New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) fell 4.65%

On Wednesday (September 28), the Asia -Pacific stock market killed the entire line, and the A -share Shanghai and Shenzhen cities shocked down all day. The anti -pumping intensity of the market was weak. The strong foreign investment in the morning was strongly killed for some track weights. As of the closing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 1.58%to 3045.07 points, hitting a new low in this round, the GEM index fell 2.57%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.63%; 100 million yuan.

New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) fell 4.65%

Analysis of the cause of the decline: The expected heating up interest rate hikes in the United States, and the 10 -year US debt yield rose by 4%, suppressing the technology growth sector

From a historical perspective, the 10 -year US debt yield will lead the federal benchmark interest rate, and the endpoint of interest rates will be slightly higher than the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate. At the September interest rate meeting, the US -related institutions expected the federal fund ratio to the end of 2022 to 4.4%, which was 100bp higher than June.

The 10 -year US debt yield rate has not stopped during the year, and today it also exceeded 4%. The RMB in the shore fell below the 7.24 mark against the US dollar. The scientific and technological growth sector causes suppression.

Outlook on the market:

According to data, it is expected that the new energy retail will be around 580,000 in September, an increase of 73.9%year -on -year, and the penetration rate is about 29.7%. In September, the automobile market was affected by the negative public health prevention and control, and it began to recover one after another. On August 31, the relevant departments also mentioned "promoting large consumption such as cars", and actively responded to and issued a new round of subsidy policies to help sell sprints at the end of the month, which played a continuous role in the auto market.

September to October is the peak season of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the new models of various car companies are launched densely, and the pricing strategy of new models is more positive. It is expected that new orders will be recovered in the fourth quarter. The sales plan in 2023 is clear. At the same time, pessimistic expectations of overseas policies have been fully reflected. Europe will further increase the support of the electric vehicle industry, and it is expected to recover in 2023.

On September 26, the relevant departments issued the "Announcement on Continuing the Purchase Tax Policy for New Energy Vehicles for Vehicle Purchase Tax". The purchase date from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023 Purchase tax. The policy level of new energy vehicles exempt taxation tax is continued until the end of next year. The continuous launch of the central government's new energy vehicle consumption support policy is expected to promote the continuous high growth of new energy vehicles.

The new energy vehicle sector has been adjusted more in recent months. The current CSI New Energy Vehicle Index is 38 times PE valuation, which is fully priced in the above worrying factors. It also matches the expected profit growth rate of the next few years. Although it will still be suppressed by overseas liquidity, the sector will It has the value of security margins and medium- and long -term investment.

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