"Beixi" was broken, and the A -share section was boiling!How long does the influence last?

Zhongxin Jingwei, September 28 (Dong Xiangyi) European energy "great arteries" were cut off.

On September 27, local time, the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline suddenly leaked in two places. After confirming the Denmark Energy Agency, the CCP detected 3 in the "Beixi-1" and "Beixi-2" natural gas pipelines. Leaked. Subsequently, Beixi AG, responsible for operating the "Beixi" natural gas pipeline, issued a statement saying that the three branches of Beixi Natural Gas Pipeline suffered "unprecedented" destruction at the same time. The damage was unprecedented.

Affected by the news, on the 27th local time, British natural gas futures rose by more than 33%, and the price price price of the reference natural gas in Europe exceeded 20%.

On the 28th, the A -share gas sector responded to the rise. As of the afternoon closing, AD, Shandong Molong's daily limit, Kaita Gas, Jiufeng Energy, Delong Hui Neng, Shuifa Gas, New Olympic Co., Ltd., Nanjing Public Utilities rose.

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Public information shows that the "Beixi -1" natural gas pipeline was completed in 2011. It starts from Russia Vebao in the east and leads to Germany via the Baltic sea. "Beixi -1" is Russia's main gas pipeline against Europe.

On September 2nd, Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. (Russia) said that due to multiple equipment faults, the "Beixi -1" natural gas pipeline will completely stop the gas transmission until the failure is eliminated.

"Beixi -2" is a cooperative project of Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. and five European companies. It was completed in September 2021. Injusship is completed in December, it can be transported 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas each year. Due to the opposition from the United States and other countries, "Beixi -2" has not been able to obtain operating permits.

On the impact of the Beixi gas pipeline explosion on the A-share gas sector, Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the Institute, told the "V view financial report" (WeChat ID: vg-video), " The impact effect will be very obvious, mainly in the short -term effects. "

Chen Li believes that the biggest impact of the unexpected emergencies is to bring stronger shortage expectations to the upcoming European countries, so the price of natural gas has skyrocketed immediately. At present, the global attention of the energy sector has continued to heat up. In addition to expected prices, energy replacement demand has also risen sharply, and the export data of some insulation products can be manifested.

Huatai Securities believes that if the Beixi incident is upgraded, it will have a structural impact on A shares. First, the overseas stagflation time is prolonged, and the rhythm of midstream and downstream profits will be reduced; The plate is unfavorable. Third, the decline pressure of foreign demand has increased, but European demand is forced to provide an opportunity for domestic manufacturing to produce sea.

Shengang Securities believes that as the European energy crisis intensifies, we continue to pay attention to the two main lines of the petrochemical chemical sector: 1) the upstream and natural gas and oil -oriented sectors that benefit from the rise in oil and gas prices; European production capacity accounts for relatively large vitamins, polyurethane, omeramine, and anti -aging auxiliary sectors.

Guojin Securities analyst Chen Yi believes that the Beixi-1 channel has been shut down in early September, and the situation of natural gas supply has not changed. Since the beginning of September, Russia has stopped the Beixi-1 natural gas transportation. The Beixi-2 pipeline has not been put into operation since the completion of last year. The amount has reached more than 91%, and the gas storage rate of natural gas inventory in Europe is about 88%, but the gas transmission volume of the Pipeline of Beixi -1 at the end of last year from September last year accounted for 15%of the EU imports. The peak demand season has made European natural gas supply uncertain.

Chen Yi believes that in the context of the increase in uncertainties in European natural gas imports, European natural gas prices are expected to maintain a high level. Natural gas is an important raw material for industrial energy and some chemicals in Europe. At present, European production capacity accounted for high varieties such as vitamins, eggine, PVP, MDI, TDI, and tailphenols. The regional price increase of important chemicals in Europe is transmitted to the price increase brought by the world. On the other hand, it can use the advantages of relatively low domestic raw material costs to increase overseas export competitiveness.

In terms of theme configuration, Huatai Securities suggested: In the second half of the year, the global energy supply shock to the demand anti -phase conduction, China's production factors have outstanding advantages, and continue to dig out the direction of relatively competitive margins in A shares: 1) Benefiting from price increase conduction Chemical and agricultural chains, such as chemical fertilizer, breeding, and subsequent cycles; 2) small appliances that benefit from the need for energy storage and oil transportation of demand under the shortage of natural gas; Industry replaced MDI/TDI, papermaking, new energy vehicles, etc. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

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