decline in the high level, but it continued to maintain exceeding expected growth, and this trend showed significant seasonal characteristics. Therefore, the author believes that the price of high refined oil products has not inhibited the demand for travel consumption.

Figure 1 American refined oil and crude oil prices

Figure 2 American refined oil and crude oil prices (the beginning of the year to the present)

Figure 3 The increase in the price of American refined oil and crude oil

Through comparison, the increase in the price of refined oil in major areas and the increase in crude oil prices can be found significantly. The current increase in the price of refined oil products far exceeds the increase in crude oil prices, thereby driving the continuous expansion of the price difference between refined oil. In this scenario, because the oil products of direct consumption of residents are dominated by refined oil products, the core factors of the current significant inflation in Europe and the United States and Southeast Asian countries are not completely led by crude oil, and they are more significant due to the soaring oil prices.

Therefore, the author believes that the current market is based on the analysis of changes in demand or inflation based on crude oil prices. Through the monitoring and analysis of high -frequency travel intensity of 12 key countries in Europe and the United States and Southeast Asia, it has been found that the intensity of Southeast Asia and Europe and the United States continued to recover from expectations. The intensity of key countries has not been affected, and it still continues the significant seasonal growth characteristics.

Picture 4

Figure 5 Poor price difference between refined oil fissure in the United States (the beginning of the year to the present)

At the same time, the author can find out that the price of refined oil products in the United States and Singapore and the price of refined oil products can be found more significantly, and the price increase of refined oil is far more than the increase in crude oil prices, and the price difference between refined oil fissure continues to reach a record high. Oil products are dominated by refined oil, and the main influencing factors of overseas countries are the sharp increase in the price of refined oil instead of being completely led by crude oil. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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