PVP supply and demand contradictions have exacerbated new open source large earning industrial chain?

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.09.25

Our reporter Xiao Yanqing has intensively investigated the largest domestic polyethylene pyrirol (PVP) supplier of more than 130 institutional investors since September. In the secondary market, the new open source stock price climbed from a low point of 11.01 yuan/share on April 27 to the closing price of 30.51 yuan/share on September 23, an increase of 160.77%, leaving the trend, getting out of its own independent market market Essence On the one hand, the PVP supply is in short supply or even ordering to line up next year; on the other hand, the price of raw materials has fallen, the price of product prices reaches a historical high, and there is still an upward trend. In the window period where the contradiction between supply and demand is increasing, will it usher in the expansion of the industry? The price of the price is high. It is understood that the PVP market is highly concentrated. Germany BASF (BASF), Ashland, and China's new open source are major global suppliers. First, new open source production capacity is third in the world. Xing Xiaoliang, the new opening source director Xing Xiaoliang, told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "The average price of the company's PVP series of products was 50,000 yuan/ton last year. Last year, with the rise in the price of raw materials BDO, the company's product prices gradually increased to today's average price of 80,000 Yuan/ton. This is already the highest price in history. "Choice Financial terminal shows that the price of BDO in 2021 rose sharply, and the mainstream price of the East China market rose to 31,000 yuan/ton. Affected by the weak downstream demand, the price of BDO in 2022 gradually fell to reaching to reaching to the 2022 to gradually fall to reaching to reaching to reaching to reaching to 2022 to the price. In mid -August, the low was 9900 yuan/ton. The recent BDO price rebounded slightly until September 23, the mainstream price was 14,250 yuan/ton. However, the price of PVP did not fall along but climbed upwards. Regarding the cause of rising prices, the industry agreed that on the one hand, the supply of PVP supply of European energy crisis was reduced, and a large number of overseas orders flowed to the country, resulting in tight domestic supply; on the other hand Essence In addition, in addition to the addition of 20,000 tons of production capacity in the second quarter of next year, the short -term industry will not have new production capacity. On September 12, BASF issued an announcement saying that its pre -production GBL device encountered force majeure, which led to a significant reduction in the capabilities of pyrirols and PVP products that they could supply. This has caused a great impact on the global PVP supply market and further exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand. The Guilian Securities Research Report pointed out: "The contradiction between PVP supply and demand in the short term will still intensify, and the price of PVP has room for further upward." Xing Xiaoliang said during the investigation of investor on September 22: "Recently, the company targets the relationship between supply and demand. -30 raised the price of 5%-8%. "The strong downstream demand PVP is a synthetic water-soluble polymer compound, which has collagen protection, film formation, adhesion, hygroscopic, soluble or condensed effects. It is widely used in many modern industries such as the pharmaceutical industry, daily chemical industry, food and electronics industry. Under the "double carbon" goal, PVP ushered in new development opportunities.在新能源领域PVP可用作锂电池电极的分散剂和导电材料加工助剂；在光伏行业，PVP作为分散剂可用于生产高质量的正极银浆用球形银粉、负极银浆用片状银粉以及Nano -silver particles, etc. Guoxin Securities Research Report shows that the China Photovoltaic Association predicts that the highest annual installation of the global photovoltaic market in the next five years can reach 300GW and the maximum of 500GW in 2025. According to the "White Paper (2022)" by EVTANK and Ivey Economic Research Institute, in 2021, the overall shipment of global lithium -ion batteries shipped 562.4GWh, a significant increase of 91%year -on -year; energy storage battery shipments; 66.3GWh, an increase of 132.6%year -on -year; high -industry lithium battery GGII predicts that global power battery shipments will reach 1550GWh in 2025, and energy storage battery shipments will reach 476GWh. Benefiting from the rapid development of photovoltaic installations and the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, PVP demand has grown rapidly. "Our industrial -grade products take a month of supply, and other products will take 2 months to 3 months of supply period. Food -grade products have been waiting longer. Now they need to wait until the year. Xing Xiaoliang said frankly. How long does this kind of tight supply last? Xing Xiaoliang said: "On the one hand, we will have 20,000 tons of production capacity in the second quarter of next year, and the company's PVP will reach more than 30,000 tons at that time; on the other hand, it depends on when European production capacity will be recovered. It will be difficult to recover European capacity recovery within half a year. . "Guoxin Securities Research reported that" in 2022, the potential demand for lithium batteries and photovoltaic silver powder for PVP was 11,600 tons and 0.20 million tons, respectively. It is expected that by 2025 to 33,100 tons and 0.40 million tons, respectively. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, the global PVP is expected to exist of 0.08 million tons, 00,700 tons, and 0.26 million tons. Intersection On the raw material side, the price of BDO rose was insufficient. Wang Donghai, an analyst of Longzhong Information, told the Securities Daily reporter: "The main downstream PTMEG industry of BDO is weak due to the weaknesses of the terminals, and the performance of the golden nine season is average.

At present, the price of BDO14250 yuan/ton is also a recent high price. The long -term market is under pressure. The price is difficult to reach a height of 30,000 yuan/ton in the later period. "The industry agreed that the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term is difficult to alleviate, raw materials are difficult to rise, and PVP prices have room for upward, and the profitability of related manufacturers is expected to make good achievements. The new open source realizes operating income of 678 million yuan in the first half of this year, a year -on -year increase of year -on -year growth, year -on -year growth 26.48%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 146 million yuan, an increase of 75.05%year -on -year; net profit after deduction was 162 million yuan, an increase of 217.96%year -on -year. 46.58%, higher than 29.25%last year. The main business indicators reached a record high in the same period. The global market capacity does not exceed 100,000 tons. This is the first time for more than half a century to appear so tight. PVP is also very small in new energy batteries, but because the production capacity of new energy batteries has expanded faster, the growth rate in the future is relatively large, which brings this wave of market. "PVP supply and demand contradictions will increase the tide of production. In this regard, Xing Xiaoliang believes:" In fact, PVP is not a very tight product in history. The competition before 2021 is still fierce. It is not easy to expand production. Essence For newly -in companies, it takes three to five years to develop downstream customers. Pharmaceutical -grade products need to obtain drug production licenses and customer certification. Certification is not a short -term process. But how to survive after expansion is also more severe. "In Xing Xiaoliang's opinion, if a new factory is built now, it takes three years to adapt to the market. When it is fully adapted to the market, this wave of market is over, and it will enter the cruelty of survival. Full, the market is very limited, so when the market is relatively good, it is not suitable for large -scale expansion. Pictures | Site Cool Hero Bao Map Network Production | Zhang Xin Nuclear Editor | Bai Baoyu Final Trial | Dong Shaopeng