By 2050 low hydrocarbon demand may reach 50 million tons/year

According to a rig report on June 13, recently, Wood Mackenzie, a global research and consulting company, said that by 2050, the demand for low hydrogen in the global oil refining industry may reach 50 million tons/year.

The field of refining is one of the largest markets in hydrogen energy. It accounts for about 32 million tons/year in 2020, accounting for 30%to 35%of global hydrogen demand. Hydrogen treatment and hydrogen clearance are the main refining processes that consume more than 90%of hydrogen in the refining industry, which are used to reduce the sulfur content in the finished product and increase the output of transportation fuel.

However, more than 65%of the hydrogen demand in the refining process is met by catalytic reorganization and hydrogen provided by the catalytic reorganization and ethylene cracking by by -products; this is unlikely to be replaced by low bicheds. Any shortage of hydrogen can be solved by reorganization of gas -based steam methane and coal destinations. These two methods account for about 32%of the hydrogen demand for refineries.

Wood McCanz's research director Gutta said that if low carbon is costly competitive, and the support of the shift policy over time is continuously developed, low -carbon carbide may replace special hydrogen as raw materials. By 2050, the potential global market size of low hydrocarbons in this field may reach 10 million tons/year, which will reduce carbon emissions of global -range 1 and range 2 and reduce 10%or 100 million tons per year. He added, but the real change is to replace stone fuels in the combustion application to generate calories and steam. This will provide a larger market for low hydrogen in refining. By 2050, the potential market size will reach 40 million tons/year, and carbon emissions will be reduced by 300 million tons/year, about 25%. Therefore, by 2050, the potential demand for low hydrocarbons in the refining industry may be as high as 50 million tons/year.

In order to further decarbon, oil refineers will have to consider more low -carbon technology, such as electric heating, carbon, major carbon emission facilities, and storage, and biomass gasification. Refining companies will have to use renewable energy to use low -carbon raw materials and products. The combination of these solutions needs to solve this complex problem.

In order to make low hydrogen hydrogen and special fossil fuel hydrogen competitive, cost and high carbon prices need to be reduced. Cost is important because hydrogen production accounts for 10%to 25%of the variable operating costs of refining plants. In addition, high carbon prices and related emissions punishment may become the main driving force from fossil fuel hydrogen to low hydrocarbon.

In the current situation where natural gas/liquefied natural gas is high and fluctuated, and after geopolitical conflict, green hydrogen is cheaper than fossil fuel -based gray hydrogen. Therefore, there are market opportunities to diversify the source of hydrogen supply to reduce emissions and support energy security.

In the case of combustion applications, higher thermal values ​​and lower emissions make low hydrogen hydrogen a attractive alternative. Although burning provides a larger market, low hydrocarbon needs to achieve lower costs, or require higher carbon prices to compete in the field of combustion, rather than competing with special hydrogen.

Assuming that the price of commodity commodities is restored to the level driven by long -term fundamental factors, by the beginning of the 1930s, it is necessary to make low hydrocarbons in the field of refining and combustion. Essence In addition, in the long run, the cost of green hydrogen must be less than $ 1.5 per kilogram in order to compete with the combustion of natural gas and fuel.

In addition to the decline in the cost of low hydrocarbons, higher carbon prices, fiscal incentives, and more powerful policy support will be a necessary condition for accelerating the refining industry. The national specialized hydrogen planning will help increase the penetration rate of low hydrogen in many industries.

Gupta said that from the perspective of cost and emissions, in the long run, refining is more likely to move towards green hydrogen instead of blue hydrogen. However, countries with low -cost natural gas resources and carbon sealing capabilities will have the opportunity to enter the blue hydrogen market. The replacement economy of low hydrocarbons depends largely on the prices of coal, natural gas, carbon and renewable energy. Therefore, the specific application scenarios of refineries and the country must be very specific.

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