It's hard to find a machine!In addition to electric blankets, this product has also burst into orders in Europe. Why is it hot?

29.09.2022

Number of this text: 3126, reading time is about 6 minutes.

Guide: "If European consumers want to buy heat pump now, I may need to wait for more than a year to pick up the goods."

Author | First Finance Kang Kai Feng Difan

The European Energy Crisis has intensified the cold winter, allowing the heating home appliances to get on the air.

In addition to the cheap electric blanket, the relatively high -priced heat pump has also burst in Europe. "Our orders have been lined up very long, it is really too busy!" Yuan Zai, the general manager of the German Dream Dream Capital, said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter that if European consumers now want to buy heat pumps, they want to buy heat pumps, and I may need to wait for more than a year to pick up the goods. It is simply "a machine difficult to find". From this perspective, the thermal pump market has become a "seller market". In the entire business model, "producers possess the maximum right to speak."

She told reporters that consumers in Europe, Norway, Denmark and other Nordic countries like to buy heat pumps. Now Germany, France, and Italian consumers have increased their interest in heat pumps. Buy heat pump.

It is worth noting that if the price of natural gas is high is a short -term factor affecting consumers' purchases. From the mid -to -the -long term, the carbon neutralization policy promoted by the European Union will support the development of the heat pump industry in a long term.

Luo Anyang, chief analyst of Cinda Securities ’s appliance industry, said in a recent research report that the European Union plans to launch a 565 billion euro energy plan, which once again clarifies the long -term logic of the heat pump and plans to install 10 million heat pumps in the next 5 years.

Affected by this, A -share thermal pump concept stocks have continued to rise. Wind data shows that on September 29, the energy outbound index was reported at 2527.32 points, up 14.06%this year. The air energy heat pump index was reported at 2382.32 points, which has risen 6.55%this year.

Why does the heat pump sell in Europe?

Since the middle of last year, Yuan Zai realized that the heat pump had a "fire" in Europe. This year's extreme weather continued, and the energy crisis intensified, exacerbating the hot market of heat pumps.

Source: China Home Electric Association website

According to data from the European heat pump association (EHPA), in 2021, 2.18 million heat pumps sold in 21 countries in Europe, an increase of nearly 560,000 units over 2020. Among them, France, Germany, and Italy account for nearly 50%of the annual sales. In addition, the total number of heat pumps installed in the European Union reached 16.98 million units, accounting for about 14%of the heating market.

What needs to be explained is that although the name of the heat pump has a "hot" word, it does not directly produce heat, just "hot porter".

The heat pump unit can absorb heat from the nature and "carry" the heat pump to obtain thermal energy that can be used for production and life. But do n’t look at this porter, the thermal efficiency of the heat pump can usually reach 300%to 400%, that is, 1 degree of electricity at least 3 to 4 degrees of electricity, which is a little higher than the thermal efficiency of direct heating electric water heater and other equipment. Be more polluting. Therefore, the heat pump has been widely favored by governments and consumers in recent years.

Source: Amazon website screenshot

At the same time, considering the high price of natural gas in Europe, the heat pump has become a heating product with a clear trend of early investment but a long -term penetration rate increase.

In Germany, 65%of winter heating, including family heating and other national heating, uses natural gas. According to the European Electric Power Exchange data, the average price of the European power system on August 30 was 462.1 euros/MWh time, an increase of 6 times from the beginning of the year. , An increase of 5 times compared to the beginning of the year.

Yuan Zai said that in terms of purchase and installation fees, heat pumps are more expensive. For example, in its product line, a heat pump covering about 9 kilowatts is about 9,000 euros, but in the context of high gas and high electricity prices, if the heat pump 5 is used 5 ～ 6 years, overall counting is cheaper than using traditional heating equipment such as air conditioners and water heaters.

According to Luo Anyang's calculation, in the 80 -square -meter room, the actual heating area of ​​48 square meters as an example, according to the electricity price of 0.2 euros per kilowatt -hour in Germany last year, if the heat pump is used throughout the winter, the heating cost will be 664 euros per year/year Essence If traditional natural gas heating methods are taken, the cost required is about 1126 euros. Based on this, the use of heat pumps can save about 462 euros per year.

"Also based on a family of 3 people, each person is 60 liters of thermal water per day. The heat water heating demand is the basic situation of heating from 15 degrees to 55 degrees from room temperature to 55 degrees. The electricity bills required will cost 613 euros and 416 euros respectively; if the air -source heat pump water heater is used, the annual hot water and electricity costs will cost 153 euros, which will save more than 260 to 400 euros over expenses. "Luo Anyang told First Financial reporter.

Subsidies are another factor in the current European heat pump market, which highlights the EU's consideration of energy security issues.

Luo Anyang introduced the First Financial Reporter that at present, it can be seen that European countries, the EU Renewable Energy Association, and the European heat pump association are discussing how Europe is out of the energy crisis. Two of them are electronic projects, one is the heat pump, and the other is the other. It is new energy, which means that the heat pump is in Europe "is a core electric equipment, which is the strategic position of the heat pump." "The logic of subsidies provided by the government is more from the perspective The use of natural gas has reduced dependence on Russia from the demand side. For example, the EU's repowreu plan may save 12 billion cubic meters of natural gas for the European Union. "Luo Anyang further explained. idea."

According to the estimation of Dada Securities, if it is calculated at 40%of the German subsidy standards and the price of the electric pump is about 7 years according to the price of the electricity fee in 2021. "If European gas prices and electricity prices remain high in the next few years, they may be able to return to the book in less than 3 years." Luo Anyang analyzed.

Chinese heat pump European hot sales

The increase in European heat pump demand has greatly increased, allowing some Chinese companies to stand up.

According to data from the China Family Electric Association, China is currently the largest country in the import of air source heat pumps in Europe, accounting for 60%. Among them, many countries have exploded, and in the first half of the year, the exports to Bulgaria, Poland, Italy, and Spain increased by 614%, 373%, 198%, and 71%. From the perspective of Luo Anyang, the supply chain of the Chinese heat pump industry is relatively strong, which is an important reason why it can seize European business opportunities.

From 2019-2021, the market size of the air source heat pump, unit 100 million yuan (data source: "China Thermal Pump Industry Development Report (2022)")

He believes that Chinese companies are more flexible and have a faster response in expanding and adjusting the supply chain.

"The demand for heat pump suddenly appeared in Europe, and it was faster, which caused most of the European supply chains and production capacity to keep up. At this time, the advantages of Chinese domestic manufacturers in manufacturing and supply chain are obvious." He said, "We said," We us, we said, "We we said," We us, we said, "We said," We us, we said, "Our us The core advantage is the supply chain advantage. "

At the same time, domestic enterprises have comparative advantages in terms of price. Luo Anyang believes that "in terms of local situations in Europe, it is estimated that at least 30%of the price advantage is estimated", the price difference is now in terms of raw materials and human costs.

German dreamers have factories in both domestic and Germany, and local factories in southern Germany have given the company a more obvious comparative advantage.

"Many installedrs are our customers, and they have been in line for a long time. In terms of supply, we are counting fast (the reason) is that we have deployed in advance in the factory output." She explained that if some supply chains are longer Competitors, their delivery time has been ranked until next year.

"Our domestic factories belong to the part of the ecological chain of large technology companies. Through this ecological chain network, the suppliers we can cover in China can be thousands or even tens of thousands of. The room for business is very big. For example, who is the best and the cheapest, this is very clear. Therefore, we can choose the price of high -quality raw material products. "She said.

"In Germany, all our heat pump products are produced in accordance with German standards. In addition, we also have logistics advantages. We have our own assembly line and are still expanding. Subsequently, we can use semi -finished products produced in China. At the same time, we can at the same time. There is also your own logistics system. If you import the finished products directly from the country, you can directly send it to the warehouse to transfer. By the logistics system, we can better grasp the supply process of the product. "Yuan Zai said further.

"For raw material costs and labor costs, in terms of comprehensive, domestic production must be better than producing in Germany." She explained that "the cost -effective supply chain is a very important weapon that we may win throughout the European market in the future. ","

In the context of "one machine is difficult to find", who can ship who can seize the market share.

Yuan Zai said that according to her estimation, after the factory expands in China, the production capacity cycle of heat pump products may be shortened to more than two months.

What we want to see is that although China has increased sharply on European heat pump products, the first financial reporter compared the hot pump products on the market, although European and American brands are still selling well in Europe. The ranking of home appliances website Pickhvac shows that the best heat pump brands in 2022 are mostly from the United States and Europe.

"The entire process of the production and sales of heat pumps is that heat pump companies are looking for channels in Europe, and channel vendors will connect terminal consumers again." Yuan Zai explained to the First Financial reporter, "For local customers in Europe, they prefer local brands Because this involves a series of processes such as installation and after -sales. "

"The heat pump cannot be bought and inserted, and it can be plugged in. The difficulty lies in its service. It is a product of very heavy service. It is very important after sales. The heat pump was carried at home, "he didn't know how to deal with it."

最终，德国客户可能会在选择时，“多花费三分之一的差价，但买了个放心，这样未来的服务就有可能有所保障。国内热泵企业当然可以去海外做渠道，但是他们就It must be expanded by overseas market teams, which is also a lot of expenses, "she explained.

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