In the Ningde era, I am happy to worry
Author:Taoism is always reasonable Time:2022.09.23
In the business world, there is no undefeated king, whether or not or not, uniformly uniformly rivers and lakes.
In September, the total market value of the stock price of Ningde Times fell below the trillion yuan mark. From the perspective of the stock price of the Ningde Times in August, in less than a month, the stock price of the Ningde Times fell more than 26%. 340 billion yuan. The night guarding is more difficult than entrepreneurship, which is vividly reflected in King Ning.
In the Ningde era, Chu Ge, the power battery accounts for more than 40%of the cost of new energy vehicles. In the first half of the car building, Ning Wang still can carry the battery to make the car company see the driving force in the second half. Started micro. In this year, Ningde was even hit by two major crit.
First of all, Tesla no longer loves King Ning, and turned his head to fall in love with BYD; then, Weilai also showed great interest in BYD; without seeing the car, the Xiaomi car, which hear his voice first, also announced that he was at the same time as it was with the same time as BYD cooperated with Ningde Times. In addition to the change in purchasing, car companies are obviously more ambitious.
It is reported that car manufacturers such as Weilai, GAC Ean, Zero Run and Weimar have successively started the construction of self -developed battery projects and battery factories. The United States has built an electric vehicle battery factory, and Xinwangda joined forces to build a power battery production base.
Are they floating, or did King Ning raise a knife? Obviously, the latter needs an opportunity to prove itself.
Or technology is king?
Looking at the past resumes of Ningde Times, it is not difficult to find that this company that claims to be the king in the new energy era has indeed torn out the list of countless lithium battery industries. For example, the world's first CTP technology and mass production; the world's first 811 battery -level 811 battery; developed the world's longest life battery and applied to Jinjiang Energy Storage Power Station.
In 2022, Ningde Times was more profound in technology. In June, the third -generation CTP Kirin battery was released. The system integration hit a global high and the volume utilization rate exceeded 72%. It can support the realization of 1,000 kilometers of battery life. In September, the first MTB technology was launched.
Rather than saying that Ningde was an out -of -the -box technical control, it was better to say that it was more anxious to wash away the low -end imprint. The R & D of Ningde Times has been publicly ridiculed by the technology circle. Previously, analysts with national gold certificate bluntly stated that the power battery industry lacked high -tech attributes. It was the Ningde era.
Frankly speaking, compared with mainstream technology companies, the R & D investment in Ningde Times is really not high. According to media statistics, the R & D costs of the Ningde era were only 58%of Xiaomi, 46%of Meituan, 31%of Baidu, 15%of Tencent, and 13%of Alibaba. "Rush on Weibo hot search.
To this day, the Ningde era had to re -examine the emphasis on technology.
On the one hand, when King Ning gradually lost the right to speak in the industry, seeing that the wings of car companies and other second -tier battery manufacturers gradually hardened. Only technology supremacy can recover a city for Ningde Times. For example, the integration of the Kirin battery system has hit a new global high. Although the mass production has to wait until 2023, many car companies such as the ideal car and Nezha Automobile have actively interacted with the Ningde Times after the press conference, showing no concealment, showing no concealment. Desire for cooperation.
Some people say that the kernel of the car building is in the final analysis of the upgrade of battery technology. Next, this thorough is destined to be more intense. How important is battery technology for new energy vehicles? In addition to the most intuitive battery life, it can also bring other structural efficiency. Taking the current CTC technology that battery manufacturers are studying in harmony as an example.
According to Musk, CTC technology can save 370 components for cars, reduce the body by 10%for the body, reduce the cost of battery per kilowatt -hour to 7%. After CTC technology, the range of electric vehicles is expected to exceed 800 kilometers. In the research reports of many institutions, CTC is considered to be the key core technologies that determine the winning and defeat of new energy vehicles in the next stage.
It is undeniable that once any battery manufacturer really breaks through, it will inevitably rise by the wind.
On the other hand, technology first is not only to solve the anxiety of customer sources, but more importantly, power battery companies are too dependent on direct materials. If production efficiency cannot be raised, it will be directly related to subsequent survival. The most typical is the Ningde era. From 2017 to 2020, the direct materials of the Ningde era accounted for about 90%of the battery cost.
Improvement of R & D will undoubtedly optimize production to the greatest extent. According to the Ningde period semi -annual report, during the reporting period, the company continued to increase investment in R & D and investment. In the first half of 2022, R & D expenses investment reached 5.77 billion yuan, an increase of 106.5%year -on -year, and artificial artificially developed artificial artificial artificial artificial artificial articles, and artificially developed artificial labor Intelligent, intelligent analysis and cloud computing allowed the production of only one billionth in the speed of 1.7 seconds of production of the production of production, which increased production efficiency by 75%and reduced energy consumption by 10%.
Ningde Times desperately wanted to tear off the label of "low -end technology", and gradually tasted the sweetness of technical dividends. However, with the outbreak of the vehicle -made power and the entire power battery industry, it was obviously not that simple to cultivate technical protection. Earlier, Ningde Times innovated in the prosecution of patent infringement.
According to public reports, the Ningde Times claimed a total of 188 million yuan in CGA. By May, this number turned nearly three times to 518 million yuan. It is reported that the Ningde Times prosecuted the five patents of China Innovation Air Infringement, including 3 invention patents and 2 practical new patents. However, according to data evaluation data of the patent value of smart buds, the value assessment of the five patents is US $ 930,000, $ 3600, $ 210,000, $ 2.96 million, and 1.14 million US dollars, totaling 5.243 million US dollars, equivalent to about RMB 35.488 million Essence
However, the asking price on the side of Ning is as high as 500 million. The number of different numbers of front and rear dispatch reflects the industry's emphasis on technology. Among them, it is not only as simple as the patent assessment. The market value measured by numbers. In the Ningde era, the technical "butcher knife" was raised, and for his own status, he did not hesitate to kill the Quartet.
Is it a good opportunity for new energy zero carbon transformation?
In fact, there are still many opportunities before the Ningde era, especially from carbon reduction to zero carbon. The global new energy plan is becoming more and more intense. From a long -term perspective, several industries must be technical and equipment in the future from technology and equipment in the future. , Value Chain, as well as a related ecological foundation, experience an inevitable "green industry revolution".
The goal of domestic carbon emissions is to reach its peak by 2030, and carbon neutrality will be achieved before 2060. Data show that in 2021, carbon emissions in the power industry and transportation industry accounted for 38.9%and 20.3%of the global carbon emissions, respectively. Target.
Taking the Ningde Times as an example, it is reported that since 2019, King Ning has set up a sustainable development committee to continue to calculate the carbon footprint of each production link of the battery product. In 2021, the total number of photovoltaic power generation in Ningde Times reached 47.65 million KWh, and the use of green power accounted for 22%. In 2021, a total of 351 energy -saving projects were promoted, reducing more than 600,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions.
Over the years, the carbon reduction measures in Ningde Times are not small. Some media have reported that last year, the production process of the Ningde Times was the production process of the BMW BMW Pure Motors IX3 battery cell. It has achieved 100%use of green power; its wholly -owned subsidiary "Sichuan Times" Yibin factory has become the world's first battery zero carbon factory.
Of course, not only in the Ningde era, the entire power battery industry was visible to the naked eye of zero carbon, which also indirectly became a major obstacle to the future of Ning Wang's future domination. After all, BMW, Mercedes -Benz, Volkswagen, Volvo and other car companies have requested the suppliers to trace and declare the carbon footprint of the entire life cycle of power batteries in the future.
In other words, those companies that do not meet the standards of carbon emissions may be difficult to travel in the market in the future.
In June this year, in June this year, the Hive Energy signed a lithium battery zero -carbon industrial park project agreement with Sichuan Dazhou City, with a planned total investment of 17 billion yuan. Coincidentally, in 2022, the perspective power was the first to release the first batch of zero -carbon batteries in the world, and it will build a new power battery super factory in Kentucky and Navalmradradrara, Spain, with the planned production capacity of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi -Tech plans to build a zero -carbon factory with the public in Europe and build a zero -carbon base of 400,000 tons in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia.
Looking at the entire new energy circle, Fu Neng Technology, Yimei Lithium Energy, Penghui Energy, China Innovation Airlines, Fudi Battery, Jiewei Power and other companies are re -planning carbon footprints. "Footprint Evaluation Guide". But is the new energy zero carbon transformation really so smooth?
You know, in most countries around the world, firepower is the main force in the power structure. Taking our country as an example, the proportion of thermal power is as high as 71%. This is a level that is difficult to break through in the process of zero carbon. Even in the zero carbon industrial park of the enterprise, it is only zero carbon in a small area. It can achieve zero -carbon target, which is more of Yibin's special geographical location.
It is reported that more than 80%of the power of Yibin in the Ningde era from Yibin's unique geographical location comes from renewable hydropower, which can reduce 400,000 tons of carbon emissions each year. But once the advantage of losing natural conditions, the difficulty to implement zero carbon can be imagined. In addition, zero carbon is not only aimed at a single enterprise, at least in the power battery industry, the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain must keep up with this rhythm.
It is easy to urge yourself, and it seems not so easy to spur others. In this regard, I am afraid that King Ning is hard to do.
What did King Ning get "milk live" supply chain?
The supply chain problem is not only reflected in zero carbon target.
In order to achieve zero carbon in the Ningde era, 80%of the suppliers were conducted at a chassis, involving 14 material types, including graphite, copper foil, isolation film, electrolyte, aluminum profile ... 2. Supplier's energy consumption inspection in 2020, investigation of circulating materials, and report on social responsibility reports, etc. It is true that as an industry giant in Ningde Times, many suppliers used to "milk live".
According to incomplete statistics, since 2021, the Ningde era has issued over 23 billion orders, involving all aspects such as ternary materials, lithium battery equipment, diaphragm, electrolytes and solvents, and structural components. From the perspective of order distribution, Ningde's Ningde, Ningde Times sent a total of 19 orders to the industrial chain, of which the lithium battery equipment was the largest, up to 11, and the total amount reached 12.411 billion yuan. Under the blessing of King Ning, these companies have made a lot of money. According to public information, last year, a total of 27 listed companies in the Ningde Times supply chain disclosed their performance express reports or performance trailers. %.
In 2022, His Majesty in Ningde ushered in a large number of liters. In June, the first new can apply for the GEM IPO. The Ningde era was one of the top ten shareholders and the third largest supplier. The purchase price is 299.88 yuan/share, which is called "the most expensive new shares in the year". In the Ningde Times in 2019, 2020, and 2021, it was the largest customer for three consecutive years.
Taking advantage of the Dongfeng of Ningde Times, these supply chain companies all shook up. For King Ning, it is half -mixed. For a long time, Ningde Times has adhered to the principle of checks and balances, and there are many downstream cooperative manufacturers to resist the systemic risks of the industry and support different suppliers to avoid the risk of a unique family.
For example, there are more than 6 suppliers in the field of positive materials in Ningde Times.
To this day, these companies are growing a little bit. While being able to feed the Ningde era, I am afraid that they are slowly breaking the balanced situation of Ning Wang's hard work and long business. Taking Wanrun New Energy as an example, as far as the current point of view, in addition to the Ningde era, the business covered by this company also has BYD and China Innovation Airlines. Among them, BYD's blade batteries are the positive electrode materials produced by Wanrun New Energy.
These two are exactly the death of the Ningde era.
The impact of raw material supply on battery companies cannot be underestimated. Previously, due to the continuous increase of raw materials, the gross profit margin of Ningde Times gradually began to decline. The gross profit margin in 2017 was 36.29%. By 2021, the gross profit margin was only 26.28%. 27%. Once these companies stand up, not only the "nasal interest" of King Yanging, the bargaining power will naturally further improve.
This is the most unwanted side in Ningde. It is true that no one will sit at the end of the Ningde Times. The principle of control over the supply chain is also undergoing subtle changes. From checks and balances to fighting, it will be added, but it is just a few years. It is reported that the Ningde Times' shares in the supply chain are becoming more and more obvious.
As of the end of September 2021, 75 companies had invested in Ningde Times, with a total subscription amount of 15.457 billion yuan. Among them, 48 enterprises were invested in long -term equity, with a total subscription amount of 10.97 billion yuan. In addition, 27 were to strengthen the industrial chain and cooperative industrial chain -related investment.
In Ningde, no one could take it lightly in the dangers of the new energy rivers and lakes, even if it was the former king.
The Tao is always reasonable, and once used the name of the new media, the Internet and the technology circle new media. This article is an original article.
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