"Come on in the air"!The price of lithium carbonate exceeds 510,000 yuan/ton. When will lithium price return to "rational"?

After exceeding 500,000 yuan/ton, the price increase of lithium carbonate is still continuing, and this has further strengthened the game upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.

The price of lithium carbonate in the air exceeds 510,000 yuan/ton

After exceeding the 500,000 yuan/ton mark, the price of lithium carbonate has recently trended. According to data released on September 23, Shanghai Steel Union showed that the battery -grade lithium carbonate rose 1500 yuan/ton on that day, and the average price was reported at 511,500 yuan/ton. 517,000 yuan/ton average price.

In this year, the price of lithium carbonate has been maintained at about 470,000 yuan/ton for a period of time. The price of August has continued to rise in August. In the past month, the price increase of lithium carbonate is about 8%. At the price of 280,000 yuan/ton, the current price of lithium carbonate rose more than 80%.

The hot sales of domestic new energy vehicles have driven the high increase in the demand for upstream raw materials to increase the price of lithium. In addition, the rise in the price of lithium carbonate in this round also has the increase in lithium concentrate prices as support. Australian lithium miner Pilbara (Pilbara) held a lithium concentrate auction event on September 20, with auction transaction price of $ 6988/ton, an increase of 10%from the previous round (August 2) auction price. The actual price increase was 14.3%, and the corresponding tax cost of lithium carbonate was about 510,000 yuan/ton.

In the short term of crazy lithium prices, it seems that it will continue for a while. Huaxi Securities believes that the most loose stage of lithium carbonate supply has passed. In the fourth quarter of this year, the domestic Qinghai salt lake has a decline in the output. , Demand or accelerated release, China's lithium salt supply and demand structure will be further nervous, and the price of lithium salts is expected to maintain the current upward trend. It does not rule out that the price of lithium salt in the premium season of the stock market in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year will reach a new high situation.

When the rise in lithium price increases, when will the intensive pressure of the industry return to rationality?

The high rise in upstream lithium prices has made the profit of the new energy vehicle industry chain more obvious. The Secretary -General of the Federation of Communication issued a document on September 8th that from the perspective of the interim, especially the performance of lithium ore companies, the net profit margin of the lithium mining business of the leading enterprise is about 70%, and the profit margin of the upstream battery companies is 8% The left and right are good, and the profit margin of the vehicle company is about 5%.

In the first quarter of this year, because the price increased in time, the gross profit margin of Ningde Times suddenly fell to 14.48%, which once set a record low. The rise in lithium prices will cause the sensitive nerves of power battery companies to be stimulated first.

For the vehicle factory, the continuous rise in the price of lithium salt will lead to further increase in the production cost of power batteries, which will make downstream vehicle manufacturers profit. When the price of lithium carbonate returned to 500,000 yuan/ton a few days ago, Shanghai Steel Union analyst Qu Yinfei said that the price of lithium salt reached 500,000 yuan/ton, which is an important psychological early warning line for the market.

Chen Shihua, deputy secretary -general of the China Automobile Association, said in August this year that in the first half of this year, the profit of China's automobile industry decreased by 25.5%year -on -year, and the revenue of the same period was only 4%. This was very unhealthy. Especially in the field of new energy vehicles, the profits of upstream companies have increased, but downstream companies "can't even drink soup."

However, next year, the high -priced phenomenon of lithium prices may be alleviated due to the mismatch of the supply and demand pattern. According to Shanghai Steel Union calculations, after entering 2023, with many projects such as salt lakes and pyroxia, the growth rate of lithium resources may officially surpass the demand growth rate in 2023. Essence The supply of supply brought by the recycling of lithium battery is supplemented, so as to usher in the cumulative database of about three consecutive years. At that time, the lithium price may gradually return to rationality with the correction of the supply and demand structure.

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