The "midstream dilemma" of power battery positive material manufacturers: receivables, inventory, and bills are vacated ...

Economic Observation Network reporter Zheng Chenzheng has landed in the capital market on the "fiery track" of power batteries.

On September 20th, Hubei Wanrun New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (Wanrun New Energy, 688275.SH) issued an announcement to disclose its "online purchase purchase situation and winning rate" of its science and technology board 376.45 million households, the effective purchase multiple is as high as 3252.24 times; after the return mechanism is launched, the final winning rate of online issuance is only 0.04198703%.

On September 21, Wanrun Xinneng also announced its online subscription: 348 online investors managed 7,942 valid quotation and distribution objects for offline purchase, and the number of valid subscriptions on the Internet also reached 18.423 billion shares.

According to the issuance announcement of Wanrunxin on September 16, the company's issuance shares are 21.3038 million shares, the issuance price is 299.88 yuan/share; The equity calculation is 75.25 times the P / E ratio.

The issuance price of nearly 300 yuan/share also allowed Wanrunxin to surpass the issue price of 237.5 yuan/share, which was just listed on September 19th (301327.SZ). Price IPO ".

"Money is stupid, I don't understand. A company that completely looks at the big customers' faces to eat is probably the first day of listing." In a investment exchange group added by the reporter, an investor commented on this.

Chen Tongtong, a researcher at a large fund company in Shenzhen, also told the reporter of the Economic Observation Network, "The competitive pattern of the positive pole material industry is not ideal.

"Very hot, make money very much"

Wanrun Xinmang, who seized the title of "highest -priced IPO" in the next year, is based on the introduction of its prospectus. And lithium manganate and so on. From the perspective of income composition, lithium iron phosphate is the main source of its main business income, accounting for more than 90%of the company's overall income. Lithium iron phosphate is the core material for manufacturing new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage batteries.

According to data from the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, in 2020, the market share of Van Run Xinneng's lithium iron phosphate products in the positive pole materials in China was 13.5%, and product shipments ranked third.

Judging from the data such as related issuance inquiries, the company is obviously popular. The reporter checked from the inquiry details that the median quotation of the agency was 315.88 yuan/share. Among them, the Huaxia Fund provided the highest valid quotation. Its intended purchase price was 389.04 yuan/share, and the 146 distribution targets managed by it had a total of 791 million shares.

The reason why Wan Runxin can trigger many institutions and investors is related to the high booming track, the power battery industry chain.

"New stock quotation has always been a game in the small circle between institutions. In order to be shortlisted, the institutions will relatively increase the quotation. In addition, the lithium -wire track has a high prosperity. The pursuit of the market. "Liu Qiujun, an analyst at Shihao Capital, told the Economic Observation Network reporter.

Liu Shengyu, a partner of Gao He Investment Management, also told reporters that positive materials are the core key materials of lithium batteries. The characteristics directly determine the energy density, cycle life, and safety performance of the lithium battery, which will affect the comprehensive performance of the battery.

"The proportion of orthopedic materials in the cost of lithium battery materials reached 30%-40%, and its cost directly determined the overall cost of the battery." Liu Shengyu pointed out.

Zhao Bingpeng, a craftsman of a positive pole material enterprise in Zhejiang, told reporters that there are four main types of positive materials commonly used in lithium -ion batteries, namely lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate and new ternary materials. "Sanyo materials and lithium iron phosphate are the two most mainstream materials in the market in the market. The two parties have their own advantages and disadvantages in terms of cost and performance. The manufacturers will be flexibly adopted according to different product types." Zhao Bingpeng said.

In the process of looking through the financial reports of the listed companies in the Zhengji Materials Industry, the reporter felt the "digital" manifestation of the high prosperity of the power battery track.

According to Wan Run Xinneng's prospectus data, the company's annual revenue in 2019 is only 766 million yuan, and the net profit deducts non-net profit is -79.7357 million yuan. In half a year, Wan Run Xinneng achieved a revenue of 3.395 billion yuan, and the deduction of non -net profit gradually increased to 482 million yuan in the first half of this year.

In the same period, such as German nano (300769.SZ), Rongbai Technology (688005.SH), and Dangsheng Technology (300073.SZ) head listed companies, all of which have also shown "double double performance "In the growth trend, the three companies achieved revenue in the first half of this year that surpassed the whole year last year.

For example, the German nano, with the highest revenue, achieved revenue of 7.557 billion yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 492.89%year -on -year. Rongbai Technology and Dangsheng Technology also surrendered the "transcript" of 221.62%and 204.92%year -on -year in the first half of this year.

In this year's interim report, Germany pointed out that the company's performance growth in the first half of the year mainly comes from the breakthrough of power battery technology and the optimization and upgrading of lithium iron phosphate orthopedic materials, which has promoted the rapid broadness of lithium iron phosphate orthopedic material market space; and new energy sources The continuous policy dividend of the automotive industry and the energy storage industry has also promoted the high -speed growth of lithium iron phosphate orthopedic material market. In Liu Shengyu's view, power batteries are typical industries based on the downstream application market. With the volume of the new energy vehicle market, the positive pole materials in the middle reaches of the power battery industry chain have also ushered in rapid growth.

"At present, many countries have clarified the timetable for fuel vehicles forbidden to sell. Among them, the Netherlands and Norway will ban all traditional fuel vehicles in 2025. Germany and California will ban traditional fuel vehicles in 2030. China proposed that China proposed that In 2050, the full exit of fuel vehicles was achieved. As the prices of new energy vehicles continued to decline, charging piles became more and more popular, and the sales of new energy vehicles in the future are expected to continue to grow. The growth of new energy vehicle companies will drive the power vehicle power battery The demand for new energy vehicle power batteries will drive the demand for positive electrode materials for power batteries. "Liu Shengyu analyzed to reporters.

According to the survey data of the High Industry Research Institute (GGII) in March this year, the shipments of the Chinese positive pole material market in 2021 were 1.13 million tons, an increase of 116%year -on -year. Among them, the volume of lithium iron phosphate orthopedic materials was 480,000 tons, an increase of 258%year -on -year; the shipment volume of ternary positive poles was 430,000 tons, an increase of 80%year -on -year; %; Lithium manganate orthopedic material shipments were 109,000 tons, an increase of 60%year -on -year.

"The orthopedic material is the" Gold "track in the market now, and each institution has high performance expectations for companies in the track." Chen Tongtong told reporters.

According to the research report of Guoxin Securities in July this year, the demand for lithium iron phosphate battery in 2025 is expected to reach 710GWh. Among them, the global power battery demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase from 46GWH in 2020 to 469GWH in 2025, and the market penetration rate will reach 37%; and the demand for lithium iron phosphate for global energy storage batteries in 2025 is expected The penetration rate will reach 60%.

"According to the consumption of 0.25 million tons/GWH lithium iron phosphate single consumption, the demand for lithium iron phosphate orthopedic materials in 2025 is expected to reach 1.8 million tons." Guoxin Securities analyzed.

In this context, the companies in the positive electrode material track are stepping up the pace of production capacity expansion. For example, this time, the Wan Run new energy that will be officially listed on the science and technology board will be planned to raise 800 million yuan to build Hongmai Hi -Tech High Performance lithium -ion battery material projects, the project will be constructed in two phases, including 30,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, 20,000 tons of iron phosphate in the second phase, and the planning construction period is two years.

Germany also stated in this year's interim report, "In order to seize market opportunities, the company continued to promote the construction of the project during the reporting period. Construction, and entered the trial production stage in May 2022, the annual output of 80,000 tons of iron phosphate projects in Yibin Defang, Qujing Defang's annual output of 110,000 tons of new type of phosphate system project, Qujing Defang's creation industry The annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium supplementation project is under construction as planned, and it is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. "

"It's embarrassed, helpless"

In the process of visiting relevant persons in the lithium battery industry chain, many interviewees pointed out to the reporter that the current industry structure of the positive pole materials is not ideal. Behind the seemingly prosperous market appearance, the positive electrode material enterprise is hidden behind the seemingly prosperous market appearance. Such as the cruel reality of "sandwich biscuits" and "squeezed on both ends".

For example, in the prospectus of Wanrun New Energy, the reporter noticed that in the supply clause signed by the company and the downstream large customers, there are the following expressions:

"If the company did not complete the annual supply supply of Ganfeng lithium batteries before March 31, 2023, the company promised to make appropriate benefits on the purchase price of its unsuccessful supplementary supply. The company's annual confession has not been completed a few days ago, and the company promises to compensate BYD's actual losses due to unpaid goods ";

"If the company does not complete the annual confession of the Ningde Times, the proportion of the supply agreed in accordance with the agreed supply of the agreement is 3%, 5%, and 10%in accordance with the undertaking supply supply volume, then the company needs to bear the corresponding corresponding to Ningde Times. The amount of liquidated damages was 7.056 million yuan, 11.76 million yuan, and 23.52 million yuan, respectively. "

From this statement, if the production capacity of Wanrun New Energy cannot meet the needs of downstream customers, it will not only reduce the price of the product, but also need to bear huge liability for compensation.

However, for this kind of "harsh" supply clause, in the eyes of Zhang Quan, the market manager of a lithium battery manufacturer in Guangdong, it belongs to the "normal phenomenon" in the positive material industry.

Zhang Quan analyzed to reporters that, as the midstream of the power battery industry, the positive material materials are not currently in a monopoly company, and the upstream and downstream concentrations of the industry are high. It also depends on a few suppliers upstream.

"For companies that do positive materials, look down, the goods are either sold to the Ningde era or sold to BYD; looking up, basically it is purchased from Green, Huayou Cobalt, and Tianqi Lithium. When raw materials, what the supplier said is what is, when the product is selling, what the customer says is. "On the phone, Zhang Quan told reporters. "You don't want to accept these terms. In Ningde Times and BYD, you can find other companies to purchase. Similarly, lithium carbonate in upstream, you can't buy it," he said further.

Zhang Quan said this "embarrassment" in Wanrun Xinneng's prospectus: from 2019 to 2021, the company's top five customers' sales amount accounted for current operating income of 88.87%and 84.56, respectively. %And 92.21%; the proportion of the procurement amount of the first five raw material suppliers accounted for the total amount of the current raw material procurement, respectively as high as 64.58%, 57.08%, and 65.45%, respectively.

In other words, as one of the leading companies in the field of positive materials, Wanrun New Energy, which ranked third in the market in the market in 2020, not only suffered from serious "big customer dependence", but for the upper reaches upstream There are also risks of high concentration of suppliers.

Typical "sandwich biscuits"! Moreover, such a situation is obviously not the lonely case of Wan Run Xinneng.

For example, Rongbai Technology, from January to June, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, its top five customers' sales amount accounted for current operating income of 80.86%, 85.06%, 84.17%, and 80.46%, respectively.

And this situation seems difficult to change. For example, in a investor survey published by Germany's nano on September 16, the response of the relevant person in charge of the German nano in response to the high concentration of the company's customers was: "Company customer concentration characteristics characteristics Consistent with the downstream market structure, lithium -ion batteries present a concentrated oligopoly market, and the market share of head lithium -ion battery companies has a high market share and shows an upward trend. Based on the above reasons, the customer structure is expected to be significantly dispersed in the short term. "

In response, Liu Shengyu pointed out to reporters that although the positive materials accounted for a relatively high cost of lithium battery, the competition pattern was not ideal because of its low concentration of its industry. According to the data of the industry consulting agency EV TANK, in 2021, the top ten companies in the Zhengji Materials have a market share of less than 50%, and the market structure has not yet formed. Therefore, "the right to speak upstream and downstream in the industrial chain is low."

"The positive electrode material is the key link of the power battery industry chain, and there are many new entrants. On the one hand, downstream power battery manufacturers will produce some positive electrode materials for their quality and supply chain guarantee; on the other hand, upstream raw material manufacturers and recycling Enterprises have resource advantages, and they will also lay down, and to a certain extent, they also occupy the market space of positive pole material manufacturers. "Liu Shengyu further analyzed to reporters.

At the same time, the price of upstream raw materials is not controlled by midstream manufacturers of power batteries such as Wanrun Xinneng. According to statistics from Shanghai Steel Union, as of September 16, the price of battery -grade lithium carbonate exceeded the 500,000 yuan/ton mark, reaching 502,500 yuan/ton. In comparison, according to the information of the Van Run New Energy prospectus, the market price of lithium carbonate rose from 53,000 yuan/ton in early 2021 to about 275,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2021, and the price rose sharply by 418.87%in one year.

From the financial data announced by Wanrun New Energy, the reporter also noticed that its gross profit margin in the first half of the year decreased significantly from the end of last year, from 31.19%to 22.09%. In addition, Rongbai Technology's sales gross profit margin disclosed in the interim report this year was 12.86%, which was also 2.48 percentage points from the end of last year. The end of the year decreased by 1.04 percentage points and 0.49 percentage points.

In this regard, the market staff of a positive material enterprise in Beijing told reporters on the phone: "The price of the raw materials is rising by 'times', but we cannot also rise by 'times'. In this market Enterprises will take out a lower quotation than you, and the entry threshold for the positive electrode materials is not too high. Some large battery manufacturers are still expanding to the middle and upstream to build their own production line. "

"The positive material is facing the pressure of high -priced lithium carbonate in its upstream, but the ability to conduct rising costs to lithium battery manufacturers is limited. Therefore, the positive material manufacturer has become a‘ sandwich biscuits ’, and the two ends are squeezed.” Liu Shengyu said.

Received money, inventory, notes

Of course, "sandwich biscuits" are still awake for their basic understanding.

For example, Wanrun New Energy made it clear in the prospectus: The company's main products are lithium iron phosphate orthopedic materials in the midstream of the new energy battery industry chain. For manufacturers, the downstream is lithium battery manufacturing enterprises such as power batteries. The terminal is the new energy vehicle and energy storage industry. Based on the company's location in the industrial chain, the company has lithium carbonate manufacturers with lithium resource production capacity and downstream power battery manufacturers "All dependence is dependent."

Therefore, in this context, despite the demand of the outbreak of the downstream "blowout" outbreak, the positive pole material industry shows a scene of prosperity and prosperity, but it lacks the embarrassing positioning of "right to speak" in the industry, which has also become it. The undercurrent below the waves is hidden in the financial report data of related companies, especially accounts receivable and inventory. For example, the data of Wanrun Xinneng's prospectus shows that the company's operating cash flow continues to be negative during the first half of 2020 to 2022, and it is corresponding to the rising inventory and accounts receivable: this year, this year In half a year, Wanrun Xinneng's operating cash flow was -1.371 billion yuan, accounts receivable and inventory of 1.05 billion yuan and 1.534 billion yuan, respectively. In 2020, these data were only -931.401 million yuan, 5.7 5.7, respectively. 100 million yuan and 107 million yuan.

Similarly, Rongbai Technology and Dangsheng Technology are no exception. Among them, Rongbai Technology's receivables have risen from 814 million yuan disclosed in the 2020 annual report to 3.631 billion yuan disclosed in the 2022 intermediate report, and the inventory has also increased from 584 million yuan to 3.214 billion yuan in the same period; The accounts receivable of Sheng Technology also rose from 968 million yuan disclosed by the 2020 annual report to 5 billion yuan disclosed by the interim report this year, and the inventory increased from 523 million yuan to 2.376 billion yuan in the same period.

Regarding the changes in the above financial indicators, the reporter of the Economic Observation Network called Dangsheng Technology Securities Affairs Department on September 19. Relevant staff of the company explained to reporters that the fluctuations of gross profit margins are mainly due to the rise in upstream raw materials, but for inventory, but for inventory, inventory The climbing of accounts receivables did not respond positively, but emphasized that "the relevant situation is within the control of the company."

Regarding the abnormal phenomenon of the above financial indicators, Chen Tongtong told reporters that this is related to the sales model of the positive material industry. At present, the main sales model of this industry includes sales and direct sales.

Regarding the consignment, Wan Runxin said in the prospectus that "the consignment model is sent to the customer's warehouse or foundry to form a certain inventory according to customer requirements to prepare for the customer's use. The agreed time and method checks the actual number of use with the company, and will be issued and settled in accordance with the contract according to the contract.

"The orthopedic material is not like the kind of" one -handed money, one -handed delivery "field, and its sales model adopts credit sales. This means that with the expansion of the company's revenue, accounts receivable and inventory will increase. And this will occupy a large number of operating funds of the company, leading to the weakening of the liquidity of the company. "Chen Tongtong analyzed to reporters.

In addition to account receivables and inventory issues, the air rotation of bills is another major problem facing the positive material manufacturer.

For example, Wanrunxin's explicitly stated in the prospectus that "the net profit of the company's net profit and operating activities is large, and the amount of net profit generated by business activities is large. In addition to changing factors such as balances, the main is mainly caused by the upstream and downstream payment of the industry in the industry. Usually the company receives the bills paid by the customer, and then endorses the upstream raw material suppliers, engineering and equipment suppliers, and Xiangxiang. The bank is discounted. "

Regarding the severity of the receipt of bills, Wanrun Xinneng also had a clear information disclosure in the prospectus: "During the reporting period (2019-2021), the company uses the bill receiving method to sell the payment method to the customer's current operating income to the current operating income The (tax included) ratio was 91.1.18%, 90.08%, and 100.72%, respectively, and the proportion of payable bills of receivables in raw materials from suppliers accounted for 55.89%, 34.74%, and 49.11%in the current total procurement. "

In Chen Tongtong's view, such behaviors will bring a lot of risks to mid -upstream companies.

"Enterprises feel that the bills of big customers will not be bad. That is the good situation of large downstream customers now. If the industry will appear cyclical in the future, at this time, a little 'wind blows and grass moves'. For example The chain reaction, the entire midstream industry will face a liquidity crisis. "Chen Tongtong said.

In addition, the continuous rise in inventory in the consignment model may also bring the risk of greatly impairment of inventory.

When looking through Wan Run Xinneng's "Review of the Review of the first public issuance of stocks and the application for the application document on the science and technology board", the reporter discovered the following: "The company's existence of some finished products cannot meet the latest market performance technical indicators. Or product performance validity requires reasons such as reasons and other reasons and some finished products. Customers for their own business reasons are expected to achieve high sales difficulty for the products formed by the product. 10,000 yuan, the sales ratio is low after the period. "

In this regard, Zhao Bingpeng told reporters that the current technical iteration in the field of orthopedic materials is relatively fast, and medium and long -term inventory is a problem faced by the industry due to insufficient performance indicators.

"Now the market demand is relatively large, and there are few medium- and long -term inventory backlogs, but maybe a new material is suddenly coming out one day, and the original production capacity is directly made into backward production capacity. No one wants it." Zhao Zhao Bingpeng said.

In this regard, Wan Run Xinneng also reminded in the prospectus that "If the mainstream technical route of power batteries will change in the future, such as other lithium battery positive materials in the safety and production costs, the essential improvement of production costs, and breakthroughs in the development of new generations of materials. Progress, etc., and the company does not master related technologies in time, and effectively develops and launch positive material products that meet market demand, will lose the advantages of technology and market share. "In Chen Tiandong's view While expanding production capacity, we should focus on research and development.

"The industry pattern is still evolving. When the future power battery industry is cyclical, the positive pole material enters the Red Sea competition, which company can establish a technical barrier faster to get out of the current dilemma faster." She added that she said that she said that she said Essence

In a survey event organized on July 20 this year, when the relevant executives of Sheng Technology have bluntly stated, "the industry has developed rapidly, the upstream and downstream production capacity expands rapidly, the planning capacity of the positive pole material industry is very large, and there is indeed an excess capacity risk of excess capacity. . Once the technical route is adjusted, excess capacity will face greater risks. When Sheng Technology has always grasped the two rhythm: the rhythm of technology development and market development must not only "fast forward 'to meet market demand, but also not to advance' to avoid technology to avoid technology Risk of route adjustment and overcapacity. "

Regarding the evolution of the market structure of the positive pole material in the future, when the technology is promoted, the market share will depend on the level of technology development of companies in the industry rather than simple production capacity expansion.

"In the future, head enterprises will give priority to companies with priority to technology leaders and customers who have good customers." Dang Sheng Technology's person in charge said.

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