Why did the ticket price rising against the trend?

With the resumption of work in various cities in China, and travel across regions, the total number of flights has not increased significantly, and it is possible to promote further proceeds on ticket prices.

The depth and continuity of the impact of the new coronary pneumonia's epidemic on the civil aviation industry are far exceeded that the price of air tickets is much lower than the previous level. However, since late May, some route tickets have increased price increases, which has attracted attention. Why is the recent ticket prices rising?

One of the reasons is the connection effect of subsidies. Beginning on May 21, the Ministry of Finance and the Civil Aviation Administration implemented financial subsidies for domestic passenger flight operations. According to the policy, when the number of domestic passenger flights is lower or equal to 4,500 classes every Sunday, fiscal subsidies are started. The subsidy standard is to subsidize the amount of losses after the actual income deduction of domestic passenger flights.

Compared with the sluggish market in April, since May, the demand for the aviation market has been recovering, and the number of flights has gradually increased. The market continues to improve in June, and the average daily 4,500 classes are equivalent to the "total control". In the case of travel demand "in short supply", air ticket prices have risen.

If the aviation market has deteriorated due to sudden factors such as the epidemic market, the average 4,500 shifts per day are below 75%of the guest rate. Continue to fly without losing the book, which also has the confidence of the fare for the airline.

After 10 days of cash subsidies for the operation of domestic passenger flights, on May 30, the Civil Aviation Administration issued a notice that the "4,500 Class Conservation subsidy" policy was suspended for a week from June 4 to June 10. Some people in the industry predict that if the average daily flight volume after 10 days does not exceed 4,500 classes, the cash subsidy of the guarantee will still be issued in accordance with the original standard; if there are more than 4,500 classes, the cash subsidy will be suspended. Whether the cash subsidy is to be suspended is the main measure of whether to exceed the volume of flights of 4,500 average daily.

From the current volume of flights, the market is gradually recovering. On June 20, the number of passenger flights for the National Aviation Aviation had been close to 8,000 classes, an increase of 13.9%month -on -month, and the fare level fell, down 42.8%month -on -month. This shows that the subsidy policy and the suspension of subsidy policies have played a role in restoring flight operations and restoring market regulation, respectively, and effectively drove the confidence of industry entities.

Another reason is the impact of fuel surcharges. On February 5 this year, the airline resumed the fuel surcharge of domestic routes again. Each passenger below 800 kilometers (inclusive) was charged 10 yuan per passenger, and the passengers above 800 kilometers were charged 20 yuan. With the continuous rise in oil prices and the fifth linkage of fuel surcharge fees, on June 5, each passenger of more than 800 kilometers of routes charged 140 yuan, which was 7 times the beginning of the year. Based on the average fare of 800 yuan, the total fare of the fuel surcharge and the civil aviation construction fund was 990 yuan, an increase of 23.75%. With the resumption of work in various cities in China, traveling across regions, the demand recovery and fuel surcharges are superimposed to each other. When the total number of flights has not increased significantly, the price of ticket prices may be further up.

Looking forward to this summer, under the premise of relatively stable epidemic, airlines may increase capacity. In the case of not getting a flight subsidy, in order to compete for the source of the customer, the ticket price of the Communist flights is expected to be reduced, and on the exclusive route, the ticket price may still be firm.

(Author Han Tao is a researcher at the Research Department of the China Aviation Transport Association)

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